You got your money in good. If you don't post the results I'm sure Jennifear or another sng expert will tell you the correct strategical play. By showing the results this looks very much like a bad beat.

ez fold

can you explain a little more thoroughly please? i understand sng strategy to a point that i should be shoving every hand cuz i have the chip lead, blah blah. but i feel like the other 2 players are even and are both playing to get in the top 2 spots so they arent gonna like just be autofolding k hi, etc even if im jus shoving every hand. maybe my reasoning is extremely flawed, im not sure. a more in depth explanatio would help, ty.

 

Originally Posted by ucftennis12

can you explain a little more thoroughly please? i understand sng strategy to a point that i should be shoving every hand cuz i have the chip lead, blah blah. but i feel like the other 2 players are even and are both playing to get in the top 2 spots so they arent gonna like just be autofolding k hi, etc even if im jus shoving every hand. maybe my reasoning is extremely flawed, im not sure. a more in depth explanatio would help, ty.

what exactly do you mean? no one is assuming how tight they'll be folding later. this hand, in a vacuum, is a fold because what you stand to win isn't worth the risk. even if he's shoving optimally (and i'll bet a lot of people are tighter than that), A8o is def def def def a fold

Should you decide to fold:

<TABLE border=1><TBODY><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Chips</TH><TH>Prob 1st</TH><TH>Prob 2nd</TH><TH>Prob 3rd</TH><TH>Chance of a Top Two Spot </TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>ispender
</TD><TD>4525</TD><TD>0.3352</TD><TD>0.3521</TD><TD>0.3127</TD><TD>69%</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Hero
</TD><TD>5695</TD><TD>0.4219</TD><TD>0.3481</TD><TD>0.2301</TD><TD>77%</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>thecat
</TD><TD>3280</TD><TD>0.2430</TD><TD>0.2998</TD><TD>0.4573</TD><TD>54%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Should you call, and win, you win a ticket (+23% compared to folding)

Should you call, and lose, your chances of getting the seat drop to 40% (-37% compared to folding):

<TABLE border=1><TBODY><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Chips</TH><TH>Prob 1st</TH><TH>Prob 2nd</TH><TH>Prob 3rd</TH><TH>Chance of a Top Two Spot</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>ispender
</TD><TD>8375</TD><TD>0.6204</TD><TD>0.2973</TD><TD>0.0823</TD><TD>92%</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Hero
</TD><TD>1845</TD><TD>0.1367</TD><TD>0.2672</TD><TD>0.5961</TD><TD>40%</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>thecat
</TD><TD>3280</TD><TD>0.2430</TD><TD>0.4355</TD><TD>0.3215</TD><TD>68% <<<this is where your lost equity is going</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

So, you risk 37% to win 23%. To break even you must win 37/60 (61.7%) of the time to counter that risk:

<TABLE class=pptSimTable cellSpacing=0 border=1><TBODY><TR class=pptSimLabels><TH>Hand</TH><TH>Pot equity</TH><TH>Wins</TH><TH>Ties</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=pptSpec>A8o</TD><TD class=pptEV>59.87%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>14,693,282,100</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>754,345,548</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD class=pptSpec>Random hand</TD><TD class=pptEV>40.13%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>9,723,241,152</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>754,345,548</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Even if he is shoving any two cards, this is a fold.

Hope that helps!

 

Originally Posted by stevie444

snapfold

whatever he says is correct