I never play Omaha8 so I'm trying to figure out this hand. In retrospect I don't think I played it very well, but I need someone who actually understands this game to tell me if this is just one of those hands that play themselves, or if I screwed the pooch and messed it up. Is badkittyx3's call a good one?

Thanks.

pokerstars Game #12750169104: Tournament #64706999, $3.00+$0.40 Omaha Hi/Lo Pot Limit - Level VII (150/300) - 2007/10/20 - 22:50:00 (ET)
Table '64706999 1' 10-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 4: care4bear42 (3942 in chips)
Seat 6: badkittyX3 (5318 in chips)
Seat 7: platypus22 (4291 in chips)
Seat 8: dbcoyotes (1449 in chips)
dbcoyotes: posts small blind 150
care4bear42: posts big blind 300
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to platypus22 [Kd Ac Ad Js]
badkittyX3: raises 750 to 1050
platypus22: raises 2550 to 3600
dbcoyotes: folds
care4bear42: folds
badkittyX3: raises 1718 to 5318 and is all-in
platypus22: calls 691 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [2d 9h Qh]
*** TURN *** [2d 9h Qh] [4h]
*** RIVER *** [2d 9h Qh 4h] [Qd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
badkittyX3: shows [6s 2h 4s Ah] (HI: a flush, Ace high)
platypus22: shows [Kd Ac Ad Js] (HI: two pair, Aces and Queens)
badkittyX3 collected 9032 from pot
No low hand qualified
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 9032 | Rake 0
Board [2d 9h Qh 4h Qd]
Seat 4: care4bear42 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: badkittyX3 showed [6s 2h 4s Ah] and won (9032) with HI: a flush, Ace high
Seat 7: platypus22 (button) showed [Kd Ac Ad Js] and lost with HI: two pair, Aces and Queens
Seat 8: dbcoyotes (small blind) folded before Flop

You both had great hands 4 handed, shit happens, can't fault either one of you.

From my very limited Omaha8 experience, Kitty's call is loose but not horrible....she's double suited with high and low possibilities....you are pushing this with only the high end covered....omaha8 is a tough game....i don't play it much and that is why I say "gank owns" when anybody rips his game...to win a wsop bracelet in this game is CRAZY!!!!

Good point. Thanks for the input!

***WARNING! SOME OF THE ABOVE ADVICE IS VERY BAD!!!***

Reraise is a terrible play on the bubble of a SNG!

DO NOT RERAISE!!!

Should you fold, your equity in this SNG is $8.56:

<TABLE border=1><TBODY><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Chips</TH><TH>Prob 1st</TH><TH>Prob 2nd</TH><TH>Prob 3rd</TH><TH>Equity</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>You
</TD><TD>4291</TD><TD>0.2861</TD><TD>0.2897</TD><TD>0.2777</TD><TD>$8.56</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Player 2
</TD><TD>5318</TD><TD>0.3545</TD><TD>0.3064</TD><TD>0.2373</TD><TD>$9.50</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Player 3
</TD><TD>3942</TD><TD>0.2628</TD><TD>0.2777</TD><TD>0.2918</TD><TD>$8.19</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Player 4
</TD><TD>1449</TD><TD>0.0966</TD><TD>0.1262</TD><TD>0.1931</TD><TD>$3.74</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Obviously, should you reraise and go on to lose the hand, your equity is zero.

Should you go on to win the hand, your equity becomes $11.95:

<TABLE border=1><TBODY><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Chips</TH><TH>Prob 1st</TH><TH>Prob 2nd</TH><TH>Prob 3rd</TH><TH>Equity</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>You
</TD><TD>8582</TD><TD>0.5704</TD><TD>0.3071</TD><TD>0.1044</TD><TD>$11.95</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Player 2
</TD><TD>1073</TD><TD>0.0713</TD><TD>0.1276</TD><TD>0.2814</TD><TD>$3.91</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD>Player 3
</TD><TD>3942</TD><TD>0.2620</TD><TD>0.3959</TD><TD>0.2543</TD><TD>$9.02</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>Player 4
</TD><TD>1449</TD><TD>0.0963</TD><TD>0.1694</TD><TD>0.3600</TD><TD>$5.13</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Therefore, you are risking $8.56 to win $3.39. In order to make up for that difference, you must win this hand, should you reraise, 71.63% of the time!!!

You should not even raise the BEST POSSIBLE starting hand, AA23 double suited here (unless you were POSITIVE he was raising any 4 cards, and even then, it's quite a marginal shove that gains you a very small bit of equity!!!):

<TABLE class=pptSimTable cellSpacing=0 border=1><TBODY><TR class=pptSimLabels><TH>Hand</TH><TH>Pot equity</TH><TH>Scoops</TH><TH>Wins Hi</TH><TH>Ties Hi</TH><TH>Wins Lo</TH><TH>Ties Lo</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=pptSpec>AdAs2d3s</TD><TD class=pptEV>72.54%</TD><TD class=pptScoops>368,728</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>400,772</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>3,612</TD><TD class=pptWinsLo>264,360</TD><TD class=pptTiesLo>12,711</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD class=pptSpec>****</TD><TD class=pptEV>27.46%</TD><TD class=pptScoops>102,215</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>195,616</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>3,612</TD><TD class=pptWinsLo>29,669</TD><TD class=pptTiesLo>12,711</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Your actual hand vs any 4:

<TABLE class=pptSimTable cellSpacing=0 border=1><TBODY><TR class=pptSimLabels><TH>Hand</TH><TH>Pot equity</TH><TH>Scoops</TH><TH>Wins Hi</TH><TH>Ties Hi</TH><TH>Wins Lo</TH><TH>Ties Lo</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=pptSpec>KdAcAdJs</TD><TD class=pptEV>55.03%</TD><TD class=pptScoops>261,276</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>395,257</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>4,312</TD><TD class=pptWinsLo>0</TD><TD class=pptTiesLo>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD class=pptSpec>****</TD><TD class=pptEV>44.97%</TD><TD class=pptScoops>200,431</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>200,431</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>4,312</TD><TD class=pptWinsLo>215,270</TD><TD class=pptTiesLo>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Your actual hand vs. top 50% of hands:

<TABLE class=pptSimTable cellSpacing=0 border=1><TBODY><TR class=pptSimLabels><TH>Hand</TH><TH>Pot equity</TH><TH>Scoops</TH><TH>Wins Hi</TH><TH>Ties Hi</TH><TH>Wins Lo</TH><TH>Ties Lo</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=pptSpec>KdAcAdJs</TD><TD class=pptEV>52.55%</TD><TD class=pptScoops>234,499</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>389,587</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>7,488</TD><TD class=pptWinsLo>0</TD><TD class=pptTiesLo>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD class=pptSpec>50%</TD><TD class=pptEV>47.45%</TD><TD class=pptScoops>202,925</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>202,925</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>7,488</TD><TD class=pptWinsLo>260,218</TD><TD class=pptTiesLo>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
...as you can see, you are in deep shit vs. the 71.63% you need. INSTAMUCK this hand!!!!! Calling wouldn't be horrible, but I dislike it here.

For more information check out this article:
Advanced SNG bubble play using ICM

Badkitty's call was ok.

Hope that helps!

Jen

This is a $3.40 SNG, so the chances of Kitty folding are equivilent to the chances of Frosty the Snowman taking an August stroll thru downtown hell and walking away intact!

Reraise is bad here, see my post below for why.

Careful, even reraising AA23 double suited here is a bad play on a SNG bubble. I would call and see what the flop brought. See my post above for why.

Jennifear....as usual you provide the super well thought out answer. Thanks. That makes perfect sense!

NP Platy!

I was afraid that many others didn't either see that it was a SNG bubble, or that they weren't aware of the cEV/$EV implications, or possibly both.

Glad I could help!

Jen

"If he's folding aces to every raise of the big stack then he's going to get chipped away so far down as to make winning this very difficult"

Winning is not his priority here. It's cashing. That's the reasoning behind the math. Reraise is very terrible here, because if you fold, your chances of cashing are very high.

"Platypus' hand is a favorite against any other hand, save AA-low-x, and is also very difficult to play on the flop in this situation."

This is not true at all. In Omaha 8/b, aces are a good hand, but not a premium one. Platy's hand is a marginal favorite at best over most hands in the raiser's range. As seen in my post, platy's hand is about 53-47 over a range as wide of 50% of all hands.

Taking a stand here is about a $4 error, which is a critical mistake in a $3.40 SNG.

Folding pre is the most profitable option, and it's not close.

To put things in NLH terms, reraising here is akin to calling an allin with A-10 on the bubble with the same stacks.

This formula was made for games where almost all hands have one winner. There needs to be some sort of adjustment to the tables here for PLO8. Most hands chop and in your tables you are only using pot equity. You are saying that he only survives about 52.55% which is not true. He actually survives about 66%. It has to make a difference in the computations. I am not exactly sure how.

Matty and myself have played a ton of these games and there is no way that hand can be folded. If there is any game out there that you can come back from a micro stack of say 30 chips and blinds at 200/400, it is this one. If you are folding this hand you will end up in more trouble bubbling because the short stack may make it through the blinds a couple of times or more.

Trust me doc, there's no way you can do anything BUT fold that hand. I used pot equity for simplicity sake. You are right that his survival rate is higher, but 66% won't cut it here either. If you'd like to do the math regarding survival rates as opposed to pot equity, you'll find he needs to survive more than 80% of the time to make this call.

This is the bubble! It doesn't matter if it's NLH or PLO8B, the fact remains that second place needs to play UBER-tight against the big stack's shove. The only player who will benefit substantially from this confrontation is shorty.

Note: This is BARELY a shove in a game where cEV is the only factor. You have a good hand, against a raise, with two players left to act. You have about 53% pot equity against his range. That makes it a small favorite!

Using your math, if you die 1/3 of the time, you lose $8.56 in equity 1/3 of the time. Even if you outright won the whole pot EVERY OTHER time you survived (which you wouldn't), and won $3.39 2/3 of the time, you don't make up for that.

I reiterate, this is not a close decision. This is a clear fold.

Hiya DJam21 :)

Always hate playing with ya on FTP (take that as a compliment!)

If that's your line of thinking, please look over this thread, you won't regret it!

http://www.pocketfives.com/1396BB6C-...B958B48BE.aspx

Jennifear, all your ICM analysis is of course correct.

HOWEVER, I don't agree when you say that badkittyX3 will never ever fold to a reraise here. Come on! If you have 5300 and somebody re-pots it, essentially putting themselves all in for about 75% of your stack, on the sng bubble with a 5bb stack around, you gotta have something good to call!

BUT, even with let's say 50% folds from badkittyX3, it might be -$EV, so folding might still be correct...

I just don't think it's good to say somebody never folds to a reraise, even in a $3 game. He should be just afraid of bubbling as you. What if he raised "any four" just to steal some blinds, trying to bully the table?

.mbardsen

Read the above post and it will make more sense.