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I level myself every time I think through this hand.
When I played it I just didn't think the river helped him cause I didn't think he should have a flush in this spot. But, he has check called on every street. I think he will call my c-bet with quite a wide range, but would expect 1 pair hands to fold the turn. So on the river do I check cause I'm scared of the flush or am I betting to extract value from 2 pair hands?
pokerstars Hand #74878015390: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25 USD) - 2012/02/01 22:48:11 WET [2012/02/01 17:48:11 ET]
Table 'Hebei IV' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: funnyhold ($15 in chips)
Seat 2: therealmp ($13.56 in chips)
Seat 4: CapeTownBoy ($22.29 in chips)
Seat 6: bluetramm ($27.60 in chips)
Seat 7: chefrogger78 ($10 in chips)
Seat 8: Bullet gsxr ($12 in chips)
Bullet gsxr: posts small blind $0.10
losants: is sitting out
losants leaves the table
funnyhold: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CapeTownBoy [8c 8d]
therealmp: folds
CapeTownBoy: raises $0.50 to $0.75
bluetramm: folds
chefrogger78: folds
Bullet gsxr: folds
funnyhold: calls $0.50
*** FLOP *** [As 8s Qd]
funnyhold: checks
CapeTownBoy: bets $1
funnyhold: calls $1
*** TURN *** [As 8s Qd] [9d]
funnyhold: checks
CapeTownBoy: bets $2.50
funnyhold: calls $2.50
*** RIVER *** [As 8s Qd 9d] [5d]
funnyhold: checks
CapeTownBoy: ?? -
You definitely need to valuebet river here, villain will show up few times with flush here but more often then not he has hands that will potentially call you; - depending on player type and tendencies.
Edited By: KingKongDonk Feb 3rd, 2012 at 05:51 PM -
I would be assuming its like AJ or worse, so I would bet about $4 and think there is a good chance he has AJ-Ax possibly KQ and might call, 2 pair will call or could raise thinking you have AK or AJ and try to get value. I have little faith he has the flush even if he reraises all-in I would put it more to AQ than the flush.
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You valuebet river because you're less afraid of that flush than the former. He may have it every now and then but I'd put that down to a cooler. I'm not putting him on a diamond flush anyway. If he reraises me i'll just flat unless he has a history of being a dick on the river.
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You should use the REM process. What's his range? What's your equity and how do you maximize value.
By checking the river you are giving up value of worse hands that can call you. Seeing that any 2 pair or maby even TPTK can call here. If he raises he may think he's raising for value with his 2 pair. Just raise/call and if he has a flush so be it. -
just because he ended up with Axdd this one time is no reason to puke over spots like this
Edited By: BelieveIt Feb 6th, 2012 at 06:47 PM -
He did have Axdd. When I looked at the hand history afterwards I can see how it worked out for him. He's called from the BB with a random A then called my c-bet with top pair. On the turn he has a flush draw. Before I bet the river I discounted the flush & with hindsight it sort of makes sense that he can have a flush. I was sure it was some kind of 2 pair. Thing is, if I were in his shoes I would have bet the river
just because he ended up with Axdd this one time is no reason to puke over spots like this
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