HAND 1:

20 1r 1ao

11 left, i hadnt been stealing or opening alot of pots,mainly because i was short and had just doubled up. My dbl hand was - button raise, super lag romanian 3 bet SB i 4bet jammed BB with 22, button called AK and i won the flip. so doubt that done the image any favors ha.

Lukebro (BB) had just been moved to table, very little info on him. The Opener (Beer Hand 131) was hyper lag, involved in a load of pots, showing bluffs, and opening @ ~40% pre. I am confident if i can flop a set vs him, i can get him to spew off. He had however folded to almost every 3 bet vs him.


***** Hand History for Game 60398779001 ***** (Poker stars)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, April 05, 09:25:54 ET 2011
Table 415010532 12 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Seat 1: lukebro22 ( $306,688 )
Seat 3: Beer hand131 ( $700,436 )
Seat 4: Deadly Orca ( $158,080 )
Seat 5: Hit-Med-Dem! ( $280,042 )
Seat 7: nandor82 ( $1,965,978 )
Seat 8: Spraggs ( $653,368 )
lukebro22 posts ante of [$2000].
Beer hand131 posts ante of [$2000].
Deadly Orca posts ante of [$2000].
Hit-Med-Dem! posts ante of [$2000].
nandor82 posts ante of [$2000].
Spraggs posts ante of [$2000].
Spraggs posts small blind [$10,000].
lukebro22 posts big blind [$20,000].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Spraggs [ 6s 6d ]
Beer hand131 raises [$47,900]
Deadly Orca folds
Hit-Med-Dem! folds
nandor82 folds
Spraggs: ??

Can we flat with my read? Is that better than 3 bet/f? or is just open fold an option. Of course if we do 3 bet or flat we have to take Luke in to account.

Hand 2

$55 DNG

3 tables left - i've had to nit it up, image is tight. no one involved in the hand was crazy or done anything out of line.



***** Hand History for Game 60397424649 ***** (Poker Stars)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, April 05, 08:46:10 ET 2011
Table 415010572 73 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Seat 1: Spraggs ( $101,174 )
Seat 2: Metforlife ( $60,992 )
Seat 3: DaCus3 ( $269,525 )
Seat 4: Ogrodek ( $182,821 )
Seat 6: Strawpedo ( $234,636 )
Seat 8: Alexmp01 ( $337,223)
Seat 9: davydice58 ( $140,926)
Spraggs posts ante of [$700].
Metforlife posts ante of [$700].
DaCus3 posts ante of [$700].
Ogrodek posts ante of [$700].
Strawpedo posts ante of [$700].
Alexmp01 posts ante of [$700].
davydice58 posts ante of [$700].
DaCus3 posts small blind [$3500].
Ogrodek posts big blind [$7000].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Spraggs [ 9c 9d ]
Strawpedo folds
Alexmp01 folds
davydice58 folds
Spraggs raises [$14,000]
Metforlife raises [$60,292]
DaCus3 raises [$103,084]
Ogrodek folds
Spraggs:??

When opening 99 with 15 bbs from the c/o i had no intention of folding, but what am i beating in DaCus's range? if we give him a fairly loose range of 77+ ATs+ AJo+ would this still be a call? I'm not too worried about the shorty otb, but DaCus must be expecting a call from us here right?

does anyone wait for a better spot here? or is folding here just bad?

Hand 3

party poker $109 $15k gtd, im sitting 4/11 final table bubble.

No info on villain, except he is German (lol) stats didnt seem out of the ordinary.


***** Hand History for Game 10332761597 ***** (Party)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, April 05, 11:20:21 ET 2011
Table 15000 Gtd (2199861) Table 1 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 4: Bandazs ( $32,207)
Seat 7: Farley08 ( $71,356)
Seat 1: Spraggs12345 ( $58,403 )
Seat 5: VickyPP ( $10,891 )
Seat 3: dod73 ( $31,665)
Seat 10: marystpepper ( $28,776)
Seat 2: niborreuas1 ( $34,906)
niborreuas1 posts small blind [$750].
dod73 posts big blind [$1500].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Spraggs12345 [ Jd Js ]
Bandazs posts ante of [$150].
Farley08 posts ante of [$150].
Spraggs12345 posts ante of [$150].
VickyPP posts ante of [$150].
dod73 posts ante of [$150].
marystpepper posts ante of [$150].
niborreuas1 posts ante of [$150].
Bandazs folds
VickyPP raises [$10,741]
Farley08 raises [$71,206]
marystpepper folds
Spraggs12345: ?

good anaylsis tyson, would like more thoughts though.

I understand its a long longgg thread, so the replies wont be pages long, but when i gte a few opininons , we can try and weigh it all up.

 

Originally Posted by peanut172

what i would do is:
Hand.1
Fold > 3bet/fold > 3bet/call > Call
Hand.2
Shove it pre, but as played call
Hand.3
I snap call this and its not even close lol

Please provide some analysis, thanks :)

hand 1: I would 3bet/fold given he has been folding to almost every 3 bet u said. and cbet any flop when he calls.
hand 2: I like a shove with 15bb's here it looks weaker imo and we dont have to worry about getting flatted. An then having to play 99 post flop with such a short stack. as played i still call
hand 3: Im pretty happy getting JJ in here and hoping to win a flip at worst. Dont think he ever shows up with AA or KK inless he is BAD.

goood..keep it coming guyss

It seems that most everyone is folding hand 1 and calling hand 3. I'd like to point out what, at least to me, seems like an inconsistency between these two spots.

A couple things about hand 1:
1) the BB is new to the table probably unlikely to recognize the initial opener as being super aggro. With 15bbs he has no fold equity given the pot size if we flat. Thus, he's only shoving for value and rarely bluffing. So I don't see a squeeze being all that likely.
2) Implied odds are 17:1. We usually aim for 20:1 given that we won't always get paid off/someone will squeeze etc. However, in this spot OP specifically stated if he flops a set (8.5:1 odds) he believes he can stack the villain and a squeeze seems unlikely. Are we really quibbling about 20:1 v. 17:1 given the circumstances? It seems to me that flatting for 6% of your stack and folding if you don't flop a set is +EV in this specific spot.

Hand 3:
-Near the FT bubble
-If the short stack busts, we're 2/6 with 4 stacks having ~20bbs. If shorty doubles up we're 2/7 with 5 stacks having ~20bbs.
-Big stack is on our right and there are 3 20bb stacks to our left, 4 if shorty doubles up.
-These dynamics in my mind set up a great situation to steal blinds and build our stack with little risk.

Here's my issue between hands 1/3. We're unwilling to risk 6% of our stack to setmine in a situation that seems ideal -- spewy/bluffy villain, unlikely squeeze situtation, etc. Yet, we're willing to risk our entire stack at the FT bubble on a hand where we have 53-58% equity but have a table setup completely in our favor. If the argument to calling in hand 3 is "if we win we'll be setup to make a deep run", why doesn't that same logic apply to hand 1?

Don't get me wrong, I hate folding JJ in hand 3 and I probably make the call if involved in the hand. And if this was a SNG where I had the same spot everyday, it's an easy call. But at a FT bubble where you don't get this deep often enough for every +cEV play to necessarily be +$EV over the medium term (a month/two months), I don't see the point of risking our stack when 1) I don't think we're an overwhelming favorite, 2) the table dynamics are such that we can probably build our stack through raping the blinds, and 3) we can probably get into a spot with better equity against a small stack that 3bet jams into any decent hand we have.

I think everyone that posted itt is likely better than me. But I just don't understand the reluctance to flat in hand 1 and the strong desire to call in hand 3. Any thoughts? Sorry to partially hijack your thread spraggs.

im just gonna comment on hand 1 because im lazy

i think one thing to keep in mind is that if the villain in hand one is opening 40% then hes often not going to have the top of his range which makes set mining less profitable. him bluffing a ton doesnt necessarily help us because 66 doesnt flop great which means we're going to be facing an overcard or multiple ones and the possibility of facing a barrel on the turn and river if hes as crazy as you say. id rather not be guessing oop with 32bb to start the hand.

if hes the type of person who is going to go crazy when he flops a pair then setmining becomes better. its also important to realize that the BB will be squeezing some % of the time so you cant completely discount that. if youre going to be folding to the squeeze then flatting clearly becomes worse, though im not necessarily looking to call off for 16bb here if he squeezes when we're clueless as to what range hes jamming.

if you have the implied odds to setmine then go for it. id rather do that than 3b after showing a cold 4 with 22 when you had <20bb to start the hand (i'm assuming this because you said you just doubled and you still only have 32.5bb aka it doesnt look good when youre cold 4betting 22 with like 15bb or however much you had.)

keep in mind you can flat without the intention of solely setmining...you could c/r good fops etc if you think his cbet frequency is pretty high and that means you dont need 20-1 because youll be winning the pot other ways

thoughts?

I mean if this guy is crazy enough in hand 1, then I'd rather 3 bet/re-asses then flat, With folding being better than both, (reasons mentions above, squeeze% and 66 plays terri.) If he 4 bets you small enough you can flirt with the idea of having fold eq and 5 betting, if he 4 bet piles obv fold, but i'd rather wait for a5s to spazz with than 66.

Hand 2, gross spot, just shove pre obv, but if you were opening to not fold, then i wouldnt fold.

Hand 3 was a snap. even on party or w/e it was.

Hand 1 I'd say flat is definitely the best play here with over 20bbs

Hand 2 is a sick spot and I'm a super nit so as played I would fold. I would probably raise a little more preflop though to show that I was pot committed and def. not folding in this spot at that point.

Hand 3 you are sitting pretty right now with ~40 bb's and can use your skill advantage and stack to keep acquiring chips. No need to risk the biscuit right here.

in hand 2 i understand why so many ppl say shove, its obviously +ev and unexploitable, and is definately less variance than raise call

but i dont think it is optimal here, raise calling imo allows ppl to spaz monkey shove ranges that otherwise they rnt calling with.

^^w/ this said you can't fold, guy a shoves under 10 bbs, dacuse is prolly assuming ur folding, so he's just gotta be ahead of the 8 bb range, which (since he shouldnt have fold eq) should be fairly tight, but you kno he's got 77+ in his range here. With there still being 3 tables left, and you already being under 15 bbs i just dont think this is a spot we can fold, to many times you've paired over pair cuse, who has chips and doesnt mind "gambling." many times they are going to be sharing outs, and on the rare occasion ur pegged, just bink a 9.

Strong/ Informative thread.

Only humble low stake part timer but heres my 2 penneth.

Hand 1.

Think were forgetting lukebro somewhat, hes getting short stacked, and for that reason wouldnt be keen on 3 bet in case he happens to come over the top, sure 66 is in front of both their ranges and a 3 bet might work against Beerhand but Id prefare to fold or flat in that order.

Hand 2.

As played, considering the table dynamics it does look like Dacus is trying to milk a shove.
Hell, not a pleasant spot!
My head & gut are both saying hes super strong, so kick the cat fold.
Dont think theres much to choose between a raise & a shove pre with 15bb, depends how table is playing.

Hand 3.

Youve 40bb, Id range Farley 88+ATs+KQs+AKo which against JJ is a flip.
Depends how you feel on the day, you could go either way!
A shoves more macho though, dont you think?

 

Originally Posted by Goldenad

im just gonna comment on hand 1 because im lazy

i think one thing to keep in mind is that if the villain in hand one is opening 40% then hes often not going to have the top of his range which makes set mining less profitable. him bluffing a ton doesnt necessarily help us because 66 doesnt flop great which means we're going to be facing an overcard or multiple ones and the possibility of facing a barrel on the turn and river if hes as crazy as you say. id rather not be guessing oop with 32bb to start the hand.

if hes the type of person who is going to go crazy when he flops a pair then setmining becomes better. its also important to realize that the BB will be squeezing some % of the time so you cant completely discount that. if youre going to be folding to the squeeze then flatting clearly becomes worse, though im not necessarily looking to call off for 16bb here if he squeezes when we're clueless as to what range hes jamming.

if you have the implied odds to setmine then go for it. id rather do that than 3b after showing a cold 4 with 22 when you had <20bb to start the hand (i'm assuming this because you said you just doubled and you still only have 32.5bb aka it doesnt look good when youre cold 4betting 22 with like 15bb or however much you had.)

keep in mind you can flat without the intention of solely setmining...you could c/r good fops etc if you think his cbet frequency is pretty high and that means you dont need 20-1 because youll be winning the pot other ways

thoughts?

I didnt 4bet jam 15bbs with 22, i had raise folded after that hand at least once, and the blinds had recently gone up. I had fold equity in that spot.

Hand 1, im thinking as its so close, the safest option is probably just to fold. its so tilting seeing a 237r flop c/r getting flatted and having to c/f the turn.

 

Originally Posted by Spaceh0g

hand 1: Jam is the best play for reasons that gavin stated above, or 3b w the intention of calling, but i like jamming more because then he can't talk himself into 4b jam garbage hands that we may actually be flipping with.

Jamming 33BBs vs an opponent that had folded to nearly all 3 bets is just bad imo. it unbalances my range, and is not as profitable as other options may be.

thats my opinion, not hating, appreciate your opinion.

 

Originally Posted by Spaceh0g

hand 3: I am always calling here, I think he jams much more with hands you dominate or are flipping with then hands that dominate you. I'd give him a range of 88-QQ, with QQ being in his range less often, AJs+, AQo+. Also, this is a spot where if you win you have a huge stack to abuse the final table with and have a real shot and winning the tournament

I think i have to agree with you that its a call, unless i have a read on the isolater. I don't think a fold and dont tell anyone is bad though, as i have a substantial edge other the fields on party.

 

Originally Posted by Spraggs

Hand 1, im thinking as its so close, the safest option is probably just to fold. its so tilting seeing a 237r flop c/r getting flatted and having to c/f the turn.

Jamming 33BBs vs an opponent that had folded to nearly all 3 bets is just bad imo. it unbalances my range, and is not as profitable as other options may be.

So what option is more profitable to you? Folding should not even enter your mind against the villain you describe. Idk how you can advocate folding when you say in the same sentence that he always folds to 3bs. So that leaves us with 3b/f, 3b/c, 3b jamming, or flatting.
3b/f should be out vs this villain because he may be fed up with r/f every time he opens a pot.
As I said earlier 3b/c kind of opens us up to flipping with hands that he probably would fold if we just jam.
Gavin did the math on why a shove is +EV, probably by quite a bit, though he didn't show how many chips you would expect to pick up. Who cares if your range is narrowed by shoving? He is still only going to call a fairly tight range with these stack sizes, gavin's is probably pretty accurate.
Just flatting an opponent who is always folding to 3bs with 66 is just burning chips I think, especially if he is also aggressive post flop. If your hand was stronger I would agree with it more, but we should just pick up the 90k in the middle and move on.

 

Originally Posted by Spraggs

I think i have to agree with you that its a call, unless i have a read on the isolater. I don't think a fold and dont tell anyone is bad though, as i have a substantial edge other the fields on party.

I think a fold here would be really bad! We are trying to win the tournament, not finish 5th. People over estimate their edges in poker sooo much, especially now days. This spot is very +EV, your edge should be in recognizing these spots for what they are and chipping up.

hand 1 is NOT a flat. I would fold for sure...but if i had 30 blinds or less (< 600k) i'd shove on the opener. (there are times to 3b/fold with small pairs, and this is DEF not one of them, ur hand is too strong to do that and often is the best hand here, both 3b/calling and 3b/folding are not the optimal routes for this stack size/this villain, and pocket 6s)

hand 2- shove pre...both of those guys are regs, and ur only making urself look stronger on the standard open here with 15 bbs.

hand 3- call off all-in