This is kind of a tough spot.

Flop is a standard c-bet, I like your turn play and reasoning behind it. Obv if he checks back turn we're betting river for value on almost every card.

I think after he bets the turn and you flat you pretty much have to call the river. Your hand seems pretty face up as a pair between 77-QQ. He probably isn't putting you on a K here very often, so he could easily have been betting the turn with a midpair (thinking you have AQ/AJ and missed) and then turning his hand into a bluff on the river after you called the turn figuring you're folding out most pairs below kings that he loses a showdown against.

Then again, he also played the hand exactly how I would figure he'd play a set or even AJ/AQ. If he has AJ/AQ here he is almost definitely floating the flop and betting turn given your history together since ace high could easily be the best hand after you check the turn and he would definitely value bet the river with a set or Ax hand.

It's pretty tough. I probably call given your history and his aggressive image, but I could easily see arguments for folding as well.

Also, to specifically answer the questions you posed:

Any arguments to just betting the turn?
Eh, I wouldn't. As you stated, he is probably folding out midpairs on the turn that would probably call a river value bet.

What do we do if he calls the turn and then a 2 comes on the river
I'd bet only if he has seen you triple barrel bluff before. Other I'm probably check/calling. Checking may cause him to think a hand like 88 or 99 is good enough for a value bet (though he's probably folding those hands out on the turn).

what about if it's an A?
Eh, probably check/folding since you're behind almost everything that's calling you on the flop and turn at this point that he would bet river with. River is much trickier to play here if you bet the turn and get called rather than check/calling the turn.

Any arguments for simply folding river?
I personally wouldn't but I could definitely see arguments for folding river since he plays sets and AJ/AQ the same way as he'd play a midpair turned into a bluff on the river.

If you like my call, what do you think he has, and why is he betting turn AND river with that hand?
44, 55, 77, or 88, betting turn for value but turning his hand into a bluff when he bets river since he's folding out higher midpairs and possibly weak Ks that he would lose a showdown against.

One question for you though, Gags. How are you playing AQ here? Probably c-betting the flop, but how do you play the turn? If you check/call with AQ and hit the ace on the river are you leading out here or check/calling again? Just curious. If DuckU thinks you would lead the river with AJ/AQ hands then that makes me lean toward a call even more since your river check would indicate that you don't have an ace.

Love your hh posts.

Think you played it pretty much perfectly.

Obv big question is call/fold on riv. Hard for many of us to say because you are both elite players so this level of thinking really goes to place that many of us (or at least for me) are not familar with.

Guess the question I'm asking myself on the river is what % of the time is he bluffing here vs % of time he's betting for value. If you are right about his relatively tight pf range (ie he's not flatting with suited connectors/broadway cards, etc), his range is pretty much skewed toward having it.

That said the A is a great card to bluff at when checked to on the river, esp b/c he can show up with an A here based on how the hand played out. He could very well be putting you on a Kx hand and thinking he can move you off of it by this well sized river bet, esp since its never likely at all that you are showing up with two pair in this spot, making it an ever better/safer spot to make a move.

So this just brings me back to the original question, how often is he bluffing in this spot. If you think he's capable/is bluffing 1 time in 3, then I guess mathematically its a call. On the surface this seems quite plausible, yet as you've mentioned his range is more than likely comprised of hands that have you beat/got there.

Great post.

Do you really want to be opening KJo in EP?

I think you're weighing his range a little too heavily toward pocket pairs .... from a combinations perspective he's still more likely to have two cards that don't match on every street.

he stabbed the turn and had to bluff the river or got there w his ace. I like your line sir.

he has a smallish pp or an ace.

ty for the HH and ty for sharing your thoughts.

 

Originally Posted by The_Grifter

Do you really want to be opening KJo in EP?

I think you're weighing his range a little too heavily toward pocket pairs .... from a combinations perspective he's still more likely to have two cards that don't match on every street.

was wondering if someone was gonna ask about the open...i mean...i have KJo, it's like, a really good hand, and i have 85k at 800/1600...i'm folding here exactly 0% of the time


yeah, i understand that there are hella combos of unpaired cards...but what you have to consider is how many of those unpaired cards is he flatting with from these positions pre. you suggest that i not even open a hand as weak as KJo...do you really expect him to be calling with hands like 87s or QJo here? also...a lot of those unpaired hands simply fold the flop, again weighing his range towards more paired cards...

 

Originally Posted by Jason2890

This is kind of a tough spot.


I think after he bets the turn and you flat you pretty much have to call the river. Your hand seems pretty face up as a pair between 77-QQ. He probably isn't putting you on a K here very often, so he could easily have been betting the turn with a midpair (thinking you have AQ/AJ and missed) and then turning his hand into a bluff on the river after you called the turn figuring you're folding out most pairs below kings that he loses a showdown against.

ya, this is pretty much the reason i wound up calling...i thought he would think i would keep betting with a lot of Kx hands...

 

Originally Posted by Jason2890

Any arguments to just betting the turn?
Eh, I wouldn't. As you stated, he is probably folding out midpairs on the turn that would probably call a river value bet.

What do we do if he calls the turn and then a 2 comes on the river
I'd bet only if he has seen you triple barrel bluff before. Other I'm probably check/calling. Checking may cause him to think a hand like 88 or 99 is good enough for a value bet (though he's probably folding those hands out on the turn).

ya like i said, haven't played with him a ton. i'm not exactly sure what he thinks of me or my game, but i know we've played together before and at least been at the same table...we def both know each other's names.

 

Originally Posted by Jason2890

what about if it's an A?
Eh, probably check/folding since you're behind almost everything that's calling you on the flop and turn at this point that he would bet river with. River is much trickier to play here if you bet the turn and get called rather than check/calling the turn.

Any arguments for simply folding river?
I personally wouldn't but I could definitely see arguments for folding river since he plays sets and AJ/AQ the same way as he'd play a midpair turned into a bluff on the river.

If you like my call, what do you think he has, and why is he betting turn AND river with that hand?
44, 55, 77, or 88, betting turn for value but turning his hand into a bluff when he bets river since he's folding out higher midpairs and possibly weak Ks that he would lose a showdown against.

One question for you though, Gags. How are you playing AQ here? Probably c-betting the flop, but how do you play the turn? If you check/call with AQ and hit the ace on the river are you leading out here or check/calling again? Just curious. If DuckU thinks you would lead the river with AJ/AQ hands then that makes me lean toward a call even more since your river check would indicate that you don't have an ace.

if i had AQ i definitely could check/call the turn, but i think i'd be more inclined to just keep betting. now, i understood that when i checked the turn...check/calling obviously looks like i have some showdown value, and that's why i thought he thoguht i had a hand like JJ and might try to take me off of it when the A comes.
if the river was an A and i check/called the turn i would probably still check the river, leading the river kind of turns my hand face up and lets him play perfectly, so i would generally not like to do that

 

Originally Posted by Sagacious Man

What do we do if he calls the turn and then a 2 comes on the river?
Check / call is ok for both.

if we bet the turn and he calls, then a brick comes on the river...checking and calling again allows him to play 100% perfectly. we're really guessing if he has KQ or is turning a hand like TT into a bluff. also, if he called twice with a hand like TT (thinking that it's good) is he gonna randomly just bet now on the river with it? i would think that, if anytyhing, check/calling would actually be bad and we would only be beat when he bets...

i mean, someone correct me if i'm wrong, but this would be my initial instinct. i would be more inclined to just 3 barrel and at least give him the option to hero with TT, instead of playing perfectly

 

Originally Posted by Gags30

was wondering if someone was gonna ask about the open...i mean...i have KJo, it's like, a really good hand, and i have 85k at 800/1600...i'm folding here exactly 0% of the time

yeah, i understand that there are hella combos of unpaired cards...but what you have to consider is how many of those unpaired cards is he flatting with from these positions pre. you suggest that i not even open a hand as weak as KJo...do you really expect him to be calling with hands like 87s or QJo here? also...a lot of those unpaired hands simply fold the flop, again weighing his range towards more paired cards...

I know nobody really likes to talk about preflop because it can be so dependent on unique table dynamics...but, if you don't mind, what's your opening range in this spot? How much is it affected by this being your first hand at the table?

I'd be much more surprised by QJo than 87s but I don't grind MTTs for a living so you tell me. The thing is...there are only 42 midpair combos...AK/KQ/Sets = 25 combos that beat you from the flop. If he is floating you on the flop, like, ever...then the river is a fold.

In game I would probalby just go ahead and barrel the turn but your reasoning is definitely something to consider. Interesting hand.

PPs are a big portion of his range. he knows ur not a nit and raise wide pre and cbet like every time on a k high board. however, i think after u call the turn, his river bet is a value bet with at least an A. i bet the flop + turn and give up to a 3bet on turn or to a river bet there. if he's balla enough to float flop+turn then whatever, wp. thats not a too big reason for betting the turn but still a good reason: 78s has now OESD, some rando floats have now a flushdraw, a PP could get there on the river, and of course the A is a bad card for u. as played its kind of a guessing game.. does he have the A, does he bluff? i think with these positions its rather not a bluff, so i think after tanking for a long time i sigh fold river. btw, would be kinda weird for somebody to call with a PP pre and plan to bluff u already on the flop instead of just folding to an UTG raiser who cbets on a k high board. he knows that u could check turn here with a k for pot control, so his plan doesnt make rly sense if he rly has a PP below kk thats not a set (a bit of exaggerated creativity that doesnt make much sense imo). i lean towards the line i described, not saying i dont like ur line since i often take the same line. cant express my thoughts well but hope u understood.

oh and if i had to guess 3 hands id say A3s, 66 or 99

 

Originally Posted by The_Grifter

I assumed his floating range in this instance was heavily tilted toward Ax hands based on your assertion that he isn't flatting a wide range of unpaired hands. AQ/AJ and some Axs hands should constitute a decent % of his range on the river...even if he would call with air and plan to bomb the T/R there just isn't that much air he's likely to see a flop with.

ya i mean i def agree with this...but like i said before...can't he also turn a mid pair into a bluff now?

also, if he had a hand like KQ does he still value bet here or just check back?...i would think hands like JJ or even TT would have enough value to be pretty similar to a hand like KQ...so that makes his bluffing range 22, 44, 55, 77, 88, and any other random hands he decided to float (if there even are any in his range pre).....

his value range is 33 66 99 AQ and i guess AJ...anything else?...seems pretty split, if it's split here between bluffs and value, then i'm getting the right price to call his river bet. this is why i dont' understand why you said that if he floats me on this flop i ahve to fold now...

Your analysis is pretty spot on in this hand Mike. I really like your line, especially the c/call on the river. I think like you said, he is going to have AJ/AQ (that he floats on flop and tries to steal on turn w/) going for value more than he has sets...but at same time, I also think he is even MORE likely to be turning random middle pairs into bluffs here, than he is to be going for value.

I agree with your logic about checking the turn, I think any hand he floats on flop (that u are beating) + all of his mid pairs, would likely fold to a second barrel on the turn from you. I think the check is definitely standard/best.

On river, i again like your chk/call, although there are some merits to betting (since people automatically assume you r barreling the A as a good bluff card), you might get some hero calls from mid pairs. I do however think, that he is far more likely to turn those random middle pair hands into bluffs if checked to, than he is to hero call with them (thoughts?)

I am curious to see the result of this hand, I imagine he will have AJ/AQ for value more often than a set in this instance like previously mentioned, but I also expect him to show up with some middle pairs turned into a bluff(22,44,55,77, 67s,56s..etc), and maybe some total random air bluffs as well.

I think nh tho :)

If you think it's likely that he's turning a middle pair into a bluff then you clearly have equity to call. I just don't think it's a great spot for him to do that and wouldn't he be betting larger with his sets and bluffs?

 

Originally Posted by Gags30

Why don't you think he would bluff with a mid pair? Think about my perceived range...I look pretty weak and never have 2pair or a set, I basically look like JJ. Seems like a perfect spot for him to try to take me off of my range.

Also, I think ducku is good enough to not have big bet sizing tells here...his sizing with a set, AQ, or air is probably all the same

If you guys can assign ranges like that I applaud you.

 

Originally Posted by the_dean22

Your analysis is pretty spot on in this hand Mike. I really like your line, especially the c/call on the river. I think like you said, he is going to have AJ/AQ (that he floats on flop and tries to steal on turn w/) going for value more than he has sets...but at same time, I also think he is even MORE likely to be turning random middle pairs into bluffs here, than he is to be going for value.

I agree with your logic about checking the turn, I think any hand he floats on flop (that u are beating) + all of his mid pairs, would likely fold to a second barrel on the turn from you. I think the check is definitely standard/best.

On river, i again like your chk/call, although there are some merits to betting (since people automatically assume you r barreling the A as a good bluff card), you might get some hero calls from mid pairs. I do however think, that he is far more likely to turn those random middle pair hands into bluffs if checked to, than he is to hero call with them (thoughts?)

I am curious to see the result of this hand, I imagine he will have AJ/AQ for value more often than a set in this instance like previously mentioned, but I also expect him to show up with some middle pairs turned into a bluff(22,44,55,77, 67s,56s..etc), and maybe some total random air bluffs as well.

I think nh tho :)

agree with u 100%

 

Originally Posted by The_Grifter

If you guys can assign ranges like that I applaud you.

always a douche to make those comments...guess thats why you must be on level 1 thinking

I think your logic is sound and i like it vs a weaker player, but the problem is that the river is such an obvious scare card, and he knows that you know this. Is he really expecting you to fold anything on the river that you called the turn with when the perfect barrel card peels off?

 

Originally Posted by gjallen1975

-you raise from EP
-you get the world's driest flop
-you make a small CB

here...i think your small CB makes it look like you hit the flop even though it's dry. if you totally whiffed, aren't you going to put some pressure on him instead of letting him call you down or take it from you on the turn? your bet makes it look like you are betting for value or hoping to get RR. doesn't look like you are trying to take it down.

i mean...my cbet sizing is pretty standard here. i would bet this sizing with KJ, AK, AQ, AA, or a set.

 

Originally Posted by gjallen1975

then you check-call the turn....i think you would have better check-raising the turn.

why would you check/raise, what hands are you hoping for him to continue with? what if he shoves, then what are we doing?

 

Originally Posted by gjallen1975

river comes wth an A. no straights or flushes. A hits ur EP opening range much stronger than his EP flatting range. i think he knows u open wide, and u checked the turn and river. his bet size is curious. just a shade larger than a value bet. so does he want a call? if he's better than a pair, the bet size makes sense because now the board has an A and K, so you may call. if he's bluffing, what makes him think he can get you off your hand??? he needs to consider you opened from EP, and you check-called the turn, then checked the river. and what's he flatting the flop with, raising the turn with, and barreling the river with?

here is what i think. villian flopped nothing, and flatted ur flop bet to because the board was so dry to ur EP range so planned to take it on the turn. BUT...villian picked up a draw on the turn, and since u checked two straight streets and there was a lot in, he made a play on it and got caught river bluffing his missed draw.....TJs?

yeah, i open wide...but i called the turn...so i most likely have something pretty decent. like A5o isn't gonna check/call the turn here too often...

as for the bolded...how do you know what 'value bet sizing' is in this spot? you say that like a value bet is exactly 55.2147% of the pot, so anything off from that means something super important...ther'es like 40k in the pot...he bet like 23k...seems like a pretty standard bet sizing to me...

I completely agree with the line you took/logic throughout this hand. By checking the turn on a relatively safe board I think you're committing to check calling to the river as well. I agree with supra in the sense that its most definitely is a sigh call spot.