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Making the right call on the bubble in a Sitngo??

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  1. mostud09 mostud09 is offline

    Fort Walton Beach, FL
    United States

    Posts: 5
    Joined: May 07

    May 30th, 2008 (5/30/2008 11:18am)

    This guy had been playing way loose and I knew I was way ahead of his range so I called. He gets lucky and wins and I'm left with about 3bb and bubble the next hand.

    pokerstars Game #17783998122: Tournament #90179327, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2008/05/29 - 21:07:23 (ET)
    Table '90179327 1' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
    Seat 3: MOstud09 (4333 in chips)
    Seat 4: jpenn13 (2957 in chips)
    Seat 6: tharnrah (2829 in chips)
    Seat 7: Big_Poppa_66 (3381 in chips)
    MOstud09: posts the ante 25
    jpenn13: posts the ante 25
    tharnrah: posts the ante 25
    Big_Poppa_66: posts the ante 25
    MOstud09: posts small blind 200
    jpenn13: posts big blind 400
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to MOstud09 [Qs Ad]
    tharnrah: raises 2404 to 2804 and is all-in
    Big_Poppa_66: folds
    MOstud09: raises 1504 to 4308 and is all-in
    jpenn13: folds
    Uncalled bet (1504) returned to MOstud09
    *** FLOP *** [Ts Kc 2d]
    tharnrah said, "uh"
    *** TURN *** [Ts Kc 2d] [8c]
    *** RIVER *** [Ts Kc 2d 8c] [5d]
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    MOstud09: shows [Qs Ad] (high card Ace)
    tharnrah: shows [Tc As] (a pair of Tens)
    tharnrah said, "hehe"
    MOstud09 said, "lol\"
    tharnrah collected 6108 from pot
    MOstud09 said, "cant win today"
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 6108 | Rake 0
    Board [Ts Kc 2d 8c 5d]
    Seat 3: MOstud09 (small blind) showed [Qs Ad] and lost with high card Ace
    Seat 4: jpenn13 (big blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 6: tharnrah showed [Tc As] and won (6108) with a pair of Tens
    Seat 7: Big_Poppa_66 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

    --I know it was the right call technically, but was it the right call strategically? AQ is 50 50 to any pair and not too far ahead of 2 lowers. If I knew he had AT here I would call any day but I didn't know. So my question is, should I have folded here? (Taking into account stack sizes and bubble situation)

    Thanks
    -Bryan
  2. bef99hwk bef99hwk is offline

    Manhattan, KS
    United States

    Posts: 7,332
    Joined: Apr 07

    May 30th, 2008 (5/30/2008 11:24am) in reply to mostud09

    Never fold this...he's shoving a lot that ur a coinflip or dominating or at least ahead 60/40. Cant' be afraid to bubble in a sng. Load up another. Shit pisses me off too but yeah, it's poker and starting to learn 30% is nothing online.
  3. sotti sotti is offline

    Portland, OR
    United States

    Posts: 1,342
    Joined: Sep 06

    May 30th, 2008 (5/30/2008 12:16pm) in reply to mostud09

    Let's ICM it.

    before you post antes and blinds you are the equity leader at $26.26, followed by big poppa at $22.74 and then the other are down in the $20.XX range.

    So you're winning but deffinetly don't have dominating equity by any means.

    If you fold your AQ in this spot your equity drops to $25.77 and thranah comes up to $23.17, big poppa is $22.5 and jpenn drops to $18.49

    So your baseline equity is $25.77 comparing that to when you call you can determine how often you need to win to break even.

    When you call and win: $36.07
    When you call and lose: $13.44

    so our algerbra is
    25.77 = x36.07 + (1-x)13.44
    25.77 = 36.07x -13.44x + 13.44
    12.33 = 22.63x
    x = 54%
    So it is a bit of a borderline call depending on how you range your opponent range. This is about the range that is break even against AQ in this spot 44+,A6s+,K9s+,QJs,A9o+,KJo+ (AQ 54%, vs 46% for the range). The wider you think he is than that the better your call, If you think he's any tighter than that snap fold.

    Also just to show you how thin calling with AQ can be if you flip the stack sizes between you and tharnah around and you have the short stack and he has the big stack the ICM looks like this.

    Fold (to 2604 chips): 19.41
    call and win: 31.9
    call and lose: 0
    19.41 = 31.9x
    x = 60%

    So his range has to be about 55+,A2s+,K5s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A7o+,K9o+,Q9o+,JT o for calling with AQ to be break even, if he has you covered. So unless you think he is shoveing with 89s in this spot you'd probably be better folding than calling.
  4. sotti sotti is offline

    Portland, OR
    United States

    Posts: 1,342
    Joined: Sep 06

    May 30th, 2008 (5/30/2008 12:21pm) in reply to mostud09

    Also if you look at it from an equilibrim stand point (where even does perfect shove fold, nobody gains equity in the long run with the ranges).

    http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sn...amp;s8=&s9=

    he should be pushing very wide and you should be calling with AQ, but not if you flip the stack sizes
    http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sn...amp;s8=&s9=
  5. mostud09 mostud09 is offline

    Fort Walton Beach, FL
    United States

    Posts: 5
    Joined: May 07

    May 30th, 2008 (5/30/2008 9:05pm) in reply to sotti

    Awesome, thanks for the input guys.
    This really made me stop and think, I think i would Have been better off folding this one, much rather shove than call anyways :)
    Thread Starter
  6. moman1965 moman1965 is offline

    Katy, TX
    United States

    Posts: 2,765
    Joined: Oct 06

    May 30th, 2008 (5/30/2008 9:25pm) in reply to mostud09

    A lot of math there!! But I go with the old fashioned players like Doyle and the likes who always say that you need a better hand to call than to shove. I hate calling off my stack even if I think I am ahead. I was taught the 15% rule. Only call a shove if it is less than 15% of your stack unless you hold JJ+. Since you have an unmade hand, you are flipping anyways. Pick a spot to be the agressor and not the caller.
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