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Open question to N8. Beginner's luck?

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  1. natorwag natorwag is offline

    Posts: 91
    Joined: Dec 05

    Dec 30th, 2005 (12/30/2005 10:02pm)

    I know this question will set off a firestorm, but here goes…

    Anecdotally, I have reached the point where I will not enter a pot vs. a player who shows five or fewer cashes.<SPAN> </SPAN>If they are not even in the db, forget it, I am gone.

    Could you please cut the data in some statistically meaningful way to show PS tournament ROI of new accounts vs. old accounts?

    Statisticians could propose a better measure, but for simplicity’s sake:

    Let us take the $11r.<SPAN> </SPAN>Bingo central.<SPAN> </SPAN>Of 2005 winners of this tournament, how many show fewer than, say, 7 cashes?<SPAN> </SPAN>Perhaps you could divide this number by the total number of $11r tournaments.

    Of these winners, how many have gone on to win another tournament, say, 50 cashes down the line?
  2. TomHimself TomHimself is offline

    Riverhead, NY
    United States

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    Joined: Jul 05

    Dec 30th, 2005 (12/30/2005 10:06pm) in reply to natorwag

    i dont understand, you can't handle the players with no cashes but will play pots with the people with many cashes?

    sounds pretty stupid to me
  3. natorwag natorwag is offline

    Posts: 91
    Joined: Dec 05

    Dec 30th, 2005 (12/30/2005 10:11pm) in reply to TomHimself

    Sounds stupid, of course. Try it with your AA against an even or shorter stack, after the re-buy period is finished.
    Thread Starter
  4. Sooted57 Sooted57 is offline

    Lincoln, NE
    United States

    Posts: 1,338
    Joined: Jul 05

    Dec 30th, 2005 (12/30/2005 10:21pm) in reply to TomHimself

    I don't get it either. While I agree that the DB is a good reference for determining your opponents abilities, it is far from being any kind of conclusive entity that indicates how "good" any given player is.

    Many players might not play a majority of their time on stars... and/or even much of their time outside of sng/cash games. The database only shows MTT records. It boggles my mind when I see two people arguing online... both seem to have valid points, and one of them suddenly brings up the other persons lack of success (on the pokerdb.com). I can't help but think that the person taking such a low road is a completely ignorant fool (about 90% of the time).

    You want to play pots with people that have shown good MTT success (on pokerstars), but if they don't have an extensive resume...which indicates that you think they aren't as skilled, you would rather just not play pots with them? This makes no sense.

    In any given 10r tourney... when you look up the other 8 players on your starting table... how many of them have a respectable "record"? Maybe 2-3?
  5. AceRunner AceRunner is offline

    Thailand

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    Joined: Nov 05

    Dec 30th, 2005 (12/30/2005 10:22pm) in reply to natorwag

    this sounds like a post where you are so good, except you struggle against lucksack donkeys.

    :(

    If you do don't like them please send some more to PokerRoom. I love playing with them, even when they make me angry.
  6. natorwag natorwag is offline

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    Joined: Dec 05

    Dec 30th, 2005 (12/30/2005 10:29pm) in reply to Sooted57

    My friends and I have been online for years. We have noticed a trend. If we are wrong, we are wrong.

    I will spell it out. New accounts are more successful on pokerstars, in our opinion.

    I am merely asking to see the data.
    Thread Starter
  7. Sooted57 Sooted57 is offline

    Lincoln, NE
    United States

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    Dec 30th, 2005 (12/30/2005 10:32pm) in reply to natorwag

    Ohhh, I forgot to mention that it's rigged for new accounts.
  8. natorwag natorwag is offline

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    Joined: Dec 05

    Dec 30th, 2005 (12/30/2005 10:35pm) in reply to Sooted57

    Umm, yes, I did not say the "R" word, but that is our thesis.
    Thread Starter
  9. Sooted57 Sooted57 is offline

    Lincoln, NE
    United States

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    Dec 30th, 2005 (12/30/2005 10:37pm) in reply to natorwag

    lol - you don't have to say it, we can all read between the lines.
  10. N 82 50 24 N 82 50 24 is offline herp derp derp

    Philadelphia, PA
    United States

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    Dec 30th, 2005 (12/30/2005 10:44pm) in reply to natorwag

    I'll look into it.
     
  11. apestyles apestyles is offline Moderator

    Vancouver
    Canada

    Posts: 5,087
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    Dec 30th, 2005 (12/30/2005 10:54pm) in reply to natorwag

    Lol @ the 45k being bingo central.

    If there is 1 single large field tourney online where strong players have had consistent high finishes it is the 45k. Johnnybax, soupie, beL0Wab0VE, wachovia, johnster, pharlap, myself, and many many others consistently final table or win that tourney. And, the reason they have such results is because there are so many horrible new players and losing players in that tournament.
     282 12 

    apestyles is an instructor at PocketFives Training . To get more of his advice and to watch his training videos, click here.

  12. natorwag natorwag is offline

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    Dec 30th, 2005 (12/30/2005 11:09pm) in reply to apestyles

    On the one hand, I agree that any re-buy is a big bankroll, buy-your-stack, ICM tournament. Skilled players (or any player) excel with a big stack. On the other hand, any given final table in this tournament clocks a PF all-in bad-beat total in excess of expectations, according to our thesis. For someone with great game who got unlucky HU in this tournament, ape, you may want to hear the results of N8's stats.
    Thread Starter
  13. TravG11 TravG11 is offline

    Tuscaloosa, AL
    United States

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    Dec 30th, 2005 (12/30/2005 11:09pm) in reply to apestyles

    I'll chime in with this:

    I played under my original ID for the better part of two years, now i didnt play full time, or even part time, i played mostly for fun. All low limits, low limit cash games, 5-10-20 SnG's, highest i'd go would be 10 bucks to play a tourney. After about a year's break from poker and pokerstars i decided to jump back into the game, and to start fresh i started a brand new account. In merely two weeks, you can check the DB if you want, i won my first ever online tourney for 2400 and finished 6th in a 20+2 tourney and 17th in another tournament. In my two prior years kicking it around from time to time on stars i had final tabled on 2 of the probably 30-40 tournaments i had entered and i FT two of the first 7 i played with my new ID

    Now i will say, my game has gotten much better, when i first started on stars i didnt know half as much as i know now, and i was in it to actually make money instead of just play for fun since i started playing again, when before like i said it was mostly for fun and to see if i could turn 100 into 10000 in a week..... but i have had tons more success with my new ID on stars
  14. apestyles apestyles is offline Moderator

    Vancouver
    Canada

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    Dec 30th, 2005 (12/30/2005 11:19pm) in reply to natorwag

    I've also won it and had many cashes before that. I'm not paranoid about beginners luck or anything of that nature. There are such an overwhelming amount of bad players in that tourney that it is only logical that bad players win it alot. I also don't agree with your strange theory of there being a higher than usual preflop-all in bad beat percentage.
    What your post really is is another creative way of saying online poker - or stars - is rigged. However, I look forward to looking at the results of n8's stats...
     282 12 
  15. ahh_snap ahh_snap is offline

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    Dec 30th, 2005 (12/30/2005 11:29pm) in reply to TravG11

    Please
    Delete
    This
    Post.

    Nothing against the person who made the post.. but ONLINE POKER (pokerstars at least) IS NOT RIGGED!!!! THERE ISN'T MORE BAD BEATS ALL IN PREFLOP!!!!! Ok I'm done.

    EDIT: OBV the account you play on matters a ton though.. Look at Bigslick789. After having great success on that account, the guy was dumb enough to change accounts to Ozzy 87.. Boy was that a mistake for him!
  16. misterizx misterizx is offline

    Woodlake, CA
    United States

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    Dec 30th, 2005 (12/30/2005 11:30pm) in reply to TravG11

    I play micro limit tourneys. I also look at the DBs of players at final tables or at my table. It is amazing how many people win the very first tourney they cash. If they dont win they seem to at least final table their first tourney. I know for every one that does this there are 1000 that dont. I still find it odd how many DBs have a win as their first cash.
  17. natorwag natorwag is offline

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    Dec 30th, 2005 (12/30/2005 11:44pm) in reply to apestyles

    Yes, ape. You are of course correct about dead money. Dead money is everywhere, in obscene quantities, in poker.

    Your win was 3 months after your first cash on your account. Early on, in our view. The basic proposition is that winning on PS, tournament or cash, becomes very difficult after x number of hands seen.

    Anecdotally, for a year, I pulled every $ out of every cash table I played. My friends did the same. Suddenly cash was very difficult. We went to HU. Crushed it, for about a month or two. After that, it was a no-go.
    Thread Starter
  18. apestyles apestyles is offline Moderator

    Vancouver
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    Dec 30th, 2005 (12/30/2005 11:47pm) in reply to natorwag

    Ok but... I'm still winning and its been a while...
    Not winning quite like the other month but still winning. And I've cashed out quite a bit as well. I guess I just haven't spent enough time playing on stars to get the eventual pokerstars curse.
     282 12 
  19. natorwag natorwag is offline

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    Dec 30th, 2005 (12/30/2005 11:50pm) in reply to ahh_snap

    Actually, snap, you kind of played right into this. Bigslick789 was ranked 28th (?) before he suddenly showed up as Ozzy87. Within a week, he was 20th. Two weeks later, 14th. In the same time period, I_Love_JD won the TLB in the first week on her account.
    Thread Starter
  20. ahh_snap ahh_snap is offline

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    Dec 30th, 2005 (12/30/2005 11:56pm) in reply to misterizx

    I was being sarcastic man.. what I was trying to point out is that the account doesn't matter its the SKILL of the person playing on the account.
  21. N 82 50 24 N 82 50 24 is offline herp derp derp

    Philadelphia, PA
    United States

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    Dec 31st, 2005 (12/31/2005 12:06am) in reply to natorwag

    can you tell me exactly what you're looking for?

    i don't really understand the point of the original post.
     
  22. natorwag natorwag is offline

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    Dec 31st, 2005 (12/31/2005 12:25am) in reply to N 82 50 24

    N8,

    I wish to know the number of PS $11r players who have won this tournament with 7 or fewer cashes divided by the total number of $11r tournaments. This is my proposed measure for new accounts' vs. old accounts' success on PS. I am welcome to other suggestions for measures of achievement.

    To further measure a player's ability, I wish to know how these winning players have fared after their win. Let's say, have they won anything in their next 50 cashes?

    Thanks.
    Thread Starter
  23. Staple Gun Staple Gun is offline

    Lake Orion, MI
    United States

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    Dec 31st, 2005 (12/31/2005 12:34am) in reply to natorwag

    If you truly wanted to know about your "thesis" what you need is the average time each account that won the $11r has been opened, compared to the average time each account that had entered the tourney had been opened. I dont know how you would go about aquiring this information, i'm assuming its basically impossible since I doubt stars would give you that info. But my point is your asking for the wrong information, which I think would only be confusing or misleading, and not relevant to your "thesis" (which basically says omg stars is rigged for noobz!)
  24. N 82 50 24 N 82 50 24 is offline herp derp derp

    Philadelphia, PA
    United States

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    Dec 31st, 2005 (12/31/2005 1:40am) in reply to natorwag

    These are the last couple thousand players to win an 11r. You can do the rest of the work looking them up id by id ... it would be a pain to write a script to go beyond this and I don't think it's going to prove anything, so I don't want to waste my time (this took 2 minutes already, that's enough).

    73822
    44776
    97489
    3442
    25947
    657
    4886
    42561
    66258
    129469
    73822
    6630
    115966
    26560
    89844
    14020
    13002
    20072
    2654
    663
    1711
    114089
    670
    50379
    105300
    112538
    1851
    96548
    261819
    11665
    16913
    169448
    78170
    789
    9414
    18416
    14020
    2810
    75855
    1901
    6054
    17629
    32641
    120143
    118222
    2639
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    184730
    31651
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    134407
    36686
    1697
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    228455
    17100
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    5785
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    3214
    116784
    196928
    110465
    60593
    23733
    91882
    3058
    12994
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    26994
    11395
    28982
    2092
    47817
    16947
    11510
    76359
    16913
    39985
    128486
    32986
    3909
    48652
    2092
    41671
    48383
    174978
    83540
    14922
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    80868
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    1742
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    8017
    51
    76993
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    99878
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    13009
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    1851
    13688
    16893
    5947
    18900
    23603
    359
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    17010
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    37302
    117659
    105433
    46318
    27761
    175168
    95183
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    11333
    85
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    48046
    93046
    13023
    9265
    643
    151447
    134603
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    1320
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    18421
    16997
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    57751
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    417
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    145608
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    1082
    161477
    2704
    5947
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    162015
    154
    3569
    188257
    8658
    21779
    81613
    39304
    23603
    1652
    1956
    155249
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    25775
    163865
    678
    3252
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    106011
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    18421
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    18752
    41405
    193744
    55581
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    99878
    85766
    19595
    4391
    342
    37879
    13864
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    13811
    1073
    65780
    156640
    11356
    6377
    1905
    11484
    131517
    165951
    681
    145250
    42758
    1412
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    80828
    85953
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    21
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    21
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    3585
    10
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    562
    66057
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    1073
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    417
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    21906
    38142
    288
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    111
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    121
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    70288
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    42415
    9473
    8221
    53318
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    5073
    11316
    415
    19693
    126750
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    1804
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    407
    3179
    1031
    1742
    17102
    25705
    25953
    64784
    47903
    34024
    27608
    26117
    116517
    42241
    83413
    2781
    46268
    9473
    13002
    9522
    6278
    37997
    13692
    79096
    4971
    13805
    27312
    1767
    82956
    18455
    4983
    34910
    70125
    95337
    122544
    58792
    9433
    29897
    9587
    16261
    23025
    90863
    28358
    120343
    75855
    56566
    38144
    514
    79364
    42
    23657
    14003
    23879
    99767
    148492
    11567
    265
    1613
    66816
    1633
    4983
    6558
    70745
    1498
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    17108
    56490
    29886
    13699
    31060
    2849
    84338
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    44166
    31587
    1975
    4978
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    4985
    137575
    61199
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    82944
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    32251
    13728
    23594
    3675
    1613
    13925
    25547
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    22944
    31216
    1701
    73822
    10325
    30817
    67492
    6028
    66177
    1158
    35407
    43598
    9572
    82
    61170
    66377
    53315
    58277
    5870
    69351
    12770
    102022
    1073
    79520
    89756
    496
    13835
    127713
    120057
    32626
    11395
    52222
    35855
    77830
    1847
    29980
    13728
    5792
    2921
    3528
    65731
    48655
    6638
    26484
    8805
    256
    81614
    780
    41333
    30596
    58401
    40146
    53344
    23810
    11541
    2639
    137251
    48652
    109483
    2605
    1649
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  25. helixx helixx is offline

    New York City, NY
    United States

    Posts: 443
    Joined: Sep 05

    Dec 31st, 2005 (12/31/2005 1:50am) in reply to N 82 50 24

    ALRIGHT GUYS! I DID ALL THE NUMBERS, AND IT TURNS OUT, HE'S RIGHT

    EDIT: sorry about that one, dont want to get my posting ability revoked for making such long responses.
     
  26. N 82 50 24 N 82 50 24 is offline herp derp derp

    Philadelphia, PA
    United States

    Posts: 8,601
    Joined: Jun 05

    Dec 31st, 2005 (12/31/2005 2:05am) in reply to helixx

    could you edit that down a bit do it doesn't stretch the page? thanks.
     
  27. Skoky Skoky is offline

    Bateman
    Australia

    Posts: 432
    Joined: Dec 05

    Dec 31st, 2005 (12/31/2005 2:41am) in reply to Sooted57

    now where vdid i leave that tin hat and is that a cowbell i here
    In Australia when drink driving laws first started they said that 49% of accidents were alcohol related. So it can be cocluded that it must be safer to drink and drive
  28. apestyles apestyles is offline Moderator

    Vancouver
    Canada

    Posts: 5,087
    Joined: Sep 05

    Dec 31st, 2005 (12/31/2005 3:04am) in reply to N 82 50 24

    hahaha
     282 12 
  29. natorwag natorwag is offline

    Posts: 91
    Joined: Dec 05

    Dec 31st, 2005 (12/31/2005 7:51am) in reply to N 82 50 24

    What is this data?
    Thread Starter
  30. holdmfoldm holdmfoldm is offline

    Montgomery, AL
    United States

    Posts: 543
    Joined: Aug 05

    Dec 31st, 2005 (12/31/2005 9:30am) in reply to natorwag

    Ok natorwag do this then ... Stop posting on here about this bogus theory that you and your buddies have come up with and start creating new accounts on stars.. You could come up with countless names and countless email addresses to use under hotmail and start crushing stars like no one ever has.. good luck to you sir you've got it all figured out.. BUT PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD STOP POSTING "RIGGED" IN THIS FORUM!!!!
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