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Ok so basically, I have AQ in the BB here, the CL is pretty loose, his standard raise is 4x and he's been raising a pretty wide range, like any A, any broadways, any pair, prolly some other stuff, his PFR is 24% is that means anything to anyone. He's also raise/called a couple shoves with A7 when the pot odds were kinda close. The SB has been relatively tight so far at the final table, but earlier he wasn't so tight and had been 3-betting a bit more. I feel like tease's 4x is dead money about 80% of the time. Ridge isn't 3-betting LIGHT, like probably no complete bluffs, but I feel like he's not mucking ATs or most PPs in this spot. So basically the question is, do you get it in, or wait for a better spot? If anyone knows the results plz don't post.
pokerstars Game #26703736486: Tournament #150914359, $150+$12 Hold'em No Limit - Level XXII (4000/8000) - 2009/04/04 2:50:17 ET
Table '150914359 58' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: MikeMcd1921 (101820 in chips)
Seat 3: ridgewarrior (299494 in chips)
Seat 5: Vekked (365600 in chips)
Seat 8: triggathree (270461 in chips)
Seat 9: teasebambam (1095625 in chips)
MikeMcd1921: posts the ante 800
ridgewarrior: posts the ante 800
Vekked: posts the ante 800
triggathree: posts the ante 800
teasebambam: posts the ante 800
ridgewarrior: posts small blind 4000
Vekked: posts big blind 8000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Vekked [As Qc]
triggathree: folds
teasebambam: raises 24000 to 32000
MikeMcd1921: folds
ridgewarrior: raises 53000 to 85000
Vekked: ... ? -
I don't think he had been 3-bet w/ money behind so far b/c the stacks at the FT had been mostly reshove stacks since he had such a monster chip lead the entire time. I checked my stats and he had been 3-bet 4 times, folded once. 2 of those times he raised 4x/called shove w/ A7o, forget the other times but I think he raise/called with a decent hand one other time. So I'm not sure what this would say about ridge's 3-betting range, I'd guess at least that his 3-bets are for value, but not quite JJ+/AK value, I think it'd be a bit wider than that since the CL's been so loose.
Basically my plan prior to Ridge's 3-bet was to just ship my AQ on the CL since I didn't really feel like making it 90k or something, getting flatted by w/e hand he had that he couldn't fold, and having to play OOP w/ almost a third of my chips in already. Maybe this is bad but I'm not sure how else to play it. After ridge 3-bet, I just felt like if he was thinking what I was, this would be a good spot to 3-bet, and as such I was probably ahead of his range + the CL's 4x raise was dead money in the pot. This solid thinking or no? -
I'd shove for sure - the fact that the guy was active earlier but hasn't been for a while I think makes him more likely to be light since you know he is capable of it and it's a good spot for him to 3b with his current image and how laggy the cl is. I jam and expect both to fold a decent % of the time.
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Yeap, pretty much my thinking. Wasn't sure if I maybe levelled myself a bit since if ridge was thinking 'I'm not going to 3-bet this crazy guy unless I have the nizzles since he's calling with A7 and there's a guy that should be busting soon', then shoving AQ would be horrible b/c I'd be hoping for TT/JJ at best, but I felt like since CL is 4x'ing with his entire range, and he's not gonna be able to call with a lot of it, it's a great spot to chip up.
Originally Posted by stevie444
I'd shove for sure - the fact that the guy was active earlier but hasn't been for a while I think makes him more likely to be light since you know he is capable of it and it's a good spot for him to 3b with his current image and how laggy the cl is. I jam and expect both to fold a decent % of the time.
On the other hand, using this logic maybe ridge's smaller raise w/ potential FE is b/c he wants action from the CL... or it could mean that he doesn't want to commit himself in case I come over top. So many angles... only 2 options :(.
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