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Is this move +EV?

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  1. GopherFan28 GopherFan28 is offline

    Saint Paul, MN
    United States

    Posts: 32
    Joined: Feb 06

    Aug 10th, 2006 (8/10/2006 1:23am)

    This is part bad beat, part hand advice. When we started heads-up in this SnG my opponent was around 11800 in chips to my 1700. He was dominating, however to me it was obvious once we got down to 4 players that he wasn't comfortable playing short handed. He was able to eliminate the other 2 by catching monsters but overall he didn't seem to know when to raise, what to call, etc. I worked my way up to nearly 6k in chips by this point of our heads-up battle when this hand ended it all.

    Question: Is the way I played deuces +EV in this situation Pre-Flop? What about Flop? I had put him on two over cards and with the texture of the flop I didn't think he had anything.

    pokerstars Game #5862373529: Tournament #29679314, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em
    No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2006/08/10 - 01:05:33 (ET)
    Table '29679314 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
    Seat 1: darren_r (5910 in chips)
    Seat 9: CTMark98 (7590 in chips)
    darren_r: posts the ante 25
    CTMark98: posts the ante 25
    darren_r: posts small blind 100
    CTMark98: posts big blind 200
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to darren_r [2d 2c]
    darren_r: calls 100
    CTMark98: raises 400 to 600
    darren_r: calls 400
    *** FLOP *** [8s 6c 3s]
    CTMark98: bets 6965 and is all-in
    darren_r: calls 5285 and is all-in
    *** TURN *** [8s 6c 3s] [Jc]
    *** RIVER *** [8s 6c 3s Jc] [6d]
    darren_r said, "cmon"
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    CTMark98: shows [Jd Qc] (two pair, Jacks and Sixes)
    darren_r: shows [2d 2c] (two pair, Sixes and Deuces)
    CTMark98 collected 11820 from pot
    darren_r [observer] said, "gg"
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 11820 | Rake 0
    Board [8s 6c 3s Jc 6d]
    Seat 1: darren_r (button) (small blind) showed [2d 2c] and lost with
    two pair, Sixes and Deuces
    Seat 9: CTMark98 (big blind) showed [Jd Qc] and won (11820) with two
    pair, Jacks and Sixes
    CTMark09 said, "Dude 2 2?"
    CTMark09 said, "cmon"
  2. jay_shark jay_shark is offline

    NY
    United States

    Posts: 2,633
    Joined: Oct 05

    Aug 10th, 2006 (8/10/2006 1:39am) in reply to GopherFan28

    Look at it this way . Suppose he makes this play with any two cards .

    Then two thirds of the time the flop misses him but he'll win about 25 % of the time .
    2/3*1/4 = 0.1666666

    Now one third of the time , the flop will hit him and so he'll win about 30 % of the time .

    This means that he'll win about 30+ 16.666= 46.6666 % of the time if he played this way with any two cards . That is pretty significant considering that he won't play this hand with any two cards so you have to figure that you are an underdog against his possible range of hands by the river .

    You are calling 5285 to win a pot containing 5285+1200 = 6485 . In other words you need to win at least 5285/ (5285+6485) or 44.9 % .

    It should be clear that you won't win 44.9 % of the time unless you think he would play in this manner with any two cards like I showed above .
  3. nowicki2005 nowicki2005 is offline

    Portland, MI
    United States

    Posts: 1,044
    Joined: Mar 05

    Aug 10th, 2006 (8/10/2006 7:13am) in reply to GopherFan28

    im not going to crunch numbers right now but this is obviously -ev.
  4. GopherFan28 GopherFan28 is offline

    Saint Paul, MN
    United States

    Posts: 32
    Joined: Feb 06

    Aug 10th, 2006 (8/10/2006 12:27pm) in reply to jay_shark

    Thanks for the reply. Does it matter that I know he won't play that like that with any two cards?
    Like I said, the way he was raising/betting were making his plays pretty obvious. When he raised to 600 pre-flop I immediately put him on two painted cards, or any pair.

    Here was my logic. I'm trying to learn to be better so tell me if/where I'm flawed.

    If there are 6 card possibilities for each pair that means there are 72 hands he could have that dominate me.

    If there are 16 combinations for any two cards then for AK-JT there are 160 hands where we are in a race pre-flop.

    This makes 232 possible hands that I've put him on.

    Now after the flop is nothing but low cards I still lose to the 72 possible paired hands but an a 75% favorite against the 160 hands. 160 * .75 = 120. So I win with 120 of the possible 232 hands (51.7%).

    I think I made a slightly correct call on the flop pct wise but in hindsight I probably shouldn't settle for a coin-flip situation since I had been controlling the heads-up action until then.
    Thread Starter
  5. delete22 delete22 is offline

    Tucson, AZ
    United States

    Posts: 2,605
    Joined: Jul 07

    Aug 11th, 2006 (8/11/2006 12:40pm) in reply to nowicki2005

    i dont like playing 22 for this big of a pot ever
  6. kopdat kopdat is offline

    Barcelona
    Spain

    Posts: 23
    Joined: Jun 05

    Aug 11th, 2006 (8/11/2006 1:23pm) in reply to delete22

    I don't know about the mathematics, but this just seems stupid to me. Even if you're in front at the moment, it's not likely to be by much and there is going to be a ton of cards that can beat you.

    You have 25BBs, you think you're the better player, then pick a better spot.
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