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MTT Variance - live vs. online.

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  1. PocketPJW PocketPJW is offline

    Tampa, FL
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    Aug 17th, 2010 (8/17/2010 6:10pm)

    I have been thinking a lot about this lately. I'm sure that most here would agree that the online game is so much tougher to beat these days than it was several years ago and the only way to copmbat the swings is by putting in much more volume. unfortunately, with my work commitments, gf, etc it doesn't leave much time for poker. And so what may be a week long dpwnswing for one could be severals months for a guy like me. Not a good feeling...
    So this past year or so I have decided to take mini poker vacations and have managed to play about 20 tournaments ranging from $230 to 10k.

    I've cashed in 8 of those tournies with a couple final tables sprinked in resultone in a great ROI, whereas I'm mediocre at best across all sites online.

    So my question for those of you who grind online but also put in significant valume online is do you find live MTTs to have much less variance? What could a reasonable long term expectation be as far as ITM and ROI? For a guy like me, perhaps mooing strictly to live may be best .

    Discussions on this are welcome and apprecitated.

    P.S. Sorry for typos I'm on cell. Thanks!
  2. agilles agilles is offline

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    Aug 17th, 2010 (8/17/2010 6:18pm) in reply to PocketPJW

    Yeah, I agree with what you're saying. Live play is definetly softer, and maybe your live game is just better... The probelm with live play is that you can never put in serious volume, like you could 16+ tabling at home.
  3. thereraise thereraise is offline

    San Diego, CA
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    Aug 17th, 2010 (8/17/2010 6:37pm) in reply to agilles

    Live poker is def easier to beat than online, however there are more upfront costs that effect your bottom line (and in turn your ROI and profit). Paying for travel (air or gas) to get to these live tourneys, then for lodging at each place, food and whatnot that you need to purcahse since you are not at your house, etc. These little things add up a lot if your traveling around or even just staying in say vegas fro a few weeks during the summer. Unless you are a great player with a roll big enough to play the big 5k+ events, traveling and just playing live MTT is tough. Variance wise you may travel across the damn countrysometimes playing numerous tourneys for months before you even get a cash, let a lone a big enough to cash to sustain even more tourney traveling. The down time in between tourneys needs to be filled with something (live cash or online vloume) to lessen variance or just to make money to continue down the live mtt path.........
  4. jsagan77 jsagan77 is offline

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    Aug 17th, 2010 (8/17/2010 6:45pm) in reply to thereraise

    The players live are much tighter and the fields are much smaller resulting in less variance because of the amount of showdowns a hand will go to. Online you have massive fields and a ton of games to choose from. With that said Tournament life doesn't hold the same value online as it does live so folks feel inclined to make more moves with a wider range of hands so there is bound to be more variance... Plus the live RNG doesn't care if you have a bigger stack when you get a call by a 12 bb shove with AQ to your opponents AJ... The J doesn't come every time.. haha
  5. z06fanatic z06fanatic is offline

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    Aug 17th, 2010 (8/17/2010 7:32pm) in reply to jsagan77

    your edge live is alot greater so it would be less variance, but since volume isnt like it is online you can go much longer stretches breaking even/losing.....maybe online as well in the higher stakes your not as good as you think you are.....id just send a hh or two to good players and see what they think
     2
  6. PocketPJW PocketPJW is offline

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    Aug 17th, 2010 (8/17/2010 7:51pm) in reply to z06fanatic

    Z06....with all due respect, the post was not about whether or not I'm a good player. I have played with you a lot on AP (pjw1168) and my ROI is well over 100 pct , stars is another story though. Regardless, other than a donk play here or there I'm suprised you would say that.
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  7. z06fanatic z06fanatic is offline

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    Aug 17th, 2010 (8/17/2010 8:00pm) in reply to PocketPJW

     
    Originally Posted by PocketPJW View Post

    Z06....with all due respect, the post was not about whether or not I'm a good player. I have played with you a lot on AP (pjw1168) and my ROI is well over 100 pct , stars is another story though. Regardless, other than a donk play here or there I'm suprised you would say that.

    you do play real good, Im not saying your bad at poker im saying you should actively work on improving.....every1 should unless your phil ivey, you prob have leaks you dont realize....just saying if people spend more time actively getting better then they would do better long term
     2
  8. _rayden_ _rayden_ is offline

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    Aug 18th, 2010 (8/18/2010 12:08am) in reply to z06fanatic

     
    Originally Posted by z06fanatic View Post

    you do play real good, Im not saying your bad at poker im saying you should actively work on improving.....every1 should unless your phil ivey, you prob have leaks you dont realize....just saying if people spend more time actively getting better then they would do better long term

    ^^^ this... plus your ROI goes up single tabling live or online. u just make less per hour
  9. Mrfreeze53 Mrfreeze53 is offline

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    Aug 18th, 2010 (8/18/2010 2:30am) in reply to PocketPJW

    It seems to me that having only played like 20 live tourneys and cashing in 8 of them seems a little high, but it may be best for you to switch to live poker. Without bringing into account your live roi or hourly rate vs your online, which do you enjoy more? Would you rather play live than online? Since you feel that online you may run bad for long periods of time, it could turn into a self fulfilling proficiency. You might as well give live a serious go and just take a break from online.
  10. donkiman donkiman is offline

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    Aug 18th, 2010 (8/18/2010 3:30am) in reply to Mrfreeze53

    Ever been on a run online where u lose 10+ mtts in a row with AA, KK, or QQ? That run could last 5 hours. After the downswing variance is over you run better and your cashing a few hours later. I can't imagine the mental strain of bricking 10+ live tournies. That could last weeks or months. Having said that, the play is typically softer live (from my limited experience) but much more fun. Keep us updated.
     
  11. ChicagoStizz ChicagoStizz is offline

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    Aug 18th, 2010 (8/18/2010 4:39pm) in reply to donkiman

    I think like most people said, live play is softer. I only play a little online, i mostly play live MTT and live SNG at the Florida card rooms, and it is ridiculous what your ITM ratio can be playing live in soft poker rooms. This may change in Florida over the next few years now that the stakes are different and there is new interest to play here (wpt and wsop cir. coming), but for the last two years, the tournys here ranged from $60-$850 for MTT. The fields are smaller and not even close to the quality of play in same buy in levels online. My suggestion, move to the area of FL i live in, the card rooms are filled with rich retirees.
  12. PocketPJW PocketPJW is offline

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    Aug 18th, 2010 (8/18/2010 6:33pm) in reply to ChicagoStizz

    N
     
    Originally Posted by ChicagoStizz View Post

    I think like most people said, live play is softer. I only play a little online, i mostly play live MTT and live SNG at the Florida card rooms, and it is ridiculous what your ITM ratio can be playing live in soft poker rooms. This may change in Florida over the next few years now that the stakes are different and there is new interest to play here (wpt and wsop cir. coming), but for the last two years, the tournys here ranged from $60-$850 for MTT. The fields are smaller and not even close to the quality of play in same buy in levels online. My suggestion, move to the area of FL i live in, the card rooms are filled with rich retirees.

    No problem. I live in Sarasota too. played at one eyed jacks for the first time since the buy in changed and the 5/10 game was rediculously loose.
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  13. ChicagoStizz ChicagoStizz is offline

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    Aug 18th, 2010 (8/18/2010 7:48pm) in reply to PocketPJW

    Pocket, I live in Bradenton, and One Eyed Jacks is a great room to play in if you want a good profit. haven't been there in awhile, how many 5/10 tables they have going?
  14. PocketPJW PocketPJW is offline

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    Aug 18th, 2010 (8/18/2010 8:32pm) in reply to ChicagoStizz

    1 during week. 2 on weekends from what I hear. Supposedly the 10/20 game will get going this Saturday...
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