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  1. FoRsAkEn03 FoRsAkEn03 is offline

    Pittsburgh, PA
    United States

    Posts: 467
    Joined: Jan 06

    Oct 25th, 2011 (10/25/2011 11:04pm)

    Standard local tournament, 10k stack 20 min lvls.

    10 handed

    Blinds 75/150

    Eff stack 10k

    UTG limps, tight old lady. only plays the nuts.

    hero UTG +1 raise 550 with JJ (sizing maybe too small?)

    Folded to the button, local asian dealer, played on hand in a limped pot and he c/r trip 4s on 4d4h2d board in SB. he 3bets to 1450 folded to me

    i was pending on 4bet callin shove but felt it was too early for that, then again 20 min levels? thoughts?

    i call

    POT 3125

    Flop Kd9s8s

    i checked , button bets 2500

    i tanked and ended up folding. i know this is horrid horridddd but any advice would be great. trying to get my live game up to speed/par.
  2. bazingaking bazingaking is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 146
    Joined: Apr 11

    Oct 26th, 2011 (10/26/2011 4:53pm) in reply to FoRsAkEn03

    I agree with the call pre-flop, 'cause you are pretty deep, and re-raising would leave you in an awkward position stack size wise, and its pretty early to take a stand with this kind of hand.

    On the flop, if he is legit, this will hit a decent part of his range: it hits AA, KK , AKs , AK o, and AQ suited in spades. He could also have a flush or a straight draw. The only hands he could have re-raised you with (if he is playing legit and your image isn't too loose) which don't hit this board are:

    AQ o or s but without a spade draw, QQ and TT, perhaps AJs but since you have two Jacks, it is pretty unlikely as well as a pretty loose re-raise.

    Presuming that he will bet out here, when he is checked to, nearly 100% of the time, we say he might bluff 10% of the time pre-flop and bluff again here, but aside from that he has 6+3+12 hands which hit: 21. + AQ suited in spades = 22.

    Hands which miss and you will be able to force to fold if you re-raise (presume he folds QQ to a re-raise) 15+6+6 = 27, but TT is an unlikely re-raise hand, so minus a couple out = 24.

    Hence it is more likely he has missed, as well as the chance that he is bluffing. Added to this is the size of his re-raise which looks pretty big 2,500 ---> a 3125 pot, so he may be trying to force you out of the pot with one of those hands which missed.

    If you re-raise here, I think you will win the pot the majority of the time, about 10% (the pre-flop bluffs that he will fold) + 47% (out of the 90% he will fold when he misses) = 57%, but you will have to risk your whole stack to win it.

    So 57% of the time (roughly) you will win 5,600 when he folds, hence = (0.57 x 5600) = + 3,192 play.

    But 43% of the time (roughly) you will be called by hands which dominate you, and lets say 85% of the time you lose (stats of pokerstove), therefore you lose 8,500 (the rest of your stack), 85% of the 43% of the time = -3,106 chip play.

    But 15% of the 43% of the time, you suck out on your opponent, and win his stack and the money in the pot (presuming he has the same stack) = 11,625 (8,500 + 3125) = 11,625 x 0.15 x 0.43 = +750 chips play.

    So, overall, it is a + 834 chip play. This makes the play only slightly profitable. If you believe he will call you re-raise with QQ then this play may be not profitable. This really depends upon your history of the player. But Overall I would say its a borderline re-raise I would make, but I am pretty much turning this hand into a bluff. Another benefit would be that it might improve my table image into 'scary, mad and don't mess with me' pretty quickly.
  3. FoRsAkEn03 FoRsAkEn03 is offline

    Pittsburgh, PA
    United States

    Posts: 467
    Joined: Jan 06

    Oct 26th, 2011 (10/26/2011 6:16pm) in reply to bazingaking

    thanks for the detailed response, yea if i would have drank 2 redbulls i would have probably shoved it :) hahaha. when i folded he said he did not have a King.
    Thread Starter
  4. bazingaking bazingaking is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 146
    Joined: Apr 11

    Oct 26th, 2011 (10/26/2011 6:32pm) in reply to FoRsAkEn03

    Hahah yeh well you can't win them all ;)
  5. wickedfamous wickedfamous is offline

    Vancouver, WA
    United States

    Posts: 279
    Joined: Apr 11

    Oct 26th, 2011 (10/26/2011 8:28pm) in reply to bazingaking

    Sounds like you had a competent player on the button. I would have raised larger preflop (after tanking for a minute) so you're only facing 3bets from a very tight range. With this situation, I would be folding to his 3bet preflop since I avoid playing hands out of position against TAGs.

    As played, your fold on the flop is fine. The only thing you beat is air. His 3betting range either has you crushed preflop or outflopped you with Kx. Your remaining stack of 57 BB is healthy and since you've shown the ability to fold, he's going to play more aggressively towards you in later hands.

    Don't give any attention to his verbal declaration that he did not hold a king. Most competent live players manipulate their table image through conversation whenever possible. You're only ahead in this spot a small amount of the time- he's trying to convince you that your fold was bad & put you on tilt.

    GL in your live game adventures
  6. FoRsAkEn03 FoRsAkEn03 is offline

    Pittsburgh, PA
    United States

    Posts: 467
    Joined: Jan 06

    Oct 26th, 2011 (10/26/2011 8:52pm) in reply to wickedfamous

    yea i was kinda knockin myself after i raised it to 550 with a limp already in there, he may have flatted and been a whole new fun situation oop :D
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