[DoomSwitchHater]

When you bust out of a tournament how often is it because you had the best hand when the chips went in and you got drawn out on?

I kept track of the last 30 games I busted out of, which was 30 (go figure) and in 22 of them I was a big favorite, 4 of them I was a coin flip favorite (held the pair vs offsuit Ak/AQ), in 1 game I had the same hand as my opponent and he got four cards to a flush, the other three I chased draws that did not get there.

Is this pretty standard or is God telling me to quit? the last four in a row were all two-outers on the flop (smaller pairs making a set).

I just can't wrap my mind around being able to find enough retards to make that many bad calls (some of them are mind boggling) and STILL lose to them.

Only one really sticks out that I was short stacked enough to justify getting called by 22 (had QQ).

I fully understand AA gets beat now and then, but at this point I am starting to see monsters in the closet if you know what I mean. I'm almost afraid to get it in pre-flop when I have KK and someone shoves in front of me.

Is all this pretty standard, or am I just too unlucky to play MTT's?

Help, I'm drowning.....

[3kingme3]

think of it this way, if you get all your chips in as a 70% favorite 2 times is the torny, you will only win both of those situations 49% of the time, thats why varicance is so huge, think about the odds of 4 70 30 favorite spots...keep pluggin away

[tvyawbus]

email support and tell them to put your account in run good mode

post more

[DoomSwitchHater]

 

Originally Posted by 3kingme3

think of it this way, if you get all your chips in as a 70% favorite 2 times is the torny, you will only win both of those situations 49% of the time, thats why varicance is so huge, think about the odds of 4 70 30 favorite spots...keep pluggin away

Maybe this is what I don't understand so well. When someone says they are going to bet on Red at the roulette wheel because the last 8 spins have been black people say it's a bad idea because the odds are still 50/50 as the wheel doesn't remember what came up last.

Poker players on the other hand use examples like the one quoted to explain away variance.

Reguardless of how many times I get it in with AA vs 22 shouldn't I still be just as big a favorite to win the hand instead of getting knocked out?

[NOtoDaY]

yes... u are important enough for god to personally tell you to quit playing poker by sending you bad beats. o ffs this is 1 dumbass post.

[3kingme3]

 

Originally Posted by DoomSwitchHater

 

Originally Posted by 3kingme3

think of it this way, if you get all your chips in as a 70% favorite 2 times is the torny, you will only win both of those situations 49% of the time, thats why varicance is so huge, think about the odds of 4 70 30 favorite spots...keep pluggin away

Maybe this is what I don't understand so well. When someone says they are going to bet on Red at the roulette wheel because the last 8 spins have been black people say it's a bad idea because the odds are still 50/50 as the wheel doesn't remember what came up last.

Poker players on the other hand use examples like the one quoted to explain away variance.

Reguardless of how many times I get it in with AA vs 22 shouldn't I still be just as big a favorite to win the hand instead of getting knocked out?

yes the odds of winning any individual 70/30 is 70/30, but the odds of winning 2 is .7x.7=.49

[Archie1106]

email support and tell them to put your account in run good mode

^^^ this

[DoomSwitchHater]

 

Originally Posted by 3kingme3

 

Originally Posted by DoomSwitchHater

 

Originally Posted by 3kingme3

think of it this way, if you get all your chips in as a 70% favorite 2 times is the torny, you will only win both of those situations 49% of the time, thats why varicance is so huge, think about the odds of 4 70 30 favorite spots...keep pluggin away

Maybe this is what I don't understand so well. When someone says they are going to bet on Red at the roulette wheel because the last 8 spins have been black people say it's a bad idea because the odds are still 50/50 as the wheel doesn't remember what came up last.

Poker players on the other hand use examples like the one quoted to explain away variance.

Reguardless of how many times I get it in with AA vs 22 shouldn't I still be just as big a favorite to win the hand instead of getting knocked out?

yes the odds of winning any individual 70/30 is 70/30, but the odds of winning 2 is .7x.7=.49

OK, then what are the odds of that 9th spin being Black on the roulette wheel? Are they still 50/50 (minun the green 0's) or does the player now have an enormous edge betting on red?

I would say the odds are still 50/50 reguardless of what has happened previously so I should still be a 70/30 favorite with AA vs 22, right?

NOW to further illustrate the point, what are the odds (using your example) of busting out of 4 games in a row holding a 70/30 edge when the chips go in?

[isator]

Doom, I got my aces cracked 4x yesterday and got my QQ,JJ,AK,AQ cracked by 22's.. it happens.. keep playing

**** edit for the idiots****
ak, aq got cracked when i had top pair top kicker and a 2 peeled off on the turn or river for a set.. dumbass!

[creg27]

give the game up now my friend. i wish i never started playing this stupid game

[tmac2424]

okay u must first understand probability

so w/ur example, each spin of the roulette wheel is in ISOLATION of the others and obv has no MEMORY of previous spins so each time u spin its 50/50

IF you want to talk about 9 spins IN A ROW (not seperately) then you can do .5*.5*.5 ........ etc to find the odds of all those incidents happening IN A ROW (key words) On the 9th spin tho, if u treat that action IN ISOLATION then it is still 50/50

We all run bad, and ive made similar posts previously after running bad for weeks and considering quitting. Remember tho, that as a MTTer all it takes is one big win and you've made back all your losses and more (if your a profitable player that is) so i know wut ur feeling. Just keep grinding away and try to take all emotion out of ur decisions and don't focus on the things you can't control (how the cards come out) Try to think about the times you ran like god - it helps. O and also try minimizing ur MTT window when u get it it as a coin flip/fave preflop so it isnt so dramatic.

[Believer82]

30 games I can only amagine your pain...

[Defndrofangels]

All poker players have been there. No poker player can ever claim that they never had a horrific bad beat. Keep playing, it'll eventually turn around. Earlier this week I was getting some wicked bad beats but lately they've been holding on. Keep at it. It'll turn around.

[Jlivey]

 

Originally Posted by isator

Doom, I got my aces cracked 4x yesterday and got my QQ,JJ,AK,AQ cracked by 22's.. it happens.. keep playing

Ummm..... how does AQ and AK get cracked? Just wondering for future references.

[Jennifear]

This might help:

http://www.pocketfives.com/poker-art...d-Them-2425792

hope it does

[DoomSwitchHater]

Thank you all for the replies.

[FastMoney7]

 

Originally Posted by Jlivey

 

Originally Posted by isator

Doom, I got my aces cracked 4x yesterday and got my QQ,JJ,AK,AQ cracked by 22's.. it happens.. keep playing

Ummm..... how does AQ and AK get cracked? Just wondering for future references.

LOL

[SickHand89]

I just got knocked out of a tournament holding AK, versus a guy who snap called my preflop allin with K10, and I was in the top 10% chip counts too, so it was a pretty big call. Obviously he hits a ten and I'm out. It sucks, but you get used to it at micro stakes. I think overall so far I've done pretty well in races, last tournament I played I remember winning 3 coinflips in a row, so, yeah.

[DoomSwitchHater]

I have only played on-line for about 5 years now, but I just don't ever remember (live or on-line) running THIS bad.

With the hands I have been dealt you hope and pray you can find enough retards to call and pay you off, but they keep having more miracle cards appear than Houdini recently.

Frustrating doesn't begin to cover it. I honestly think last night was the first time I actually punched something out of frustration in over 10 years, these cards are sick.

[Claydog07]

Yes, you are running bad. Yes, it will happen again. You don't have to let this tought be what guides your play at the tables, though. In the end, you have to think positively to have positive results. It is much easier said than done, obviously, but if you focus on what you want, instead of what you dont want, you will not only be in a much better mood, but you will be in a much better state of mind to play.

Happiness sholdnt ride on a deck of cards, because often it will leave you unhappy. All you can do is keep plugging at it, keep trying to learn, keep your hopes up.

Some who believe in Intention-Manifestation actually believe that the thought alone of you thinking bad things will happen actually make them come true.

Just dont feed the monster and make it stronger. Its already strong enough to bring you down without the deppression, and negativity you potentially feed it.

dont sweat the small stuff(Everything is small stuff)

Good Luck

[sirswish6 i mean super business]

"If you're always ahead when you get it in you're not getting it in enough."

[timfbmx]

Dont worry I'm running the same way right now. I kinda feel like you at this point, and its pretty sickening lol. But I'm fighting through it going to some lower stakes and trying to build my way back up. Don't give up because eventually your big swing will go the other way and you will be on a sick hot streak like elky lol

[isator]

 

Originally Posted by Jlivey

 

Originally Posted by isator

Doom, I got my aces cracked 4x yesterday and got my QQ,JJ,AK,AQ cracked by 22's.. it happens.. keep playing

Ummm..... how does AQ and AK get cracked? Just wondering for future references.

Top pair Top Kicker.... Turn or River a 2 for a set obv

You guys are idiots with your smart ass remarks.. but your scores speak for themselves obv

[ITM_247]

can I get 4 hours for the "october, 2006" price??? My birthday is in october :D

-itm

[Strifer]

An article I posted on my site recently:

Is there a more cold hearted whore than variance? This is one of the more challenging aspects of the mental battle that has become online poker. In any given day you can see hundreds to thousands of hands, and along the way, you're going to see, experience, and live through bad beats, suckouts, and see plays that you weren't prepared for when you woke up that day.

You hear it everyday, most of us have said it, "I get it in with the best hand, and always wind up on the wrong end to these donkeys." Feel free to substitute donkeys with your favorite word in this situation.

However, what many fail to remember, is that there is a very cold calculating mathmatical element to poker. When you get your opponent down to two outs on the river, leaving them a 5% chance to win, you're still losing this pot 1 out of 20 times. With the sheer volume that we play as online players, we're going to see that 5% come out on the other end often.

You can ask any poker player what his or her last bad beat was, and over 90% of the time, they can produce the story like the hand just happened. However, if you flip it in reverse, they're a lot less likely to tell you when a key hand held up, especially the details of that hand. A perfect example is the hand I posted on "What It's Like To Run Good". When I was explaining the hand to FilthyMcNasty, I completely messed up the flop in the story, and the river was insignificant at the time.

Although, had I come out on the wrong end, I'd probably ignore the fact that I limped, he called, and hit the flop better than I did. I'd tell him the guy was a complete donkey, and that he jammed it in bad, and I failed to get luckier than he.

If you look at some of the top online pros, their ITM (In The Money) ranges from 14-17%. FOURTEEN to SEVENTEEN percent of the time, they make it in the money of the tournaments they play. There is a great saying in baseball, if you hit the ball 3 out of 10 times you appear at the plate, you're almost a legend, and it's still a failing grade. In poker, that saying is even more harsh. Imagine playing 100 MTT Tournaments, and only cashing in 17 of them, and still having great success.

How do they do it? Simple... they play a huge volume of tournaments. In the short run, variance can crack aces, cause set over set, flush over flush, and other various issues. Over the long run, the player with the most skill will rise to the top in the game.

It takes time, it takes dedication, the will to improve, and most importantly, the bankroll management to make it through the rough patches, and profit during the hot streaks.

Keep this in your mind, and someday when you run into a bad run, just know that someday, the variance will end.

-Strifer

[SILKY JOHNSON]

 

Originally Posted by ITM_247

can I get 4 hours for the "october, 2006" price??? My birthday is in october :D

-itm

such inflation!

[kevin070]

Busting out with the best hand is not unusual. You also were probably involved in a number of these hands where you were the favorite and won.

Not cashing in 20 or 30 straight mtts is not unusual. Everyone has cold streaks. You need to be able to handle losing over 99% of the time in poker mtts. You can't win everytime. Not everyone can handle that mentally. You need to ask yourself if you can. If you can't then playing mtts may not be for you. I won't say poker because there is also sngs and ring games that you may be able to handle.

[Avery01]

I'm feeling you, bro. I've been on a HORRID streak, lately. And if I don't get a bad beat, I end up making a stupid mistake. Mistakes are huge killers when you're running as bad as you and I have been. I have been thinking about keeping track like you've done, but I'm afraid of the results. And it hasn't just been MTT's for me, it's been SnG's as well. I'm getting killed by bad beats or my own stupid mistakes. I need to straighten up and fly right and work on getting rid of these leaks in my game, cause they sure as hell aren't helping when I get hit with beat after beat. Luckily, I still have a day job (and will for a LONG time at this rate).

As for the guy that said some people believe if you think about good things happening, they will... I say, "how the hell are cards suppose to come if you think good thoughts?" that's laughable that people believe that. However, I will say that if you think positive, then maybe you will make better decisions, not that decisions will help when you get bad beats. However, those better decisions may result in you having more chips than you normally would at that point, so the beat doesn't bust you. I need to pay attention to that advice. LOL

[Hellion]

I have been wondering lately, with luck being such a massive factor in poker, I really can't get my head around how consistantly some guys top 3 it? It's absolutley mind blowing to me. I'll be honest, It does make me <SPAN lang=EN>Suspicious sometimes, coz I mean it's probably in the site's interests to have a select few guys consistanly at the top, for other players to look up to, and aspire to emulate etc. It surprises me also that it doesn't change a great deal at the top, I mean you'd think every year there'd be an influx of fresh new talent, but nothing seems to really change on a big scale.

p.s Yes, I have run like a fatty during an a<SPAN lang=EN>sthma fit lately, and I may be a little more than jealous of those who both play and run well in equal measures, but you know what......... fuck all of em!

gg

</SPAN></SPAN>

[DaPretzel]

I'm wondering if your actual playing style has anything do with it. Some players tend to accumulate chips bit by bit, collecting many small pots and relying less on the "double up" to build their stack. Other players tend to remain pretty constant until they hit their double up hands, in which they usually get their money in good. So with these tighter players, their money gets in good most of the time, but since they're not chipping up as much in between these double-ups, they usually find themselves getting put all in instead of putting others all in. And like others have said, you can get your money in good every time, but the more of these encounters you have the more likely you are to get sucked out on somewhere along the way. When the hands are holding up then this style is very solid and stable, but when the negative variance kicks in, it gets reeeeeeally frustrating.

Long story short, the fewer times your tournament life is on the line, the fewer times you'll need your good hands to hold up. If you keep chipping up in between your huge hands, you'll have a big enough stack to withstand these blows.

(Obviously, i don't know what your playing style is; I'm just guessing that you're fairly tight and offering a theory based on that. If not just disregard this)