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My turn steal... viable or not?

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  1. SlayNL SlayNL is offline

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    Oct 7th, 2010 (10/7/2010 10:55pm)

    So I was playing a $100 live last night with 10 tables (10max) and this particular hand happened at the 400/800 blind level.

    I was about 3rd in chips at my table and probably top 15 or so with about 40 left.

    I was playing fairly LAG as my table was unbelievably tight for the most part. Lot's of pre-flop limps.

    I was on just under $60k.

    On the button I get AhTh

    3 limps around so I popped it to $3800

    Only the SB calls and he has only been at our table for the last few hands (of which he has been hyper agro). He has about $70k behind

    Flop: Kc 8h 9s

    He checks

    Not having the greatest read on him other than the 3 or 4 hands he's just played, I'm not looking to get check raised here, even if he does have air. I check

    Turn: 4c

    Without hesitation he throws out $6k (into a $10k pot)

    Thinking I can take this down here, I made it $28.5k

    Is this viable? I'd like to get some thoughts on his range here.

    Not that I have any solid reads but I'm thinking he has air here
  2. mdshack14 mdshack14 is offline

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    Oct 7th, 2010 (10/7/2010 11:02pm) in reply to SlayNL

    I'm thinking he has a pocket pair here. From my experience that what it usually turns out to be especially calling that raise out of position with that many limpers and no table reads. I feel like you're giving away money here by bluff raising him here with no reads and no draws.
     
  3. SlayNL SlayNL is offline

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    Oct 7th, 2010 (10/7/2010 11:03pm) in reply to mdshack14

    Pocket pair below 88?
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  4. mdshack14 mdshack14 is offline

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    Oct 7th, 2010 (10/7/2010 11:11pm) in reply to SlayNL

    It definitely could be. I feel like $100 live tourneys probably are filled with a ton of inexperienced player so alot of pairs could be in his range here.
     
  5. SlayNL SlayNL is offline

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    Oct 7th, 2010 (10/7/2010 11:15pm) in reply to mdshack14

    Couldn't agree more but 60% of the field is gone which trims a bit of the fat (not saying that the 40 left are anything that even resembles good)

    Do you think hands like KJ, KT, JT, QJ, J7 are in his range? Being hyper agro over the last few hands I'd safely rule out anything with a king... seeing as though he checked the flop
    Edited By: SlayNL Oct 7th, 2010 at 11:15 PM
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  6. coolhandkev coolhandkev is offline

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    Oct 7th, 2010 (10/7/2010 11:19pm) in reply to SlayNL

    I think you'd be better off trying to float one here. But if you are going to raise I would raise way less.
  7. SlayNL SlayNL is offline

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    Oct 7th, 2010 (10/7/2010 11:32pm) in reply to coolhandkev

     
    Originally Posted by coolhandkev View Post

    I think you'd be better off trying to float one here. But if you are going to raise I would raise way less.

    I didn't want to make it 18-20k. That would price him in to chase any straight draws or even call with T9 T8 97 87 etc.
    Edited By: SlayNL Oct 8th, 2010 at 12:02 AM
    Reason: more analysis
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  8. Itghtuhadkk Itghtuhadkk is offline

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    Oct 8th, 2010 (10/8/2010 1:35am) in reply to SlayNL

    ive plaayed alot of those type of touneys live and where im from J9 suited is 100% in his range and by suited i mean clubs here
  9. SlayNL SlayNL is offline

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    Oct 8th, 2010 (10/8/2010 1:48am) in reply to Itghtuhadkk

     
    Originally Posted by Itghtuhadkk View Post

    ive plaayed alot of those type of touneys live and where im from J9 suited is 100% in his range and by suited i mean clubs here

    I really couldn't see how he's checking the flop with J9 though
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  10. charbarj41 charbarj41 is offline

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    Oct 8th, 2010 (10/8/2010 1:56am) in reply to SlayNL

    your line makes no sense here, and the raise is way too much
     
  11. SlayNL SlayNL is offline

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    Oct 8th, 2010 (10/8/2010 3:32am) in reply to charbarj41

     
    Originally Posted by charbarj41 View Post

    your line makes no sense here, and the raise is way too much

    Hence the title 'My turn steal'

    It's a sizeable raise I'll admit but if I pop him by only 10 or 12, he's likely to call me w/ JT, T9, T8 etc which is what I'm trying to avoid.

    If not even those hands, he's probably mucking King rag to such a raise.

    This is only a $100 live MTT - force is quite often the only thing these fish can comprehend.
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  12. mdshack14 mdshack14 is offline

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    Oct 8th, 2010 (10/8/2010 3:44am) in reply to SlayNL

     
    Originally Posted by SlayNL View Post

    Hence the title 'My turn steal'

    It's a sizeable raise I'll admit but if I pop him by only 10 or 12, he's likely to call me w/ JT, T9, T8 etc which is what I'm trying to avoid.

    If not even those hands, he's probably mucking King rag to such a raise.

    This is only a $100 live MTT - force is quite often the only thing these fish can comprehend.

    With no reads there is no way you can honestly believe he's folding a king here, especially if you have no idea if he's a thinking player or not.
     
  13. SlayNL SlayNL is offline

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    Oct 8th, 2010 (10/8/2010 3:54am) in reply to mdshack14

    I'm not genuinely putting him on a king here at all...

    The way he played the 4 hands before this one (tiny sample, I know) he would definitely be leading out on the flop with a king, no matter how he was kicked. He led out the hand before with A3 on a A9T board and got called down by AJ...

    That bet was basically to get the JT, T9, T8 range off their hand with the small possibility of moving a weak king (not that I thought he had it)
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  14. firaldo firaldo is offline

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    Oct 8th, 2010 (10/8/2010 3:57am) in reply to SlayNL

    just bet flop
    394 
  15. SlayNL SlayNL is offline

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    Oct 8th, 2010 (10/8/2010 4:01am) in reply to firaldo

    In hindsight, yes but is it worth potentially getting check raised here?
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  16. nemmylocks nemmylocks is offline

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    Oct 8th, 2010 (10/8/2010 4:44am) in reply to SlayNL

     
    Originally Posted by SlayNL View Post

    I didn't want to make it 18-20k. That would price him in to chase any straight draws or even call with T9 T8 97 87 etc.

    If hes going to bet/call with 2nd and 3rd pair with no reads then you probably shouldnt be bluffraising him.
  17. leatherass6 leatherass6 is offline

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    Oct 8th, 2010 (10/8/2010 4:53am) in reply to SlayNL

    how can you completely real out a king here?,,, K5 suited could be in this "hyper agro" players range.... usually the hyper agro type will check their top pairs and feel like they are slow playing. sounds like you didnt have a plan with this hand. What do you expect to accomplish checking flop here? best case scenario an ace hits... i dont think your gonna feel comfortable hitting your ten. i would absolutely not count out a king here. it does sound like 5's or 6's tho.
  18. SlayNL SlayNL is offline

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    Oct 8th, 2010 (10/8/2010 5:22am) in reply to nemmylocks

     
    Originally Posted by nemmylocks View Post

    If hes going to bet/call with 2nd and 3rd pair with no reads then you probably shouldnt be bluffraising him.

    Well with no reads how do I know he's bet/calling with 2nd or 3rd pair?

     
    Originally Posted by leatherass6 View Post

    how can you completely real out a king here?,,, K5 suited could be in this "hyper agro" players range.... usually the hyper agro type will check their top pairs and feel like they are slow playing. sounds like you didnt have a plan with this hand. What do you expect to accomplish checking flop here? best case scenario an ace hits... i dont think your gonna feel comfortable hitting your ten. i would absolutely not count out a king here. it does sound like 5's or 6's tho.

    I never completely "real" out anything. I just can't see him checking the flop then only betting 6k if he's got it. Smells fishy
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  19. leatherass6 leatherass6 is offline

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    Oct 9th, 2010 (10/9/2010 1:28am) in reply to SlayNL

    dont post for help and then get defensive...
  20. el arracachero el arracachero is offline

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    Oct 9th, 2010 (10/9/2010 2:02am) in reply to leatherass6

    I like your play but i prefer a flop cbet because you have one over and a backdoor straight which adds equity to your hand. Dont bother if you get check raised, you are showing a lot of strenght here.

    I would also have made a smaller raise in the turn. If he calls, you should be shoving a lot of brick rivers. Its ok if he calls with T9 or J9 in the turn. However, Its going to be very difficult for him to call your river shove unless he improves.
  21. P33J P33J is offline

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    Oct 9th, 2010 (10/9/2010 2:20am) in reply to el arracachero

    gl trying to get some random in a $100 live tourney to fold
     
  22. donkedby_G00_K donkedby_G00_K is offline

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    Oct 9th, 2010 (10/9/2010 2:03pm) in reply to P33J

    I like raising preflop less here obv. 3800 is not nesc. maybe 3100 - when he leads the tuirn his range is very wide without more information on physical tells or bet sizing patterns you may know about...

    He def could bet the turn this way with kj kq etc alost sets and some air depending on the player..

    On the flop you raised preflop so if this player had any big hand he would probably be going for a ck raise??
  23. sambhygreen sambhygreen is offline

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    Oct 9th, 2010 (10/9/2010 2:14pm) in reply to donkedby_G00_K

    Float turn and valuebet bluff the river.
  24. lockwoodlad lockwoodlad is offline

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    Oct 9th, 2010 (10/9/2010 2:17pm) in reply to donkedby_G00_K

    You say you didn't bet flop because u don't want to get check raised but you also say you are sure a king is not in his range. What are you scared that he is check raising then? if you are going to get half your stack in on a dry turn I think a content bet and then shove over a check raise is a better and more believable line. The only hands that make sense with your line are kk ak or a set and if you have either of those why such a big reraise would be my thinking if I am your opponent
  25. jdbunchOSU jdbunchOSU is offline

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    Oct 9th, 2010 (10/9/2010 4:00pm) in reply to lockwoodlad

    bet flop. If he smooth calls, you get free card on river most likely. You ended up costing yourself more not knowing where you're at or what he could have by not betting the flop. If you get checked raised, oh well, throw your cards in. EDIT: essencially you paid 30k+ total in the hand to figure out where you were instead of paying roughly 10k to figure it out.
    Edited By: jdbunchOSU Oct 9th, 2010 at 04:01 PM
  26. kanders10 kanders10 is offline

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    Oct 9th, 2010 (10/9/2010 4:34pm) in reply to jdbunchOSU

    there is a ton of bad advice outside of the last 2 by saying bet the flop. just bet 6-8k on flop and simplify the hand instead of risking 28k on a suicide bluff
  27. SlayNL SlayNL is offline

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    Oct 11th, 2010 (10/11/2010 12:37am) in reply to kanders10

    Cheers for the feedback so far, here is how the river plays out:

    He flats my turn raise. Td drops on the river giving me 2nd top.

    He checks the river...

    Would you just flip your cards over or lead out w/ 10's?
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  28. lockwoodlad lockwoodlad is offline

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    Oct 11th, 2010 (10/11/2010 1:26am) in reply to SlayNL

    This is a definete check behind for me. You may have caught up and about the only hand which may call you that you beat is 10J which had the open ender. I wouldn't want to risk the checkraise from 910 or from 67
  29. SlayNL SlayNL is offline

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    Oct 11th, 2010 (10/11/2010 1:51am) in reply to lockwoodlad

     
    Originally Posted by lockwoodlad View Post

    This is a definete check behind for me. You may have caught up and about the only hand which may call you that you beat is 10J which had the open ender. I wouldn't want to risk the checkraise from 910 or from 67

    Is 67 realistically in his range here? Calling off almost $30k with the butt end of an open ender?
    Edited By: SlayNL Oct 11th, 2010 at 01:57 AM
    Reason: i splell goopd
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  30. P33J P33J is offline

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    Oct 11th, 2010 (10/11/2010 2:54am) in reply to SlayNL

    Definitely checking behind that river
     
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