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Middle Pair against over-bet

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  1. TheMayor TheMayor is offline

    Boston, MA
    United States

    Posts: 4,699
    Joined: Jul 06

    Nov 27th, 2006 (11/27/2006 8:47am)

    Don't have the HH but here's the situation:

    It's a 9 handed turbo SNG, and you have doubled up early to 3000. The blinds are still small, (20/40) and the other 7 players at the table are all between 1400-1600.

    You're dealt 9h9s in the cutoff.
    1 limper in early/middle position.
    You raise to 4x bb. Both blinds fold. Limper calls. He has 1300 behind after putting in the 160 pre flop.

    Flop: 2c 6c Jd

    Villain pushes allin first to act, for 1300 into a 350 pot.

    Easy fold? Whats his range? Are you ever calling against an unknown opponent?
  2. grapsfan grapsfan is offline Head Curmudgeon

    Rosemount, MN
    United States

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    Nov 27th, 2006 (11/27/2006 9:11am) in reply to TheMayor

    Most likely he's got a flush draw with one or two overs to your 99, which makes it a coin flip. I can't see him making that overbet with a J or anything else that beats you, but you can't discount it.

    All in all, there's no reason for you to gamble here. You've gotten the huge benefit of doubling up early in a turbo SNG. Don't give that edge away. Not necessarily easy fold, but I think it's a good one.
     
  3. stoner311 stoner311 is offline

    Burbank, CA
    United States

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    Nov 27th, 2006 (11/27/2006 9:15am) in reply to grapsfan

    The player that moved all in is sitting on pocket 2's or 6's and has flopped a set. I've seen this happen a million times on sng's. So it's an easy solid fold.
  4. TheMayor TheMayor is offline

    Boston, MA
    United States

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    Nov 27th, 2006 (11/27/2006 9:38am) in reply to stoner311

    Why push in first with a set? I'm c-betting this type of flop against 1 opponent 99% of the time. A hand that strong should be check raising on this flop.
    Thread Starter
  5. stoner311 stoner311 is offline

    Burbank, CA
    United States

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    Nov 27th, 2006 (11/27/2006 10:25am) in reply to TheMayor

    I think you are giving the opponent too much credit in this situation. I am assuming that the buy in for this SNG was $50 or less. Most opponents in the low buy in SNG's are not as advanced as you are. I am saying what I've seen in this situation 70% of the time is someone limping in from early middle position with 22 or 66. They hit their set and push all in because the flop shows two cards of the same suit and they don't want to be drawn out on OR they are hoping that their opponent is holding AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AJ etc. and will call them. I don't think anyone would move all in on a flush draw or with AK or two overcards this early in an SNG. Regardless of what you or I think the villain's holdings are I think we can both agree with GRAPSFAN that the proper move here would be to fold.
  6. kissamr98 kissamr98 is offline

    Indianapolis, IN
    United States

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    Nov 27th, 2006 (11/27/2006 10:30am) in reply to TheMayor

    I like the tight angle early. Go ahead and let him have this. You on't need this pot. Why risk that many chips when you could be dominated by any J.

    With 7 people left, lay it down and and try to get your money in when you have more of a chance of having the best hand. Easy fold for me.

    I would put him on either flush draw, Poorly played K,J-10,J or AJ, and if he has air, its not worth it for the gain.

    What is the buy in?

    Thanks for all the insite into my hands in the past 7-8 months. This site and players like you have helped me advance my game 10 fold.

    gl mrk
  7. jay_shark jay_shark is offline

    NY
    United States

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    Nov 27th, 2006 (11/27/2006 11:09am) in reply to TheMayor

    Ok so you're getting 1300 +350 :1300 on your call which equates to 1.26:1 .

    So you need a 44 % chance of winning for the call to be profitable in terms of Cev . If you put him on a flush draw and two overs , then you have the right odds in terms of Cev and it would be fairly close in terms of $Ev because you already have some money invested . The reason you may fold is because his range is not only two overs and a flush draw . Occasionally , you'll be wrong in your assumption and he'll have something like ace jack or whatever .
  8. holmes304 holmes304 is offline

    Long Beach, CA
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    Nov 27th, 2006 (11/27/2006 11:26am) in reply to TheMayor

    fold.

    approx. 22% of the chips on the table... wait for that better spot.
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