I'm going to use Annette as an example a little later on, but just to preface this and I think we all know that even though luck is a factor in both online and live tourneys, it becomes much much more a factor online because of the blind structures.

Online there is usually 20-25xbb chip leader at final table, hence alot of allin preflop and very very little postflop play late in tourneys. Luck is a big factor here because there are plenty of 55/45's 60/40's, and 40/60's you have to weed through to WIN these tourneys as people are gambling it up with the increasing blinds.

Back in 2005 I had won two majors on party poker (I used to be a frequent leaderboard person) and was probably a TAG player. I played solely as a hobby and considered myself slightly above average. I was no Below or (insert ranked player here) trying to steal and resteal. I was patient to a virtue and it literally paid off.

However, I would find myself on the sideline in most tourneys being knocked out with the best of it time and time again. I started keeping track of my flips/60-40's and they were off the charts BAD. The flips were roughly 37% and the 60-40's were worse (either way) and this was after 500 documented allin preflop hands.

I'd come to realize that even though I won a bunch of $$ that I not very lucky in these situations.

Now back to topic....

If you have luck OR skill IMHO your variance will be all over the place with HUGE upswings and downswings. You may be lucky early in one tourn where your kk beats aa and you win that tourney or you could have incredible skill (insert ranked player here) that gets people to FOLD hands that are better than yours late in tourn.

But....

To be insanely successful, you have to have both. No question. Take Annette for example...someone posted her tourney finishes a few days or so ago. They are off the charts. Obviously she has major skills. But if you look closer, she is insanely lucky also. Consider this....She plays in all of the same tourneys as the other online pros. So they all know her play as well as the other "donks" in the tourn now that she is a household name.

Now we all know that she plays a TON of tourneys, so how does she close them out efficiently and routinely? Luck plays a major factor..it has to. Her flips and 60/40 40/60's have to be off the charts and I mean off the charts. It would be a major advantage for her if the other players DIDNT KNOW who she was. But yet they all do and she still wins with increasing regularity.

Major props Annette and to the other ranked players here who have that combo. just some food for thought.

i don't she or any other pros are any luckier than the rest of us they jut play better. i watch annette play all the time and see her get sucked out on and lose these 60 - 40's all the time. the difference is the pros are better at accumulating chips than the rest of us therefore they survive the inevitable suck outs and continue to play.

haha lol @ annette not getting luckier. nh sir. nice assumption.

I think its absolutely wrong to say any one person is not luckier/unluckier than any other. I had a run of 37% losing flips..easily someone could have 63% WINNING flips given the variation.

I respect and admire MOST of the ranked players, however, when Annette is winning these tourneys I highly doubt that she raises preflop and everyone folds. She also most certainly doesnt get dealt aa every hand either. She's also up against highly ranked players night in and night out who are NOT interested in moving up places and play for the win also.

Is she really that much more skilled than everyone else( the other top online players)??

In these tourneys skill takes you only so far. As it gets late (lets say final 30 or so depending upon the # of entries) it becomes an allin fest. Also factor in that she's aggressive and alot of the time her $$ is in with the worst of it.

Obvoiusly you need both luck and skill to win a tourn (tourneys), but IMHO no matter how good/great you are there are some players at a very high level that are much more luckier than other players at the same level (and that has translated into many many top finishes for Annette).

Again JMHO.

"It would be a major advantage for her if the other players DIDNT KNOW who she was."

I believe the opposite is true. I admit to playing much worse and sometimes donating all my chips to a ranked player because i am aware they are capable of all sorts of plays. I think her reputation shes built works out very good for her. I think most people play worse against ranked players and some people play worse against her becuase shes a girl.

there have been many ranked players here who have posted that they would like their screen name changed because they would rather be anonymous.

I believe party was the only one that allowed you to (every 6 months). Im not sure about the other sites.

It's incredibly easy to say one person is luckier than another, over a short time span. 3 mos., 6 mos., it's very easy to run better than you should, or better than another player. There will be hands where the luck is bad, but they'll be countered by all those hands that go the other way. Track these players over a year, or several, and you'll see the true nature of their game. Anything less than that is not a large enough sample.

the point im making is that annette goes up against players like below every day, day in and day out. I dont recognize anyone at below's table (in the link u gave).

lets put it this way..the way she's running (luckwise and otherwise)..

how many times do you think she would win a final table if up against the other top 9 players?