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MTT variance insurmountable?

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  1. Zpaceman Zpaceman is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:12pm)

    As part of my efforts to improve my game i've been researching strategy articles and in one of these i came across this surprising quote:

    "if you play multitable tournaments, the unfortunate truth is that the variance is so high that you are not on the right path for steady bankroll growth"

    For the avoidance of bias in your responses, i'm not going to reveal the author of this statement (and please don't let the cat out of the bag if you know who it is), but it is from a highly successful, highly regarded player.

    From my experience of playing almost exclusively mtts for the past 2 years i think i'd have to agree with the general premise of this statement (i.e. you can't achieve steady BR growth playing mtts), but the more important issue, perhaps, is whether this statement should also lead us to the conclusion that to make a living from playing poker we should diversify our game away from mtts?
     
  2. jlclark311 jlclark311 is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:14pm) in reply to Zpaceman

    Ask Annette
     
  3. Cmoney3 Cmoney3 is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:16pm) in reply to Zpaceman

    my conundrum is that i know mtts are high variance, but its the only poker game that interests me enough to concentrate long hours and play correctly.

    but yes, if you want to make more steadier money, play cash games.
  4. msuper73 msuper73 is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:18pm) in reply to Zpaceman

    I dont know who's quote that is, but every decent cash game player figured this out long ago. Even for the few MTTers who are able to consistently overcome tournament variance, their ROI cannot begin to compare to the ROI of a comparabely skilled cash game player. good post though.
  5. Mkind16 Mkind16 is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:20pm) in reply to Cmoney3

    I have that problem too. I used to do very well in cash games but they never interested me enough to put in enough hands. I used to do very well in $100-200 turbo sng's as well, but they bored the hell outta me. The only exciting form of poker is mtt's...even if it's the form of poker I hate the most.
    1
  6. msuper73 msuper73 is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:21pm) in reply to Cmoney3

    im the exact opposite Cmoney, my conundrum is that big scores in MTTs are enticing but I cant bring myself to concentrate and play correct tourney strategy for the long hours reqd knowing that, for the same amount of time spent playing cash games, Im actually losing money.
  7. Cmoney3 Cmoney3 is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:22pm) in reply to msuper73

    thats bc cash game players dont have ROI....
  8. spectrefax spectrefax is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:24pm) in reply to Zpaceman

    I dont agree with this statement. If you are playing against a constant field of players equal to your strength where the edge is so small that it basically falls on who gets the cards, then yes.

    But these days there are SOOO many bad players at all stakes in MTTs that there is enough of an edge to counter balance the naturally high variance of MTTs.
     
  9. peterpjames peterpjames is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:24pm) in reply to Mkind16

    Playing for the "excitement" and not to just steadily make money is not a good mindset...it's a gambler's mentality, IMO...
  10. lordxixor101 lordxixor101 is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:24pm) in reply to Zpaceman

    Well, your really asking 2 distinct questions here. So, let's answer each one separatly

    1) Can you achieve STEADY growth of your bankroll from MTT's?

    2) Can you make a living playing MTT's?

    For question one, your poster mathmatically would seem to be correct (I don't play enough to know for sure). When your battling with 200+ opponents on a daily basis in MTT's, you are going to be very streaky. You might win a few in a row, but you can go long periods of time losing money in them. Just think about it, even with a long run ROI of 100%, if you win, you are usually getting 100+ buy-ins (and those with 100% ROI are winning a few). Think about how often you have to lose when your gaining 100 buy ins for a win, so that you ONLY have 100% ROI. Definitely, MTT's are not going to be steady (unless you consider the losses to be steady interuppted by the occasionaly big spikes).

    But, that is completely different than number 2. With 100% ROI (which top players say they can make, and I'm just using it as a benchmark), you can definitely live off of it. If your making 100k a year, you can live off of it, whether you get it all at once, or if you get a check every single week. With MTT, you just get paid less often (so it likely means more money management, more stress, etc), but it's definitely possible.

    It also makes sense, you really don't hear the story of the person who built a bankroll grinding MTT's. You usually grinded SNG's or cash games, or you hit a big score in a MTT.
  11. msuper73 msuper73 is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:31pm) in reply to Cmoney3

    so if I buy in for $200 and cash out $400, i havent returned 100%? dollars/ hr then for the slow to catch on
  12. cashtorg cashtorg is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:42pm) in reply to lordxixor101

    i def grinded mtt's to build my bankroll...but cash games and sng's helped a little.
     
  13. GODSHAMGOD GODSHAMGOD is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:45pm) in reply to Zpaceman

    ZpacEman, I think that quotE sounds JUST about right. But what do I kNow? That being SAID, IT seems pretty obvious to me.
  14. spectrefax spectrefax is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:46pm) in reply to lordxixor101

    I built my roll grinding MTTs
     
  15. EyeKnows EyeKnows is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:48pm) in reply to msuper73

    "so if I buy in for $200 and cash out $400, i havent returned 100%? dollars/ hr then for the slow to catch on"

    Yes, you have but that doesn't mean you cash-game ROI= 100%.
  16. Cmoney3 Cmoney3 is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:48pm) in reply to msuper73

    no,

    good cash game players calculate winnings by bb/100.
  17. 19FMzadester 19FMzadester is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:50pm) in reply to Zpaceman

    Bull shit :). I will never believe that and i know i will be very welathy 1 day form tournies. Reguardless if what i say is true or not u need that mentality to be succesful. I really am positive i will be wealthy from mtt's. I feel ive ahd some abd timing in my short career. But i know what im capabe of and i will make some good $$$$.

    Ive been playin mtt's with no job and im not in school since jan06. I have dabbled in cash games since then. And my minds always goin so maybe in the future ill have cash coming form otehr stuff besides tournies.

    Dont any of you good player out there let that comment in that article discourage you. Maybe the statement is true if ur strtin fomr scratch in live tournies. But with the amoutn of online tournies you can make it ahppen if ur good and mange ur money well. best of luck to every1.
     
  18. KCKyle KCKyle is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:52pm) in reply to peterpjames

    not at all, my father is a surgeon and he would much rather go through 1 or 2 complex operations than do 14 appendectomies (spelling) in a day, absolute monotony is mundane

    kind of a stretch, but its a close analogy--i think
  19. Clayton_27 Clayton_27 is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:52pm) in reply to 19FMzadester

    Zpaceman, I think your assumptions are correct and pretty obvious.

    However not everyone in the poker industry needs a consistent BR growth with poker, but if the desire if to have a steady BR growth then incorporating SNGs and cash is obv the way to go.
     
  20. JBDenaro157 JBDenaro157 is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:55pm) in reply to 19FMzadester

    This post is so funny and Zpaceman is obv on a losing streak. It's hilarious that people are trying to even agree with him a little. It's not only possible to overcome variance and make steady money but probable if ur good enough. The problem is only about 5% of all MTTers are.
  21. z06fanatic z06fanatic is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 2:59pm) in reply to JBDenaro157

    While I believe MTTs are extremely profitable, the variance that comes with them is immense. What I really wonder is why dont MTT players just play cash other than the "exictement" aspect? It seems cash is more geared towards the professional, since you can sit down whenever you want and leave whenever you want. Also you can obviously make more money. If I had the skills of a top MTT'er Id prob just play cash and forget about grinding donkaments
     2
  22. TheMayor TheMayor is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 3:04pm) in reply to Cmoney3

    Throughout a large sample size you have a constant number that equals your average $ wagered per hand. That number is simply a scaling factor between ROI and bb/100...they measure the exact same thing. For cash games it's just easier to count in bb/100 because you save a step since you don't need to figure out your $wagered/hr.
  23. USCphildo USCphildo is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 3:05pm) in reply to Zpaceman

    I totally agree. It's nearly impossible to achieve STEADY bankroll growth. The fact is, that 95% of a MTTers profits come from 5% of their tournaments. A MTTers bankroll does not increase on a steady pace, but instead, usually slides down during a losing streak, and leaps up with a big win. Over the long run, the bankroll with increase, but during a small sample size, the bankroll is not going to be increasing steadily. If someone is looking for a STEADY increase to a bankroll, obviously cash games are the way to go. But IMO, it's all about making money, steady or not, MTTers are making money.
     1 
  24. Clayton_27 Clayton_27 is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 3:07pm) in reply to USCphildo

    the key word is steady

    good MTTers can post losing months if they include the 100rb and the 1k events in their entire schedule, because thats the nature of the best in regards to variance.

    however if that same MTTer were to apply a schedule that did not include the 100r, the 1k, or the 200r on sunday, i would imagine they would have a significantly more steady bankroll growth.

    that said, MTTs are one of the most unreliable forms of poker in regards to making STEADY income.
     
  25. 19FMzadester 19FMzadester is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 3:10pm) in reply to Clayton_27

    STFU mr 240k lol.

    j/k nice score.
     
  26. msuper73 msuper73 is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 3:11pm) in reply to TheMayor

    i guess i shouldnt type in a hurry when im playing. $ earned per hour. whatever. Im sure cmoney didnt mean to say "more steadier" either. with the intelligence on display here id think you can figure out what i mean.
  27. TheMayor TheMayor is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 3:13pm) in reply to msuper73

    No i was defending your point, i have no problem with cash game players quoting their ROI's if that's how they measur eit...makes perfect sense.
  28. downtown downtown is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 3:14pm) in reply to Clayton_27

    I think that little tidbit escapes a lot of people that play poker. You think you got unlucky because you lost an 80-20, but in reality you're going to lose 1 in 5 of those and in large field MTT's the odds are you will be all in a lot more than 5 times, and rarely as an 80-20 fav. The harsh reality of MTT's is that you need to run very hot to put up a lot of great results, almost everyone of the top ranked p5ers are just on a heater, and have the ability to cash in on that heater to the max. It happened with ActionJeff, Bax, Ari, Annette, Tmay, Imperium, and now lilholdem.
  29. EyeKnows EyeKnows is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 3:27pm) in reply to downtown

    LMFAO at 'run very hot' and 'almost everyone of the top ranked p5ers are just on a heater'...the top ranked players are there because they are good MTTers, not because they run hot for a while.
  30. TheMayor TheMayor is offline

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    Sep 21st, 2007 (9/21/2007 3:31pm) in reply to EyeKnows

    Great players do a lot better with their good cards than mediocre players do with their good cards though. I think that's the point he's trying to make. If you go on a heater but don't have any skills, you can make a critical mistake or two and bust out of your tournaments in 8th or 9th place, where as a great player on a heater will not make those same mistakes and that will allow him to take 1st or 2nd more often. This is basically the same discussion as is going on in Timex's thread...pretty much obvious to everyone that good players are good, bad players are bad, and all players get good luck sometimes.
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