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M of 18 w 99 facing UTG+1 raise

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  1. nowapowa nowapowa is offline

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    Sep 22nd, 2007 (9/22/2007 4:16pm)

    pokerstars Game #12208111307: Tournament #61172750, $50+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2007/09/22 - 16:07:01 (ET)
    Table '61172750 125' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
    Seat 1: chaxxk (8250 in chips)
    Seat 2: stiCKypiFF14 (1657 in chips)
    Seat 3: maruz (12702 in chips)
    Seat 4: Markusa1 (4490 in chips)
    Seat 5: dirmic88 (6296 in chips)
    Seat 6: kbnhus (7675 in chips)
    Seat 7: Petor (4455 in chips)
    <span>Seat 8: ambient111 (8410 in chips) </span>
    <span>Seat 9: nowapowa (4052 in chips) </span>
    dirmic88: posts small blind 75
    kbnhus: posts big blind 150
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to nowapowa [9h 9s]
    Petor: folds
    ambient111: raises 300 to 450
    nowapowa:

    I felt that I was right on the margin of calling to set mine here. This player had previously limped shoved TT so I thought this raise was more likely to be AK/Q.

    What's your move here and why?
  2. YourTimeIsUp YourTimeIsUp is offline

    Orange, CT
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    Sep 22nd, 2007 (9/22/2007 4:20pm) in reply to nowapowa

    You aren't set mining if you think his range is weighted to AK/AQ.
    1
  3. warden warden is offline

    Tucson, AZ
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    Sep 22nd, 2007 (9/22/2007 4:28pm) in reply to nowapowa

    i probably fold
     2
  4. Too Sik Too Sik is offline

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    Sep 22nd, 2007 (9/22/2007 4:28pm) in reply to nowapowa

    I wish i was able to tell you a guys only two hands in his range with his opening raise based on the one previous hand i saw him play.
  5. warden warden is offline

    Tucson, AZ
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    Sep 22nd, 2007 (9/22/2007 4:29pm) in reply to Too Sik

    I wish I were a dick who didn't offer any advice but rather just attacked the OP for asking a question
     2
  6. texduke texduke is offline

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    Sep 22nd, 2007 (9/22/2007 4:30pm) in reply to nowapowa

    Fold. M of 18 Is not good position for medium pocket pairs to try and catch a set.

    Here’s your likely scenarios: He has AK, AQ, as you said…and any A, K, Q on the flop (56% chance) plus a continuation bet scares you out of the pot.

    He has JJ+ and you are WAY behind.

    Best case: You flop one of your 9’s (a 1 in like 7.5 chance), manage to get him all in with it (no guaruntee…especially if he misses with AK)…your net win becomes like 8x what you paid to see the flop…implied odds just aren’t there.

    Harrington has a good section in one of his books about how this yellow zone is perhaps he worst place for pocket pairs.

    Also, even if you call, who is to say that someone doesn’t wake up with KK, AA, AK in late position and move all-in…thus you never even see the flop and thus have no chance to catch.
     
  7. nowapowa nowapowa is offline

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    Sep 22nd, 2007 (9/22/2007 4:36pm) in reply to YourTimeIsUp

    Which is why I raised and called a shove. He had KK. I play bad lol.
    Thread Starter
  8. wywrot wywrot is offline

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    Sep 22nd, 2007 (9/22/2007 4:38pm) in reply to texduke

    fold
    535 3
  9. LeFlyingRat LeFlyingRat is offline

    Repentigny
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    Sep 22nd, 2007 (9/22/2007 4:41pm) in reply to warden

    I wish dpottz was at my starting table of a rebuy PLO tournament more often.
  10. warden warden is offline

    Tucson, AZ
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    Sep 22nd, 2007 (9/22/2007 4:42pm) in reply to LeFlyingRat

    I wish I could ban myself from playing that ever.
     2
  11. pvenditto88 pvenditto88 is offline

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    Sep 22nd, 2007 (9/22/2007 4:44pm) in reply to wywrot

    people over play 9's.... most of the time you're a flip at best. call and trap with a set.
  12. warden warden is offline

    Tucson, AZ
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    Sep 22nd, 2007 (9/22/2007 4:47pm) in reply to pvenditto88

    you dont have the odds to call and flop a set, and you give up to a c-bet on most flops (not to mention the times that a player behind you raises/shoves and you have to fold)
     2
  13. Sokpuppet7 Sokpuppet7 is offline

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    Sep 22nd, 2007 (9/22/2007 4:51pm) in reply to warden

    I think I like a fold better than anything, but if you're going to play it, I would probably just shove. There's really not enough implied odds to try to mine a set here.
  14. nowapowa nowapowa is offline

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    Sep 22nd, 2007 (9/22/2007 5:16pm) in reply to Too Sik

    I obviously know his range his wider than AK/Q, I just thought it was <span>more</span> likely to be those hands considering the way he played TT.
    Thread Starter
  15. Jennifear Jennifear is offline

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    Sep 22nd, 2007 (9/22/2007 6:00pm) in reply to nowapowa

    This is a fold. Your opponent has a tight range and there are too many players left to act.

    Calling to set mine is unprofitable, because your combined odds of:

    - not being reraised out
    - flopping a set
    - getting all the money in
    - winning the hand anyway

    are less than the odds you are getting.
  16. nowapowa nowapowa is offline

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    Sep 22nd, 2007 (9/22/2007 6:26pm) in reply to Jennifear

    thanks for the replies, I have too much trouble folding 99 I guess.
    Thread Starter
  17. Sokpuppet7 Sokpuppet7 is offline

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    Sep 22nd, 2007 (9/22/2007 6:29pm) in reply to nowapowa

    99 might actually be my cutoff actually... I may shove TT there, but fold 99... But then again, who knows, I may only be shoving JJ+ and AK
  18. 2BlackNines 2BlackNines is offline

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    Sep 22nd, 2007 (9/22/2007 6:50pm) in reply to Sokpuppet7

    9s9c = shove 9s9h = fold
  19. C4LL4W4Y C4LL4W4Y is offline

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    Sep 22nd, 2007 (9/22/2007 6:52pm) in reply to 2BlackNines

    LOL
  20. hrk hrk is offline

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    Sep 23rd, 2007 (9/23/2007 1:00am) in reply to Jennifear

    OK Jennifear, if that is true, how many chips does he need to call here?
  21. warden warden is offline

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    Sep 23rd, 2007 (9/23/2007 1:21am) in reply to hrk

    i'm not jennifear but i'd say around 6500, which gives you about 15:1 for your implied odds
     2
  22. Bigchip79 Bigchip79 is offline

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    Sep 23rd, 2007 (9/23/2007 1:54am) in reply to nowapowa

    w0w u guys are good..l0l i would reraise or call LOL wow i didnt know i played this bad
  23. UFmark UFmark is offline

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    Sep 23rd, 2007 (9/23/2007 1:56am) in reply to nowapowa

    i smooth call and see a flop here in position
  24. degenerate21 degenerate21 is offline

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    Sep 23rd, 2007 (9/23/2007 2:00am) in reply to UFmark

    and then one of the 4 people behind you smooth it too and you are no longer in position

    FOLD because they said so
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