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Optimal Play in Positive Variance - Theory

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  1. SpauldingSmails SpauldingSmails is offline

    Forestdale, MA
    United States

    Posts: 327
    Joined: Jun 07

    May 15th, 2008 (5/15/2008 2:43pm)

    Someone brought up the point in another thread that optimal play makes the negative swings in MTTs the mildest, and the upswings the best they can be.

    Question: Does optimal play maximize positive variance upswings?

    This is pretty theorhetical and devoid of definitions of 'optimal play'. It would also assume you are aware of being in a positive upswing, which you could obv never know. But it speaks to defining ranges and opening up vs holding your ranges/edges.

    Example: an agressive MTTer discussed being willing to flip medium/late in MTTs to develop a crushing stack. Stating if he flipped 2x he'd chop half the time, dominate once, or go busto the 4th time.

    Curious as to peoples thoughts.
  2. stevie444 stevie444 is offline

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    May 15th, 2008 (5/15/2008 3:24pm) in reply to SpauldingSmails

    Im not sure about the origional question - my guess would be no - in fact it seems intuitive that the worse you play the greater your potential upswings. Regarding the last example though...I disagree that you will chop half the time since you cant lose the first flip then win the second flip since you are busto after the first one.
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  3. SpauldingSmails SpauldingSmails is offline

    Forestdale, MA
    United States

    Posts: 327
    Joined: Jun 07

    May 15th, 2008 (5/15/2008 5:25pm) in reply to stevie444

    agreed on your point, i presume his example was flipping for 1/2 his stack twice.

    The sensible side of your rationale would tell you 'optimal play all the time' but you make a great point that worse play exposes you more to potential upswings, which is kind of what prompted me to pose the question.
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