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  1. A couple random thoughts/questions:

    I agree that pairs make up a huge part of the range of hands he flats you with preflop and then gets to the turn with. I think he quite possibly flats some premium suited connectors like 78s, 910s, J10s in this spot pre but is pretty unlikely to just pure float such a dry flop against you. Given his perception of you and the stacks, it seems more likely to me that he'd three bet AQ/AJ in this spot against you preflop than he would be to three bet his small and medium pairs, which again would weight his range toward the pocket pair hands.

    I also like the turn check/call here because the board is so dry that the only card that really complicates matters a ton is an A and we get value from a lot of hands that would most likely just fold to the second barrel. We're also likely causing the misperception that our hand is mostly going to be 77-QQ when we check turn, since you would frequently be two barreling a hand like AQ/AJ here (I'd imagine, anyway).

    Just kind of brainstorming here - what do you think of leading a stupidly small % of the pot on the river, something like 9K or so. He probably doesn't think of you as a first level thinker who is going to say "oh my hand is weaker now and I don't want to have to call a big bet so I blocker bet," which may lead him to think that you're trying to induce a raise. The river card is obviously an anti-brick and your hand, up to this point, looks a lot like 77-QQ, so betting that small amount may result in him just flatting your river bet with his AQ/AJ hands because he feels like you may be trying to induce a raise with a set or actually blocker betting, and raising AQ/AJ is going to fold out only your hands that he beats anyway. If he does indeed flat those two hands, then our situation becomes a bit more clear as his raising range is narrowed to his sets or his pairs that he's going to bluffraise. Given that it is quite possible your lead will look like a trap to him, I'd think that he would be a lot less inclined to bluffraise his small and medium pairs that he floated flop/bet turn with and thus we could bet/fold river. Plus it would be awesome if we could make a totally first level, transparent blocker bet and have it actually achieve what we want it to because of complex reasons. All that said, I don't know a ton about DuckU's tendencies (except that he has a tendency to crush) so if he's just as likely to bluffraise pairs as he is to raise his sets on the river then all a 9k or so bet would really achieve is him possibly flatting his AQ/AJ hands.
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  2. For me this one is so close and player dependent but given the read that you and your opponent both view each as good aggressive players, I think I would perhaps sigh fold in this spot. For me the part of the equation that is often over looked is frequency. I am assuming that our villain will have and value bet: 33, 66, 99, AJ, AQ, ATs, A9s, KQ for 48 hands (forgive now if I made a mistake on the count). We then assuming that he could have any PP and be could be turning these into bluffs. This leaves 22, 44, 55, 77, 88, TT, JJ (not going to include QQ since it’s likely a three bet pre). This gives us 42 hands that opponent could bluff with. 42/(42+48) = 46.66%. But you quickly forgot my choice words, opponent WILL value bet and could bluff. So if villain fires 100% of the time than it’s an easy call. What if our villain does not bluff 100% with PPs? Let’s pretend that he will turn half these hands into bluffs (or is turning his PPs into a bluff 50% of the time). 21/(21+48)=30.4%.

    As Zedveron mentioned the ace is such an obvious scare card on the river. Worst of all it actually does hold merit to being a scare card in this instance. The ace likely doubles the amount of hands that villain can value bet. I also doubt that he will expect you to fold often enough for his bluff to work here. As played your line looks like you’re going to check call on the river, so I expect a good aggressive player to recognize this and value bet KJ or better (I think it’s possible that he value owns himself here with TT as played). As played I think you would have a hard time finding the fold button with 77 in this spot and a good player should recognize this and bluff less on the obvious scare card on the river. In the end you will have a good idea of how often his bluff frequency is but I think it needs to be high for this to be a call. I like the idea of a blocking bet that Nsigner mentioned. I think we still get value from all those pesky small pairs and we negate some loses that we would take from the top of his range if we check call.

    Last thought calling and being wrong will put you into a stack where you will have a difficult time 3bet folding going forward which could be trouble being in between two deep stacks at the table. Should this not also be something that you factor in at the time while making the decision?
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  3. Hey Guys,

    Looks like a fun hand. In general I think calling these bets from DuckU isn't going to show a profit. I think his range is clearly polarized on the river and he has it so much more than when he doesn't.

    DuckU's preflop range is nailed by Gags, from a LP he clearly flats much wider as he loves to tangle in position, or even OOP from the blinds. I feel the only hands that you are beating are his small pp's that he's turning into air as all his Ax holdings just got there, and I don't see him turning TT-QQ into air on the turn and river. He probably checks back TT-QQ on the turn to keep value to them and not force hands out that he will get value from . . .

    Arguments for betting turn? Reg's can call really light as double barreling is done at a high frequency. You are also in control of the hand still and don't give yourself these wtf spots. Having said that, I rarely do double barrel here . . .

    If he calls the turn and an x hits the river I'm typically pot controlling and checking out. Not happy if he hits the river hard on any card for that matter. Granted he's good enough to float 2, and turn all his value into air if he feels behind, but again in general I feel DuckU has it here more than not.

    As I have already kinda said, don't think you are ahead a lot here, and in general I think I release the river. The sort of range we have given him, it's a very small part of the range that he's going to turn into air, so the value range should be a much higher %.

    Fun hand for sure, and against a guy like him maybe it's best to go bet, bet as he's happy to call wide and we avoid these spots.
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  4.  
    Originally Posted by rdcrsn View Post

    If he calls the turn and an x hits the river I'm typically pot controlling and checking out. Not happy if he hits the river hard on any card for that matter. Granted he's good enough to float 2, and turn all his value into air if he feels behind, but again in general I feel DuckU has it here more than not.

    so if he does call twice then we check the river and he bets, we are...calling? i'm kind of confused by your wording, you say you're not happy when he bets, but you don't really say what you would do...
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  5. Fold. I do hero call sometimes, yes, but in general I'm burning money against him
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  6. The only thing I haven't seen that could in fact give him a made hand is 99 I mean if your heavily weighing him on a range of tt or jj then 99 has to be in that range also right? But I do understand what you saying about if he thinks your going to lead on the turn with any king and you didn't so it gives him an opportunity to turn a hand like tt,jj,qq into a semi bluff thinking you just decided to cbet the flop oop with a hand like aq but then again when the riv ace comes would he ever bet there without having an ace beat? putting you on a missed king?

    Kinda think he either

    A. turned a set of 9's and is hoping you have a king and can't fold or

    B. He has a hand like tt jj and decided that since you didn't fire the turn that you didn't have a king and you missed the flop "but this still confuses me because if you c-bet the flop then checked the turn and gave him this though then he has got to put you on an ax type of hand that missed the flop,so after you c/c him on the turn and you check the riv why does he bet if you definitely have ax in your range?"

    C. He has a type of hand like at- aq and took control of the pot in position since you checked the turn and thought you would fold if you missed and your open was just a cbet and got there on the riv.

    Very interesting hand and thanks for the post, I really like going through thought processes like this.

    -Nick-
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  7. I like this hand because it illustrates quite a few concepts including: positional disadvantage, how ranges vary depending on the opponent, and understanding the purpose behind each decision we make (e.g. you checked the turn here for the purpose of maximizing value to get the worse hands to stay in the hand rather than fold). For what it's worth here's my analysis street by street:

    Preflop: Your open UTG+1 is SUPER marginal and for most players who aren't as advanced in tourney play I would suggest you just fold this hand preflop because you will be OOP if called and the strength of your hand isn't spectacular even if you flop big.

    Flop: Your c-bet is very standard. On a dry K hi flop like this we should be c-betting pretty much our entire range. The fact that we are up against a good opponent who is known to be aggressive and knows we are aggressive makes this c-bet even more standard. He knows we are going to c-bet our entire range here so now he has to decide what to do and since he is in position he gets to make the final decisions. Unfortunately for us his positional advantage makes defining his range really difficult because he could be calling here with hands that crush us (sets, QK, AK); hands that we crush which he thinks are likely ahead and he calls to pot control (small pairs, possibly even AQ); and hands that we crush which he is calling to float so that he can take it away on the turn (e.g. a hand like JTs).

    Turn: I like your thought process here and I think it's one that a lot of players miss. I think many players just keep firing here and are happy to take down the pot (or unhappy when they get played back at) and don't think any further. I think the only real benefit to betting this turn is for "information." When we bet and our opponent folds we find out they did not have a set or a K, when our opponent calls or raises we find out they have either a midpair (a hand like TT which will likely fold to a third barrel and will check back if we check river - again showing why our positional disadvantage sucks) or they have us crushed. Since this is a spot where we are way ahead/way behind and we believe that our opp is aggressive and capable of bluffing I think your play is best because it gives us value from his bluffs and we aren't going to get the hands that crush us to fold anyways. It also allows him to turn some of the hands which he called on the flop thinking he might be ahead into bluffs (e.g. the AQ/AJ type hands). But it continues to show why being OOP sucks (and why folding pre is probably best for most) because at this point we now have to rely on our opp to act in order to get value but there is no guarantee that he will do what we want.

    River - Once we check turn I think we have to check river but this is a super gross river because the A hit so much of his range. Remember that by checking the turn we purposefully chose not to define his range any further because we wanted to keep all of his bluffs in the hand. So on the river his range STILL consists of the same hands we ranged him on on the flop: hands that crush us (sets, QK, AK); hands that we crushed on the flop which he thought were likely ahead and he calls to pot control (small pairs, possibly even AQ); and hands that we crush which he called to float and bluff us off (e.g. a hand like JTs). The reason the A is so bad is that the combinations of AQ and AJ are almost equal to the combinations of 44-55, 77-88, and TT-JJ. Thus, about half of the hands which he called on the flop because he thought he was ahead have now hit the river. By the time we get to the river we really are only beating the pure bluffs of his range (we also might occasionally get him to turn his mid pairs into bluffs here too). It looks to me like he bet about 1/2 pot on the river which means that you need to be ahead just about 1 in 4 times for the call to be correct here. I think it's close on the river - the whole reason we check/called turn is because we believe he is capable of bluffing and if he's going to bluff he sort of has to bluff this river. I think I call here but I am not happy about it (and again would wonder whether I should have even opened in the first place).
     
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  8.  
    Originally Posted by zedveron View Post

    I think your logic is sound and i like it vs a weaker player, but the problem is that the river is such an obvious scare card, and he knows that you know this. Is he really expecting you to fold anything on the river that you called the turn with when the perfect barrel card peels off?

    This was my thoughts exactly. Looks like an unlucky river that we just sigh check and watch him check back all his whiffed turn bluffs (small pairs). Once he bets it's like wow am I really beat here but I think once you decide to take your c/c line on the turn there are no river cards that can make you fold. Bad bluff/ poorly played set imo.
    There are regs who call this flop with AJ??? I mean you don't even suggest the AQ/AJ flop call is a float so is he really thinking his hand is good here enough of the time?
    I guess I'm just a supernit but I snap fold KJo pre here... even KQs until about mp3
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  9.  
    Originally Posted by iamthedeck ftw View Post

    This was my thoughts exactly. Looks like an unlucky river that we just sigh check and watch him check back all his whiffed turn bluffs (small pairs). Once he bets it's like wow am I really beat here but I think once you decide to take your c/c line on the turn there are no river cards that can make you fold. Bad bluff/ poorly played set imo.
    There are regs who call this flop with AJ??? I mean you don't even suggest the AQ/AJ flop call is a float so is he really thinking his hand is good here enough of the time?
    I guess I'm just a supernit but I snap fold KJo pre here... even KQs until about mp3

    I mean, vs random players and nitty regs most regs are gonna fold AJ on this flop. But ducku know I'm aggro and his AJ could be good.

    When I float a flop like this with AQ it's mainly to try to take the pot on the turn. But sometimes the turn is like a 2 and they check and i just check back and then they give up on the river and I can check and just win the pot. So it's a float with the best hand some %
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  10. i love your hh posts and analysis
    i think i play it the same way 4 the reasons already stated
    also loved thedean s thoughts on it
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  11. I'm def leaning towards thinking his turn AND river bets are for value simply cuz I think he's checking back turn with AJ/AQ and mid pair (nonset) type hands for showdown value. Also, OTR, he knows you know the A is a scare card so given how you played it, he prob doesn't think you're folding your mid pair type hands here that often.

    I really like your turn check and often do the same thing to control the pot and allow the villain to barrel. If we bet turn then we're not often getting called worse.
    Edited By: Flopnuts1 Sep 27th, 2011 at 11:17 PM
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  12.  
    Originally Posted by chardrian View Post

    Preflop: Your open UTG+1 is SUPER marginal and for most players who aren't as advanced in tourney play I would suggest you just fold this hand preflop because you will be OOP if called and the strength of your hand isn't spectacular even if you flop big.

    i think this is actually pretty important. i'm not sure it's a matter of being 'advanced', but just more of how good you are post flop...how well can you read boards...are you capable of multi-street bluffing, etc. if your plan is to cbet then give up, then you want to be opening pretty tight here...

    ...but i mean even so...we still have 2 pretty big face cards, it's not like we have A5o and are talking about a marginal open. KJ is going to flop pretty well.. all straight draws are gonna have 1 over card, a K or a J on the flop is usually gonna be the best hand. hands like the A5 or other hands that just don't flop as well are gonna be pits play here and def should be folds
    Edited By: Gags30 Sep 29th, 2011 at 03:07 AM
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  13. I feel as if a lot of people are giving ducku way too much credit preflop on this hand. Wouldn't this be an unlikely line to take with hands like 99-AA? no 3 bet pre? He flips over a baby set her more often than he would a hand like jj
     
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  14.  
    Originally Posted by Flopnuts1 View Post

    I'm def leaning towards thinking his turn AND river bets are for value simply cuz I think he's checking back turn with AJ/AQ and mid pair (nonset) type hands for showdown value. Also, OTR, he knows you know the A is a scare card so given how you played it, he prob doesn't think you're folding your mid pair type hands here that often.

    I really like your turn check and often do the same thing to control the pot and allow the villain to barrel. If we bet turn then we're not often getting called worse.


    Doubt villain thinks that AJ AQ are good often enough on the turn when Gags checks. Yea if he has those combos he's floating with what he thinks could be the best hand but I don't think he's going to check back the hands he floats with that may not be good x amount of times when x is likely greater than 50%...

    I think thats the point, us trying to figure out his range for turn betting and iif he bets all his floats and made hands on the turn and checks back his middle value hands or if he just bet/checks some other combination. That's why the river becomes tough for us because we do think he bet his AJ/AQ floaty hands on the turn and now he can be going for value when he gets there.

    I probably call/fold based on if we think DuckU also bets his middle value hands on the turn. Most ppl check back hands w showdown like small PPs and mid PPs 1010-QQ or some kind of Kx here so if he is the type of villain to bet those on the turn (which good players are capable of & are balancing what they are chking back for deception/turn into bluff etc) than that adds in a wider range of hands that he would turn into a bluff on the river making a call seem more profitable. However if we think he chks back his middle value hands on the turn and only bets pure floats/air & nutted hands than the window is smaller. Ring that telephone
    Edited By: Steve Murkle Sep 29th, 2011 at 07:32 AM
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  15. why not just bet turn and c/f river vs ducku ? if ud have complete air ud be 2b right ?
    dont wanna mess up with him in a 50fo where ur edge is monstruous
    interesting check by u on turn but its a shtty situation with this runout with A on the river.
    any blank would be snap c/c as well from u
    but ye, when u checked turned he sees ur range like pp<K, so K and A being out im thinking he would bet like 100% of the times so now u have to call ?
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  16.  
    Originally Posted by 1banditpanda View Post

    why not just bet turn and c/f river vs ducku ? if ud have complete air ud be 2b right ?
    dont wanna mess up with him in a 50fo where ur edge is monstruous
    interesting check by u on turn but its a shtty situation with this runout with A on the river.
    any blank would be snap c/c as well from u
    but ye, when u checked turned he sees ur range like pp<K, so K and A being out im thinking he would bet like 100% of the times so now u have to call ?

    ya i mean...it's an odd river cause i think there are at least a couple AQ/AJ combos in his range...it's interesting that you say you would c/snap call a blank river...on a blank river he's probably way less likely to bluff (at least i would think)...and would make this a really tough spot where we were basically guessing
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  17. interesting analysis... anyways wat did he have?
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  18.  
    Originally Posted by duffmancantread View Post

    interesting analysis... anyways wat did he have?


    FOR REAL
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  19.  
    Originally Posted by Gags30 View Post

    ya i mean...it's an odd river cause i think there are at least a couple AQ/AJ combos in his range...it's interesting that you say you would c/snap call a blank river...on a blank river he's probably way less likely to bluff (at least i would think)...and would make this a really tough spot where we were basically guessing

    Remains pretty much a guessing game like that as well... He knows you know A is perfect bluff card so is he really gonna barrel that knowing you might call lighter and you could double barrel AQ AJ in this spot vs him? very interesting hand shows positional advantage pretty clearly and even best player in the world have tough time when OOP vs competent ones :)
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  20. 1: Would villian play a flopped set any differently? Not sure that matters because....

    2: What is the mathematical logic in the river call? By calling, I guess you are saying, "i think there is a 1/3 chance or better villian is bluffing or has QQ or less." Isn't that your break-even point, 33ish%? You need to be right (or ahead) about 33% of the time for this to be a break-even call? I think you are behind here like 60% of the time, which makes it a profitable call then, right?

    3: Do you just fold to any 3b pre? If you call a 3b pre and opponent barrels the flop, do you let it go or pray for JJ QQ instead? Would you 4b pre then check shove / open shove or r/c or r/f? You were pretty clear on your line as the hand played out, but i am curious about your overall plan pre-flop with so many other possibilities.

    4: What do you think about betting $8k on the flop? It might make it harder for him to float cards, and that level of pressure may make him believe he can get it in if he's strong, or could scare him away from some of his moves on the turn and river if he's not. For example, if you bet $8k, do you think he might have checked the turn instead of betting? I guess you lose value by doing that, since you did flop top pair. But if a little bit of pressure gets him to play his hand face-up, there is value in that too. Keeping your c-bet "standard" OOP seems like you are giving him confidence in what he see's happening. I want that c-bet poisoning his mind on the river. I dunno....just thinking here....

    5: Or, what do you think about checking the flop and reversing position? If there's thin value in your KJ, maybe go for thin value, not fat value. Phil Gordon says "small hand, small pot. big hand, big pot." How crazy is that??? not sure i know what thin value is....

    6: Did you consider a pot control bet on the river? What would be the advantages or disadvantages to leading 12,200 or 14,400 on the river?
    Edited By: gjallen1975 Sep 30th, 2011 at 03:41 PM
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  21. If I was someone capable of translating my thoughts into words, I'd have said something on the lines of what Chardrian said, mine being much worse of course. It's just ridiculous how good he is, and how overwhelmed every post of him makes me feel. His thoughts on the river show, once again, what separates men from God.

    Sadly, I have nothing else to add to the discussion. Love your weird hands Gags :)
    Edited By: andressoprano Sep 30th, 2011 at 04:35 PM
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  22.  
    Originally Posted by decamps View Post

    Remains pretty much a guessing game like that as well... He knows you know A is perfect bluff card so is he really gonna barrel that knowing you might call lighter and you could double barrel AQ AJ in this spot vs him? very interesting hand shows positional advantage pretty clearly and even best player in the world have tough time when OOP vs competent ones :)


    um, it's less of a guessing game with the A. we can make a pretty educated guess that he will be bluffing this A a non 0 % of the time (since it's A. a card that hits his range and B. a card that will scare me and make me fold hands like TT or JJ quite a bit), and can start figuring out what hands in his range he would try to bluff with (mid pairs that arent very high and most likely not good once i call the turn)...by assigning just a few mid-pairs to his river betting range, we then figure out his value range, which again is just sets and AQ/AJ and mayyybe KQ (now the thing to keep in mind here that AJ and AQ def might 3b pre some % of the time, also he's way more likely to flat pre here with AJs, and also more likely to call flop with AQs or AJs cause of backdoor flush possibilities...so therefore the combos of AQ and AJ aren't that great)...so then we get a range that is definitely kind of split between bluffs and value hands

    in the other situation, we really have 0 clue what hands he's going to be bluffing or turning into a bluff...we're not sure if he's going to keep betting his tiny pairs or just check back. we just know that his value range is sets and KQ/KJ hands, and can't really come up with a bluffing range without totally guessing


    also keep in mind that i didn't even mention anything about complete floats on the flop with hands like 87s or something, which again, isn't completely out of the realm of possibilities, but we're just not sure of how often he does them
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  23.  
    Originally Posted by Gags30 View Post

    um, it's less of a guessing game with the A. we can make a pretty educated guess that he will be bluffing this A a non 0 % of the time (since it's A. a card that hits his range and B. a card that will scare me and make me fold hands like TT or JJ quite a bit), and can start figuring out what hands in his range he would try to bluff with (mid pairs that arent very high and most likely not good once i call the turn)...by assigning just a few mid-pairs to his river betting range, we then figure out his value range, which again is just sets and AQ/AJ and mayyybe KQ (now the thing to keep in mind here that AJ and AQ def might 3b pre some % of the time, also he's way more likely to flat pre here with AJs, and also more likely to call flop with AQs or AJs cause of backdoor flush possibilities...so therefore the combos of AQ and AJ aren't that great)...so then we get a range that is definitely kind of split between bluffs and value hands

    in the other situation, we really have 0 clue what hands he's going to be bluffing or turning into a bluff...we're not sure if he's going to keep betting his tiny pairs or just check back. we just know that his value range is sets and KQ/KJ hands, and can't really come up with a bluffing range without totally guessing

    also keep in mind that i didn't even mention anything about complete floats on the flop with hands like 87s or something, which again, isn't completely out of the realm of possibilities, but we're just not sure of how often he does them

    Thx for the so good details and again for sharing
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  24. Ok, I’ve been thinking about this hand from the perspective from DuckU (although his thinking of the game is obv a lot higher and maybe I am waay off here)…

    So, pre> Ducku knows that Gags can definitely open from this spot lighter than what is considered normal from ep. Would this widen his calling range pre though?? Maybe, to include more suited connectors and more paint cards, all PP’s that he doesn’t 3bet with (JJ?? QQ,KK,AA also presuming he 3bets AK)??… Anyway, off my point here already, I’m not looking to see what Ducku has but what he perceives gags to have??...

    Flop> Ducku has to expect that Gags Cbets a lot of K high boards or just cbets most flops in general. So, he could definitely float at this time with most of his range and call with made hands also. I believe this is because he could still be ahead with a lot of his range here and could still look to take the pot away later on. > Sidenote- With no significant history between either its possible ducku perceives that gags would maybe think he would throw away most SC’s after the cbet not including 45, and maybe at a stretch 78?? But more than likely 78 is gone.

    Turn> So chk/bet/call… Ducku can prob now assumethat gags’ hand is more weighted towards pp’s that obv don’t make made hands/sets.That gags could also have AK, KQ, maybe not much wider than kj, maybe k10s?? even then tho…I Dunno, he's defining gags’ hand better. But I’d also expect gags to fold AQ,AJ here as long as they’re not AsQs, AsJs tho most of the time.

    River> Chk from Gags… At this point Ducku can perceive Gags’ range as a hand with showdown value. So he’s looking at loosely 22,44,55,77,88,TT,JJ,QQ,AK,KQ,KJ, K10s ~ and maybe AsQs, AsJs assuming Gags folds all other AQ/J on the turn.

    When the A peels on this river this improves more hands Ducku has in his range, than it does to gags’ range thus narrowing gag’s calling range on the river even more or would it?? Maybe this card gives gags more reason to call...

    I’d say regardless of what hand Ducku has, he is weighing his own perceived range against what he perceives Gags’ range to be in this spot and what part of that range can Gags call a river value bet with and what hands he perceives Gags would think he would value bet with of his own?? <Hope this makes sense... So of Gags’range that Ducku gives him (obv guessing, but not too dis-similar to theabove??) of those hands what does he think a player like gags can call with??
    *AK, Definitely if gags plays AK in the hand this way. I don’t know.

    *KQ?? Can you expect a call a reasonable amount of the timewith KQ and then does ducku think that the cut-off point of gags’ value bet calling rangeis KQ,KJ? Then if you factor in what hands gags thinks Ducku would bet with in this spot? (33,66,99,KQ?, AQ,AJ) Then marginal hands/air(JJ,TT,88,77,55,44,22) … With this being such a marginal spot to call with QQ,JJ,KJ,K10 or less(not sure how much difference KQ makes in this spot compared), With a bet from ducku it would make him a much more favourite to take the hand down if AK,KQ are the only hands that can beat ducku’s air that gags would be willing to call down with…I’m sure Ducku would know this.
    If ducku checks back the river wouldn't he be at the mercy of the rest of gags' range that maybe he doesn't beat? I think Ducku should and does bet the river here to protect his hands that gags beats also meaning that Gags folds most of his own range.

    With regards to either players' hypothetical range on the river i put both into pokerstove.

    Gags- QQ-TT,88-77,55-44,22,AJs+,KTs+,AKo,KJo+ -43.747%

    DuckU- JJ-22,AQs-AJs,KQs,AQo-AJo,KQo - 56.253%

    But also Ducku's range could also include 45,and other picked up draws on the turn. If he's still in with any. With this though shouldn't it make a river bet all the more likely from Ducku?

    I feel like if you understand this reasoning then yourcalling range should become wider in these spots?? But I don’t know if I do understand all that well…

    Would most regs take this marginal spot? I’m not a reg but it seems that a large amount of regs in this thread would fold. Does this mean Ducku can profitably value bet all of his range against other regs in this scenario??

    -Just wanted to tryand give the thoughts of what maybe Ducku would be thinking in this spot and if this reasoning is ever correct and if this is, why a river call would ever be made by gags?

    If any of this is good/bad i'd appreciate any confirmation/corrections to what i was thinking. Thanks
    Edited By: H0ldnemHall Sep 30th, 2011 at 09:43 PM
    Reason: word
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  25. If you think youre good here often enough and most of his value range is 1 pair hands like KQ AJ AO why not turn your hand into a bluff and raise river bet. If he knows you know hes floating this kind of a flop a ton then you can easily have AK and sets for value here.
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  26.  
    Originally Posted by timorm1 View Post

    If you think youre good here often enough and most of his value range is 1 pair hands like KQ AJ AO why not turn your hand into a bluff and raise river bet. If he knows you know hes floating this kind of a flop a ton then you can easily have AK and sets for value here.


    not sure that he knows i know he's floating...also, it's highly unlikely that i would play AK that way, i would probably just be betting the river (EDIT: I won't edit this out, but I def wouldn't bet the river here with AK, I meant if he checked back the turn then I would lead river, which idk why I was thinking of that, cause thats not what happened in the hand, ooops, rest of analysis is good still tho), so when i raise it's a really strange line...what exactly would our AK expect to get value from? you can't just raise and say oh i could have AK if i raise here

    i do like the way you're thinking tho about turning hands into bluffs
    Edited By: Gags30 Oct 1st, 2011 at 04:10 PM
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  27.  
    Originally Posted by Gags30 View Post

    not sure that he knows i know he's floating...also, it's highly unlikely that i would play AK that way, i would probably just be betting the river, so when i raise it's a really strange line...what exactly would our AK expect to get value from? you can't just raise and say oh i could have AK if i raise here

    i do like the way you're thinking tho about turning hands into bluffs

    Tnx,
    If your line of thought on the turn with KJ was youre not gettin too much value from midpairs so check it in order to get value on the river, would you c/c when he bet and lead river with AK here? And how would you play say AA/KK?
    And if the line looks fos (say with AK) and gets called wide cause what are you gettin value out of, aint it exactly a reason to take it for value against duckU or another strong reg which you meet a lot and have a chance to balance against?
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  28. I love every street Mike.

    I wish I could write a longer, more detailed post, but I think it's all been covered and I doubt I can improve on what a lot of these guys said.

    I especially like the turn check since you're new to the table and w/o a ton of history, I just don't see a ton of value in betting. I mix up check/folding and check/calling the river based on timing/game flow.

    I would love to hear more about his sizing (~2/3 psb) here and how different sizing would impact your thought process and your perception of his range. Like what if he bets 1/3 pot or overbets the river. I know we got to the river the same way, but how does different sizing effect our decision?
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  29.  
    Originally Posted by Gags30 View Post

    not sure that he knows i know he's floating...also, it's highly unlikely that i would play AK that way, i would probably just be betting the river, so when i raise it's a really strange line...what exactly would our AK expect to get value from? you can't just raise and say oh i could have AK if i raise here

    i do like the way you're thinking tho about turning hands into bluffs

    why would you c/c turn then lead river if you had AK? I feel like that would be even weirder than either c/c or c/r
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  30.  
    Originally Posted by FenwayKing View Post

    why would you c/c turn then lead river if you had AK? I feel like that would be even weirder than either c/c or c/r

    Ya I def would never lead river with AK, idk what I was thinking when I wrote that. There is a better chance that I'd bet the turn with AK tho, since we beat all Kx combos that he's calling with. Sure, he might fold mid pairs, but at least we beat KQ and KJ, idk, I guess we could just check/call with the AK

     
    Originally Posted by elusively View Post

    I love every street Mike.

    I wish I could write a longer, more detailed post, but I think it's all been covered and I doubt I can improve on what a lot of these guys said.

    I especially like the turn check since you're new to the table and w/o a ton of history, I just don't see a ton of value in betting. I mix up check/folding and check/calling the river based on timing/game flow.

    I would love to hear more about his sizing (~2/3 psb) here and how different sizing would impact your thought process and your perception of his range. Like what if he bets 1/3 pot or overbets the river. I know we got to the river the same way, but how does different sizing effect our decision?

    eek, if he over bets that's tough. Given the sizing he used I think he's pretty polarized...he knows it's gonna be tough for me to call when the A hits (cause remember I look like JJ) so he probably doesn't bet so big with a hand like KQ, potentially discouraging a light call by me.

    I think a 1/3 pot bet would be more of a thin style value bet, but even could be a bluff just because of the fact that an A hit. Everyone knows that the A is scary and it's probably still profitable to just throw some bet out there cause a lot of people just fold their mid pair anyway. But a 1/3 pot bet is def more scary to me on this board than a bigger bet, cause I really think it's a lot more value. Not sure I'd fold then, but I def wouldn't be as happy about calling

    Ok so if he over bets he either A. Knows it's a spot where my range is face up and I won't fold (he's trying to get value) or B. My range is face up as a decent hand but kind of weak, and he has nothing. He knows I have some showdown value, but can't call a huge bet
    In this spot I can't see how it looks like we're never folding here, so i would think an over bet would be more of a bluff type spot on this board. Now, he def can merge and bet huge for super thin value, but this usually only with more history and not on a board like this where I look fairly weak and easily could be folding
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