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Mini ftops event29 weird spot

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  1. BIGTRIX6 BIGTRIX6 is offline

    London
    United Kingdom

    Posts: 68
    Joined: Jan 09

    Mar 15th, 2011 (3/15/2011 11:21pm)

    SB is new to table, so no stats, bb is 17/11 over 36 hands. i size my bet pre to induce a shove but think twice once bb calls..
    Should i just be getting it in here? I guess the answer is yes but vs 2 players i wasnt 100% sure. (fwiw w/ TT+ or AQs i snap)

    Full Tilt Poker Game #29055475530: MiniFTOPS Event #29 (209627016), Table 230 - 200/400 Ante 50 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:08:16 UTC - 2011/03/15 [18:08:16 ET - 2011/03/15]
    Seat 1: SerhiyDz (2,270)
    Seat 2: ujjhu (3,075)
    Seat 3: MaximusMcGee (5,585)
    Seat 4: BIGTRIX6 (7,620)
    Seat 5: AceJosh (4,720)
    Seat 6: MRtaro30 (8,480)
    Seat 7: douggy93 (4,645)
    Seat 8: AquaTap (3,295)
    Seat 9: macica (2,775)
    SerhiyDz antes 50
    ujjhu antes 50
    MaximusMcGee antes 50
    BIGTRIX6 antes 50
    AceJosh antes 50
    MRtaro30 antes 50
    douggy93 antes 50
    AquaTap antes 50
    macica antes 50
    douggy93 posts the small blind of 200
    AquaTap posts the big blind of 400
    The button is in seat #6
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to BIGTRIX6 [Jd As]
    macica folds
    SerhiyDz folds
    ujjhu folds
    MaximusMcGee folds
    BIGTRIX6 raises to 1,050
    AceJosh folds
    MRtaro30 folds
    douggy93 raises to 4,595, and is all in
    AquaTap calls 2,845, and is all in
    BIGTRIX6...
  2. kelmann333 kelmann333 is offline

    Posts: 331
    Joined: Mar 10

    Mar 15th, 2011 (3/15/2011 11:37pm) in reply to BIGTRIX6

    THIS IS A FOLD. AJ is not good to call two shoves.
  3. BIGTRIX6 BIGTRIX6 is offline

    London
    United Kingdom

    Posts: 68
    Joined: Jan 09

    Mar 15th, 2011 (3/15/2011 11:50pm) in reply to kelmann333

    thats what i thought and i did fold but the BB turned up w/ KJo and the sb had 88. Flop J high obv, and made me think if i should have called due to the bb stack size...
    Thread Starter
  4. kelmann333 kelmann333 is offline

    Posts: 331
    Joined: Mar 10

    Mar 16th, 2011 (3/16/2011 12:23am) in reply to BIGTRIX6

    can't be result oriented.
  5. tyson219 tyson219 is offline Moderator

    New York, NY
    United States

    Posts: 2,121
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    Mar 16th, 2011 (3/16/2011 4:35pm) in reply to kelmann333

    Don't post results so soon, wait for more feedback. It's 3595 to call and there's 9440 in the pot. You only need 27.5% equity to make the call.

    I'm at work and can't pokerstove it now, but I think it's pretty close.
     969 
  6. CookieStache CookieStache is offline

    Wayne, MI
    United States

    Posts: 68
    Joined: Mar 11

    Mar 16th, 2011 (3/16/2011 4:51pm) in reply to tyson219

    i fold
  7. mdschluter mdschluter is offline

    United States

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    Joined: Dec 10

    Mar 16th, 2011 (3/16/2011 9:15pm) in reply to CookieStache

    open shove or fold..either play is fine.
  8. mcandrews3rd mcandrews3rd is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 1,173
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    Mar 17th, 2011 (3/17/2011 4:07am) in reply to mdschluter

    like the raise pre as opposed to shoving

    as played i think you have to fold, unless you know bb is retarded an then call
    183 1
  9. okse54 okse54 is offline

    New York, NY
    United States

    Posts: 3,692
    Joined: Nov 07

    Mar 17th, 2011 (3/17/2011 2:27pm) in reply to mcandrews3rd

    ill run the EV calculation for you, ill start with these assumptions as ranges

    SB - 55+, A9+, KJs+, KQ

    BB - 88+ AQ+

    so heres how it goes

    450 in the pot from antes

    our 1050 in the pot already

    2845 from the SB

    2845 from the BB

    pot total = 7190

    we have to call 1795 to win 7190. the equity needed is 19.97%

    vs those ranges we get

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 21.919% 20.28% 01.64% 1810998169 146808726.67 { AsJd }
    Hand 1: 30.668% 28.47% 02.20% 2542970152 196288142.17 { 55+, A9s+, KJs+, A9o+, KQo }
    Hand 2: 47.412% 45.93% 01.48% 4102172878 132594996.17 { 88+, AQs+, AQo+ }

    we actually have 21.9% equity

    however these multi way pots with side pots are tricky. thats just the first step. so the total pot is 7190 + our 1795. our 1795 represents 19.9% of the pot, our equity is 21.9% of the pot.

    .219 * the total pot will give us our equity afterwards

    .219 * 8985 = 1976.7

    so for the main pot we start with 1795 and on avg will walk away with 1976, we gain 172.7 chips on avg in the main pot.

    we actually have to now run the side pot and see if we on avg lose more than 172.7 chips in the side pot which would counter balance the gain we have in the main pot

    we are risking 1750 to win 1750 in the side pot. the total pot is 3500.

    our actual equity is

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 46.266% 41.61% 04.66% 92616126 10372154.00 { AsJd }
    Hand 1: 53.734% 49.07% 04.66% 109239086 10372154.00 { 55+, A9s+, KJs+, A9o+, KQo }

    46.26% of the side pot

    3500 * 46.26 = 1619

    1619 - 1750 = -130.9

    so vs the ranges i posted we would gain on avg 172.7 chips in the main pot and lose 130.9 in the side pot

    our total change is + 41 chips

    so this actually would be a call assuming those ranges.

    if you disagree with the ranging it might be a fold. this should at least be an indicator of where we stand
     
  10. tyson219 tyson219 is offline Moderator

    New York, NY
    United States

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    Mar 17th, 2011 (3/17/2011 3:59pm) in reply to okse54

    Nice work okse. I wanted to do it last night, but didn't get the chance.

    I was thinking the same exact range for the BB yesterday. The SB range seems about right, although I wouldn't be surprised if he also reshoved weaker aces as well. As I said yesterday, it's really close either way and even if you tweak the ranges, it's never going to be a clear call or clear fold.
     969 
  11. kelmann333 kelmann333 is offline

    Posts: 331
    Joined: Mar 10

    Mar 17th, 2011 (3/17/2011 4:07pm) in reply to okse54

     
    Originally Posted by okse54 View Post

    ill run the EV calculation for you, ill start with these assumptions as ranges

    SB - 55+, A9+, KJs+, KQ

    BB - 88+ AQ+

    so heres how it goes

    450 in the pot from antes

    our 1050 in the pot already

    2845 from the SB

    2845 from the BB

    pot total = 7190

    we have to call 1795 to win 7190. the equity needed is 19.97%

    vs those ranges we get

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 21.919% 20.28% 01.64% 1810998169 146808726.67 { AsJd }
    Hand 1: 30.668% 28.47% 02.20% 2542970152 196288142.17 { 55+, A9s+, KJs+, A9o+, KQo }
    Hand 2: 47.412% 45.93% 01.48% 4102172878 132594996.17 { 88+, AQs+, AQo+ }

    we actually have 21.9% equity

    however these multi way pots with side pots are tricky. thats just the first step. so the total pot is 7190 + our 1795. our 1795 represents 19.9% of the pot, our equity is 21.9% of the pot.

    .219 * the total pot will give us our equity afterwards

    .219 * 8985 = 1976.7

    so for the main pot we start with 1795 and on avg will walk away with 1976, we gain 172.7 chips on avg in the main pot.

    we actually have to now run the side pot and see if we on avg lose more than 172.7 chips in the side pot which would counter balance the gain we have in the main pot

    we are risking 1750 to win 1750 in the side pot. the total pot is 3500.

    our actual equity is

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 46.266% 41.61% 04.66% 92616126 10372154.00 { AsJd }
    Hand 1: 53.734% 49.07% 04.66% 109239086 10372154.00 { 55+, A9s+, KJs+, A9o+, KQo }

    46.26% of the side pot

    3500 * 46.26 = 1619

    1619 - 1750 = -130.9

    so vs the ranges i posted we would gain on avg 172.7 chips in the main pot and lose 130.9 in the side pot

    our total change is + 41 chips

    so this actually would be a call assuming those ranges.

    if you disagree with the ranging it might be a fold. this should at least be an indicator of where we stand

    WOW! That's alot of calculations that time banks don't allow us. Keep it simple! LOL
  12. grail1974 grail1974 is offline

    Patras
    Greece

    Posts: 13
    Joined: Dec 10

    Mar 17th, 2011 (3/17/2011 5:16pm) in reply to kelmann333

    I like okse's analysis which is quite solid for me. But i want to stress something i try to justify lately as a pure MTT logic. Think that in many situations you have to bypass slightly +EV spots vs maintaining stack and fold equity. In this specific spot we have less that 20bb. We could def shove, but in a later position imo. i'd like a min-raise instead of 2.5x with the intention to folding to anyone but the big blind. The reasoning is that i could maintain my folding equity for a better shove spot and if the big blind spams, there is a bigger possibility to do it light. Thus, i am far ahead of his shoving range. Additionally if i call and loose to the bb, i maintain a 10bb stack which may give me a chance to double up.
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