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Luck Meter

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  1. BetOdd BetOdd is offline

    Posts: 6
    Joined: Jan 07

    Jan 15th, 2007 (1/15/2007 3:10pm)

    I am thinking about building an online tool on my web site
    that would enable one to enter hands they play and then,
    after some statistical crunching, I would provide a rating of
    how lucky the person has been over those hands. Would
    anyone be interested in using such a tool?

    The idea is that for ANY hand one plays where it is opened
    up on the river, the board, the player's cards, and all the
    seen opponents cards are entered. The BB, pre-flop, flop,
    turn and river bets must be entered. My program will then
    produce all the percentages of winning at each stage, etc.,
    and aggregately over all the hands entered compute a luck
    factor. It will be on a scale of 0 to 100, where 50 means
    all is fair in love and war, 60 means one is getting luckier
    than average, and 30 (which would be my score and is my
    motivation here!) would mean one is getting very unlucky.

    So before I begin building, I want to know if this tool would
    be used by anyone. Let me know.

    David
  2. mindwise mindwise is offline

    Chatham, NJ
    United States

    Posts: 1,650
    Joined: Apr 05

    Jan 15th, 2007 (1/15/2007 3:30pm) in reply to BetOdd

    We did launch a Luck Statistic this summer called PUFF (TM), Preflop Unadjusted Fortune Factor. It's "unadjusted" because we don't yet take into account position, stack size, number of players at the table etc. We hope to have "PAFF" (Preflop Adjusted Fortune Factor) in the future as well as FUFF, TUFF, RUFF, etc.

    I talk about it here ... although the video is getting a bit out of date:

    http://www.pokerxfactor.com/free_videos.htm

    PUFF seems to be very popular at PokerXFactor. In the end, it doesn't matter that much (if your Aces are cracked, they are cracked) but it does give a good indication if you had good hole cards or not.

    GL!

    mindwise
     
  3. intrepid007 intrepid007 is offline

    Edmonton
    Canada

    Posts: 176
    Joined: Aug 06

    Jan 15th, 2007 (1/15/2007 3:36pm) in reply to BetOdd

    Already in PXF...
  4. BetOdd BetOdd is offline

    Posts: 6
    Joined: Jan 07

    Jan 15th, 2007 (1/15/2007 3:53pm) in reply to mindwise

    I'll check that out. What I'm talking about is just purely a measure
    of if your 85% to win is holding up 85% of the time or not (in the
    aggregate over many hands). I imagine having at least 4 luck factor
    measures:

    * pre-flop all-in - this is just an easy coin flip type of computation
    * post-flop bet all-in - there are now only 2 cards left so the stats
    obviously change wildly and one can "know" where they stand
    and bet accordingly
    * turn bet all-in - same deal
    * river bet (all-in or not)

    And then there would be some combination of all these luck measures
    to arrive at a total luck quotient.

    As an example, 6 of the last 7 tourneys I went out getting all-in either
    after the flop or turn. In every case, I had a set or top 2, and in those
    6 cases, in 5 I lost to runner-runner straights and in 1 I lost to an inside
    str with flush draw (12 outs). In those 7 particular hands, I was on
    average going to win 84% of the time; in fact, I won 0%. Factoring in
    other hands from the tourney though where my hands held up, I had
    some luck myself (or not luck, just the absense of bad luck) which
    mitigates those 6 final hands.

    Of course, in the end, it doesn't matter how you win or lose, just that
    you do. But having a luck quotient can make one see more clearly
    if in fact they are running or hot or cold, if the "feeling" is real or is
    just imagined.

    I considered having to enter buy-in, table size, tourney size, position, etc.,
    but then I realized that for what I'm after, those things are not totally
    relevant. If a fish calls with A3 off when you have KK at a $5 tourney or
    at a $100 tourney doesn't matter - that is, the $$$ don't matter - because
    the A3 vs. KK matchup odds are the same no matter any other variables
    once the players have committed to the hand.

    David
    Thread Starter
  5. notashark notashark is offline

    Phuket
    Thailand

    Posts: 1,188
    Joined: Sep 06

    Jan 15th, 2007 (1/15/2007 3:57pm) in reply to intrepid007

    my friend was telling me he was getting a really bad run of cards so i put his hands on pxf, and thru 4 mtts he never had a better then 3, yes 3 luck factor. (avg 50, 100 best possible
     1
  6. BillMueller BillMueller is offline OT President

    Farmland, IN
    United States

    Posts: 16,387
    Joined: May 06

    Jan 15th, 2007 (1/15/2007 4:08pm) in reply to notashark

    your friend also said that you flopped 100 sets in a row with 55 or lower.....get real.
  7. BetOdd BetOdd is offline

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    Joined: Jan 07

    Jan 15th, 2007 (1/15/2007 4:27pm) in reply to intrepid007

    I just watched the PXF video. That's a cool product. So I understand
    PUFF now, and while that is interesting, it's not what I'm after uncovering.
    It's fun to see that you have a PUFF of say 52, but it says nothing about
    the how lucky your cards were in relation to your opponents in hands when
    the cards are revealed after the river. That's what I'm after. Examples)
    You have KK and your opponent JJ and get it all in pre-flop. You have
    JQs and the board is 9TK and... well depends on what your opponent has.
    In other words, what I'm talking about is how often your 75% holds up -
    is it 75% of the time? How often you win at 35%? Is it 35% of the time?
    You may be under on one but over on the other - in the aggregate, are
    you lucky or unlucky? That's what I'm thinking about.

    David
    Thread Starter
  8. advis0r advis0r is offline

    London
    United Kingdom

    Posts: 8
    Joined: Jul 06

    Jan 15th, 2007 (1/15/2007 5:42pm) in reply to BetOdd

    i'd use it! ;)
  9. Heads Up Abe Heads Up Abe is offline

    Gilbert, AZ
    United States

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    Joined: Oct 05

    Jan 15th, 2007 (1/15/2007 6:14pm) in reply to advis0r

    Good Luck with that.
  10. N 82 50 24 N 82 50 24 is offline herp derp derp

    Philadelphia, PA
    United States

    Posts: 8,601
    Joined: Jun 05

    Jan 15th, 2007 (1/15/2007 6:19pm) in reply to Heads Up Abe

    I am building something similar to resolve a prop bet. I'm looking forward to seeing how it turns out.
     
  11. jhill3535 jhill3535 is offline

    Russellville, AR
    United States

    Posts: 2,163
    Joined: Feb 06

    Jan 15th, 2007 (1/15/2007 6:44pm) in reply to BetOdd

    I like it. It is basically a measure of how good or bad you are running. What would be really hard to take into account are the turn or river cards that you know beat you so you fold, because you don't get to confirm their cards at showdown in the HH.

    I know I run bad, I would like to see how bad I really do run in MTT.
     
  12. BetOdd BetOdd is offline

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    Joined: Jan 07

    Jan 15th, 2007 (1/15/2007 9:44pm) in reply to advis0r

    For those that care...

    I was working on the math today at lunch. I'm a statistician.
    The basic approach is this: almost every hand that I care about
    I'm 80% to 85% to win post-flop. Since every deal is an independent
    event, what we have is a binomial distribution with p=0.80.
    In 10 hands, one can easily compute the expected number of wins,
    the variance, the standard deviation, etc.

    As the number of IID (identical independent) binomial trials goes
    to infinity, one has a normal distribution.

    So I may base part of my model on the binomial/normal distribution.
    I came up with some ideas today in terms of "over/under" thinking
    which would capture the idea of running hot and running cold, and I
    shaped those ideas around a normal curve.

    So now- time to build the tool! I'll post it here soon.

    David
    Thread Starter
  13. mindwise mindwise is offline

    Chatham, NJ
    United States

    Posts: 1,650
    Joined: Apr 05

    Jan 15th, 2007 (1/15/2007 10:07pm) in reply to BetOdd

    Yes but can you help us from getting our aces cracked?
     
  14. nicepair111 nicepair111 is offline

    United States

    Posts: 153
    Joined: Oct 05

    Jan 15th, 2007 (1/15/2007 10:23pm) in reply to BetOdd

    I tried to do something similar once to test my luck. I only wanted to see if I won my share of all in preflop hands. I tried to make a program that would record all in preflops between 2 players and weigh my results versus what the odds would dictate. I wanted to prove to myself that I was in no way as unlucky as it seemed. In the end, it proved to difficult for me to do.

    I think your tool would be very usefull because more than likely most people that think they are unlucky would see that in reality, their luck is average.
  15. BetOdd BetOdd is offline

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    Joined: Jan 07

    Jan 16th, 2007 (1/16/2007 12:00am) in reply to mindwise

    Sorry, bro, no can do! But if I could... I'd save mine from
    having been cracked by the dorkus #2 chip stack who, while
    I was the #1 stack, called my raise-reraise-reraise all-in
    bet with AA with TT! And of course, promptly spiked a T.

    Anyhow, I'm starting the tool now. Basically, you can just
    enter coin flips (pre-flop all-in) if you like. But I will create
    a special link to examine just those. The most painful
    for me (and for everyone of course) is when you are in
    complete control of the hand and know for a fact that you
    are winning (I mean, you know!) and then you get outdrawn
    on the river. (Or, you do the outdrawing, because it does
    happen once in a blue moon.) Those are the sort of things
    I'd like to keep track of and see if I'm really running cold,
    average, hot or what.
    Thread Starter
  16. Green Plastic Green Plastic is offline

    Chicago, IL
    United States

    Posts: 1,182
    Joined: Feb 05

    Jan 16th, 2007 (1/16/2007 1:19am) in reply to nicepair111

    yo nat i'm running so hot its sick.

    tc
  17. BetOdd BetOdd is offline

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    Joined: Jan 07

    Jan 17th, 2007 (1/17/2007 3:38pm) in reply to N 82 50 24

    Well, here it is, in beta.

    http://www.pricebasis.com/cgi-bin/poker-luck.cgi

    The nuts and bolts are in place, but it's not perfect yet.
    I will be adding all sorts of filters - how lucky one is playing
    pocket pairs, premium hands, suited connectors, etc.
    I will add new sites - just email me if your poker site isn't
    listed (use "Other" for now). You can't edit or delete hands
    you've entered yet- coming in the future- so make sure you
    type it in right to begin with. I will be adding an "all-in"
    checkbox for data in the future which will tie in to what
    I am calling the "pain meter" - how lucky are you when
    all the marbles are on the line?

    Anyhow, feel free to try it out. All comments are welcome.

    David
    Thread Starter
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