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Party 750k Bubble Hand

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  1. Zimmer4141 Zimmer4141 is offline

    Ann Arbor, MI
    United States

    Posts: 77
    Joined: Oct 05

    Jan 30th, 2006 (1/30/2006 9:39am)

    Pretty basic question here, I post much more on FCP than I do here, but would like some opinions from you guys as well.

    No HH on this computer, so I'll try to make it as nice as possible.

    405 players left, 400 cash.

    I have 10k, UTG+1 has about 4.5k, blinds 300/600.

    UTG+1 has been tight around the bubble, and seems to be wanting to get in the money. He pushes all in, I have AKo in MP.

    Do you push to isolate? Call? or Fold?
     
  2. FriedFish FriedFish is offline

    Monmouth Junction, NJ
    United States

    Posts: 948
    Joined: Jul 05

    Jan 30th, 2006 (1/30/2006 1:50pm) in reply to Zimmer4141

    The guy has been tight, utg +1, there is a good chance you are dominated. Many players will just shove AA, KK in that spot, with his stack size. It also conceals its strength. I'd fold because those extra chips 5.4k, even if you win, aren't going to drastically change your tourney outcome and you could be dominated.
  3. lionbull lionbull is offline

    Chilliwack
    Canada

    Posts: 15
    Joined: Jan 06

    Jan 30th, 2006 (1/30/2006 1:57pm) in reply to Zimmer4141

    Easy fold, When I get that close to the bubble, I'm in the kitchen making a sandwich, I mean another 10 minutes or so u be in the money and u can start making a push for the top ten then. let others gamble. Whats FCP?
  4. Zimmer4141 Zimmer4141 is offline

    Ann Arbor, MI
    United States

    Posts: 77
    Joined: Oct 05

    Jan 30th, 2006 (1/30/2006 2:40pm) in reply to lionbull

    Well, I think there is a problem with your mindset, because you can make a lot of free chips from people who play super tight around the bubble. However, I do often try to stay out of big pots around the bubble. FCP is fullcontactpoker.com, Negreanu's site. Another forum, most notable for a horrible general section, but strat is solid there.
     
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  5. FriedFish FriedFish is offline

    Monmouth Junction, NJ
    United States

    Posts: 948
    Joined: Jul 05

    Jan 30th, 2006 (1/30/2006 3:18pm) in reply to Zimmer4141

    Let me guess, you reraised all in, the guy flips up, QQ and you win the race?
  6. Zimmer4141 Zimmer4141 is offline

    Ann Arbor, MI
    United States

    Posts: 77
    Joined: Oct 05

    Jan 30th, 2006 (1/30/2006 7:54pm) in reply to FriedFish

    No, he flipped AA, I couldn't suckout, limped into the money, lost a coinflip yet again in the big tourney and profited $100.
     
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  7. xcalibur1120 xcalibur1120 is offline

    Helena, AL
    United States

    Posts: 313
    Joined: Dec 05

    Jan 31st, 2006 (1/31/2006 7:19pm) in reply to Zimmer4141

    Z, I call (and then throw up if/when the big stack in the BB comes over the top of me...but that is for another thread) that just cause it looks like what is called a "positional raise". This is a technique I've added to my aresenal after watching a Bax, BRSavage, and Leggggggggggggggggggy, use it (at least I think they are). You do it right before your blinds come up so you can basicly play for free for another orbit (minus the antes of course). This is done because the guy in MP with AK has to decided whether he is going to play since (1) there is a raise in front of me and (2) there are still people behind me to act. Most people in this spot (near bubble and late) will fold hands like AJ and KQ in later position to an early postion raise perhaps rightfully so based on the "The Gap Concept" from Sklansky. But this is exactly why it works since you believe that he is strong but he knows that you know that so do you know that he knows what you know? (...wait...where was I?).... In addition, I can't lay down AK here since it is not my style to "just make the money" after three to four hours. You have an opportunity here where you can get some more ammo and contrary to what is stated above, chips are chips. Simple question, would you call your whole tourney on AK for a double up or KO? I would. What more can you ask for then playing a big pot with AK? I would to make a real run and are only a big dog to two hands (which he wound up having, but is a staticaly annomaly), but could also be highly domiate to such as AQ or AJ. I know you said he was tight, but tight players can make moves too as that is their game plan. BTW, what kinda tourney has top 400 paying??? Is there like 4000 people in this??
  8. Zimmer4141 Zimmer4141 is offline

    Ann Arbor, MI
    United States

    Posts: 77
    Joined: Oct 05

    Jan 31st, 2006 (1/31/2006 8:52pm) in reply to xcalibur1120

    It was the Sunday $350 tourney on party. It gets around 2800 usually, but always pays top 400. I understand what you're saying, but I don't think the average player in this tourney is good enough to make this play.

    What makes me queasy about this hand is a few things.

    1. He is playing super-tight likely because we are so close to the money
    2. I have people behind me to act that can push over the top of me
    3. I know the structure is bad, so I have to gamble if I want any chance of going deep

    1 and 2 are telling me to fold, but #3 overrode both of those for me. I figured about 20% of the time he has AA and I'm dead, 20% he has KK and I'm roughly a 3-1 dog. 60% he has QQ-TT and I'm an underdog in a coinflip. Also, if I lose the hand, I'm not out, I can cash, and gamble in a few hands. In retrospect, I think there's enough showing that he has me dominated that I should've likely folded.
     
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  9. AceRunner AceRunner is offline

    Thailand

    Posts: 3,722
    Joined: Nov 05

    Jan 31st, 2006 (1/31/2006 9:40pm) in reply to Zimmer4141

    Fold- you lose nothing by folding and the chance that you are ahead is not looking good.

    potential hands(assuming he is playing tight)

    AQ
    AK
    1010
    JJ
    QQ
    KK
    AA

    Therefore only 1 of these hands you are ahead of, and if he has AA you're F'ed. You have plenty of chips- you don't need to gamble here. Plus your calling with AK.
  10. ferrengi ferrengi is offline

    Brooklyn, NY
    United States

    Posts: 762
    Joined: Jul 05

    Jan 31st, 2006 (1/31/2006 10:49pm) in reply to Zimmer4141

    I agree with your statement that it is unlikely the average player who plays very tight at the bubble has thought out this whole positional raise thing. If someone appears to be playing to make the money and then all of a sudden goes all in when he is so close to acheiving his goal, you have to assign at least a 50% probability to a big pair (KK or AA). Secondly, even if he hasn't got the big pair, what other hands could he conceivably have? QQ or lower or at best he will also have AK.
    This is not good for you. You are risking half your stack to get into a situation where it is very unlikely you have a better hand. Fold and save your chips for a better opportunity.
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