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Odds to win 7,000 player event?

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  1. OMAHA_BURKE OMAHA_BURKE is offline wants to see a flatter payout structure in MTTs

    Omaha, NE
    United States

    Posts: 75
    Joined: Oct 05

    Dec 3rd, 2010 (12/3/2010 9:59pm)

    If you could look at the poker resume of each player in a a typical WSOP main event with 7000 players, how many players do you think you need to pick to have an even money chance of picking the eventual winner? Note random picks would require 3500 selections.

    Also, if you could only pick 100 players, what odds do you think you would need for it to be a fair bet? Note random picks would require odds of 70 for 1.

    Finally, a quiz with a known answer. If you were 4 times as likely to win the main event vs. an average player (ie one who would win only 1 in 7000, vs your winning it 1 in 7000/4= 1750) your ROI would be 117%.

    1) How often could you expect to finish in the top 18? A) once every 97 years? B) once every 59 years C) once every 311 years or D) once every 159 years (note your ROI falls to -5% if you never finish in the top 18 as a 4x average player)

    2) How often could you expect to finish in the top 36? A) once every 48 years? B) once every 31 years C) once every 89 years or D) once every 113 years (note your ROI falls to -16% if you never finish in the top 36 as a 4x average player)
    Edited By: OMAHA_BURKE Dec 3rd, 2010 at 10:20 PM
  2. mdshack14 mdshack14 is offline

    Auburn Hills, MI
    United States

    Posts: 5,646
    Joined: May 07

    Dec 3rd, 2010 (12/3/2010 10:06pm) in reply to OMAHA_BURKE

    Well since I don't plan on living to be 130 years old I'm gonna go with b on question 1.
     
  3. RazorFish00 RazorFish00 is offline

    Moose Jaw
    Canada

    Posts: 507
    Joined: Sep 09

    Dec 3rd, 2010 (12/3/2010 10:14pm) in reply to OMAHA_BURKE

    Depends on if the planets have aligned and your name is Jamie Gold
  4. rayfox111 rayfox111 is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 833
    Joined: Mar 09

    Dec 3rd, 2010 (12/3/2010 10:18pm) in reply to mdshack14

    Dont think your going to get many serious answers Omaha.
    You could try making the questions a little more difficult!
  5. nickj7777 nickj7777 is offline

    Posts: 40
    Joined: Jun 09

    Dec 3rd, 2010 (12/3/2010 10:18pm) in reply to rayfox111

    you have to much time on your hands if you care.
  6. OMAHA_BURKE OMAHA_BURKE is offline wants to see a flatter payout structure in MTTs

    Omaha, NE
    United States

    Posts: 75
    Joined: Oct 05

    Dec 3rd, 2010 (12/3/2010 10:25pm) in reply to rayfox111

     
    Originally Posted by rayfox111 View Post

    Dont think your going to get many serious answers Omaha.
    You could try making the questions a little more difficult!

    WOW, you are right rayfox. I didnt think I would get such sophomoric replies. I will spare any more nonsense by noting the answer to 1) is D- 159 years to finish in top 18
    and 2) is C-89 years to finish in top 36.

    as for the odds question, I would think around 875 picks to have even money odds, and if you pick just 100, you would need odds of about 16.5-1
    Edited By: OMAHA_BURKE Dec 3rd, 2010 at 10:25 PM
    Thread Starter
  7. zander zander is offline anomaly in his crotch

    Malaysia

    Posts: 6,036
    Joined: Dec 06

    Dec 3rd, 2010 (12/3/2010 10:43pm) in reply to OMAHA_BURKE

    We get it, the world would be better if 6,000 of the 7,000 players got paid and first was only twice as much as 6,000th...
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