Once again, you write a masterpiece. What I like about your articles is that you tell it like it is, and you have an uncanny ability to do something that very few players do, but is necessary to solve poker problems:

You somehow self-examine without a bias. It is SO hard to do this. So many players assume that they are better than they are. You just step back and examine everything as if you were an outsider, scrutinizing yourself without fear or favor. Incredible.

So the problem is that you are not winning at poker. Let's look at the solution to this by examining how to win at poker....

How to win at poker: Play against people who are worse than you by a greater margin than the rake.

^^It's that simple really. Yet so many players don't do this. Fox has written about the Peter Principle in Poker, a theory, in summation, that states that many players play exactly one level above where they should be playing. This also applies to multitabling. Many players play one too many tables than they can comfotably manage. Other than a lack of discipline, or a misunderstanding of how to manage your bankroll, this is the most common reason that people don't win.

With thirty years of experience, I seriously doubt that you are running into problems that are discipline related, bankroll management related, or the Peter Principle. If you did, you would have been out of this game long ago, after failing dismally. There is no way you would last thirty years with these problems. Noone runs that good!

So you ask if you suck. Doubt it. People don't teach poker, have several successful students, and then find out later that they suck. Not possible. Yet I believe that you did the right thing by checking to see if you had developed leaks by watching videos, being open-minded, and having others that you respect examine your play. That's very intelligent, and you even said that you were able to try to incorporate new ideas. That's great! This hard work will undoubtably pay off for you for years to come.

Of course all losing streaks are some combination of skill/variance, as nobody's perfect, and luck varies.

My best guess is that your streak is more variance than anything. I hope I'm right, because it's great having you around, and I know for a fact you are too smart to continue if you don't turn it around.

Don't forget that sometimes when you lose money, you still made money.

I have a sister-in-law that used to manage a retail chain store that lost $20,000 over the course of a year. Her company rewarded her not by firing her, but rather with the proud title of Financial Manager of the Year! The reason: Her store was projected to lose $80,000 that year. She kept expenses down by cutting costs, not wasting payroll, and had imaginative promotions in her store that caused sales to increase. She "made" $60,000 that year. What I am saying to you Seal, is that it's quite possible that the way you played caused you, this year, to lose significantly less than you "should have", and you may be managing yourself like a champion, just like my sister-in-law managed her store.

Despite that this is my best guess, I felt the urge to try to help because you have been an asset to this community since day one. You have shown respect to us, and tried to help us with your wisdom.

I know that you are too smart to blindly blame this on variance, even if variance is indeed the cause of your bad year. Any good player knows to consistantly re-examine their game, and try to find a non-variance reason for failure. You are obviously no exception, and your article supported that fact.

I noticed one thing missing from your article that stood out to me like a sore thumb. To me, it's the only possible non-variance problem that you may be dealing with. Like you taught us to, I am going to follow your lead and assume it is not variance until I know otherwise.

Is the problem possibly that you don't suck BUT ALSO your opponent's don't suck enough? That, while you have improved, you have not improved as much as your opponents?

Rather than looking at your on-the-felt game...is the problem possibly one that is not related to your skill, but rather a narrowing of the gap in skill between you and the others you are playing?

Again,

How to win at poker: Play against people who are worse than you by a greater margin than the rake.

The rake is a beast in poker. Some people underestimate this factor, especially lifetime winners. To actually accomplish the above, simply being better than them just isn't enough to get the job done. There has to be a tremendous difference in skill between you and your opponents.

I don't know what levels you play, or the quality of your opposition. Heck, I have watched less than 100 hands of yours (it was during a rail call that I watched you play). You may have already looked at this potential problem. I'm throwing this out there because it wasn't addressed in your article, and it's the only possible non-variance issue that I could think of. If it's not this, then chalk it up to variance and move on, in my opinion.

I would have sent this to you as a PM, but I hope that others will benefit from reading this, and it might solve someone else's problem if it doesn't help to solve yours.

Whatever it is, good luck with your game, Seal. I have the greatest respect for you. I hope you enjoy your break, I am glad you have your priorities straight, and I'm glad you remind us frequently that we should live balanced lives.

I hope that all of the young talent out there is wise enough to take advantage of your experience by reading your stuff and taking it in.

Best wishes,

Jennifear

Wow, nice of you to post Jenn and well written.

jennifear should teach a course on how to post on p5s. amazing insight and always positive!

 

Originally Posted by Binksy

^Agreed. A masterpiece right there. And Seal, you taught me to how to play Razz in some video:) TYVM...

link to said video???? i need help :(

Can't really argue with a guy who sang Kiss From A Rose and married Heidi Klum

This is the kind of insight we need in front page articles. Thanks for putting this up Jennifear. I always enjoy your posts. You always make things clear and informative and you have wonderful insights and information that many do not come across on their own. Thanks again.

Another great post from Jen... Suprise... Suprise...

Seal,

My only advice to you would be to move towards game with reduced variance. Or, alternatively for 1 week go back and play the $5 games you started at. I do this all the time as a way to boost my confidence and learn how to better exploit bad players (also to stop myself from donkeying off my bankroll when drunk). I know this may sound like a bit of a waste of time, but maybe if you can disconnect yourself from the monetary aspects of poker even just a little you might just get your edge back.

Jennifear,

You're the bomb.

seal jennifear

Its the doom switch, even a micro-donk like me is up on every site except stars.

Great articles, both of you... and as a Jennifear student I will highly recommend her to you, Seal. :)

Fantastic article even better rebuttle good job to the both of you

 

Originally Posted by seal

tyvm Jennifear - much love and respect as always.

My point in writing the article was simply to state my situation and also what I have done to rectify it. As for my own opinion of my poker, well, over the years I am up enough to make my losses at pokerstars insignificant, so I am not about to just quit. But it does bother me that, if I never played at stars, I would likely be up at least another 25-50k.

Maybe it's time for the coach to get a coach. I hear you do some good work ;o)

I find that the sheer number of grinders on Stars is staggering!

The door is wide open of course. I'd of course love to have you as a student. If you ever wanted to take up Turbo SNGs, I could most likely offer enough advice to make your time with me worth it.

I fear that what I could do for you in MTTs/cash is extremely limited. You are probably already too good, and I would recommend a more experienced, specialized coach in either case. I'd probably learn more from coaching you than you would from my instruction. I am likely not right for you in this area. Wish I was because I am a huge Seal fan.

Sometimes I get asked why I offer advice on a public forum that makes the game "tougher" to beat. The answer I give is that I learned a lot from this forum, became a better player, and I am giving back by paying it forward. Among others, you are one of the ones I learned from.

Here's what I got out of your article, I'll paraphrase for those that enjoy "cliff notes":

- When things aren't going well, and variance is probably to blame, assume the problem is not variance-related anyway, and do what is necessary to correct the problem. In addition, don't let it ruin your life. Keep a balanced life, and take breaks when necessary.

That's a message well worth reading. That attitude is surely contributing to why you are ahead of the game 96.7% (29/30) of the years that you have been playing it. Thank you for all that you do.

"I find that the sheer number of grinders on stars is staggering!"

True that Jen, but most of them still have massive holes in there games.

Including me.