[x]Register Now
Check out our brand new Local Poker Communities! Get updates and interact with poker players in your area.
Visit the United States Poker Community | Visit the California Poker Community | Read more about the Launch of P5s Local
Visit the United States Poker Community | Visit the California Poker Community | Read more about the Launch of P5s Local
-
Everybody has ran into the situation. Wondering if anybody has insight into the best way to approach the situation. It seems if no matter what if I push really hard, I will still get the call. I however hate checking, waiting to see if I'll get drawn out on. If my opponent doesn't make his flush, I get no action. If he does, I don't want action.
Here's an example:
Blinds at 50/100
Stack sizes are all comparable @ about 2200 chips
UTG I am dealt A
K
I raise to 300
I inexplicably get called by 3 other players (I am fairly tight overall and extremely tight out of position/UTG)
1200 in the pot
FLOP: Q
J
10
SM. Blind Checks
BG. Blind Checks
MY TURN TO ACT- I decide with 4 players in the pot, it is time to take it down. There is for sure someone on the flush draw.
I bet 800 This is a fairly sizable bet compared to chip stacks. I do not typically make pot sized (or over) bets, just because most of the people I play against look at that bet as a steal. In my experience, the 3/4 bet typically protects my hands alot better.
The player to my left min raises to 1600
SM and BG blind Fold
It is 800 for me to call, but I only have 1100 left. I have the raiser covered by only about 100 chips
I push in
Player to my left calls and shows 3
5
Turn: 2
River: 6
I have tried to play this hand all sorts of different ways: ie, pushing all in post flop, waiting for turn to make sure the draw is priced out, checking all the way to the river if anybody lets me. This is just the most recent way it went down.
Please let me know if anybody has an effective method of playing hands like these. It is just possible this is a play-by-feel hand. But any comment would be appreciated! -
He's only 35% to hit his Flush in 2 cards. He needs 1.86:1 to be correct in taking that risk.
1200 pot + your 800 + ( the implied 1000 in your stack that he could win ) = 3000.
3000 / 1800 ( his risk ) = 1.67:1.
Apparently that was close enough to suit him if you factor in that a player in your position would Fold some percentage of the time.
I don't see anything you could have done differently. -
Thanks for the response. Ignoring this specific instance (and I understand everything depends on the exact situation) is there any more effective ways to play these types of hands. It seems even if I price the flush draw out with a big bet, I get called.
My buddy had kind of a funny reaction: He told me to cross my nuts and hope for the best. -
Anything which might propitiate the Poker Ghods is helpful. ;-)
Not really. All you can control is what should be the correct thing for your opponent to do. If he chooses to make a mistake, you both have to live with the immediate consequences. -
This is one of those situations where it is correct to overbet the flop . There are three high cards which means there is a good chance it hit someone . Another advantage in overbetting the pot is that it becomes incorrect for any player to play a flush draw which simplifies your decision on the turn . ( this may not apply to low limit players ) . You may also get a player with two pair to commit a lot of money to find out if his hand is the best .
The disadvantage in making a three quarter size bet is that an opponent with a flush draw may raise you to the point where he becomes pot committed which eliminates your fold equity . -
Let's think about that for a minute.
If you overbet the Flop, some percentage of the time he Folds, and some percentage he Pushes. ( Let's assume he's too smart to just Call. )
If he Pushes, your overbet leaves you committed to Call his Push. Even if his bet is "wrong", 35% of the time he makes his Flush and you lose the smaller of your stack or his.
So, what percentage of the time MUST he Fold before the overbet becomes profitable? -
You have the nuts on the flop so you're in fact putting your opponents in a tenious situation . More often than not , a player will fold a flush draw if he's good , and there is a decent chance you'll win a ton of money if a player with 2 pair pushes all in .
The overbet will always be profitable as you have the nuts on the flop and there are fewer than 14 outs on the flop for any one individual to be considered even money against you . The question is whether or not overbetting the pot is the most profitable play in the long run which I believe to be the case here . If someone is on a flush draw , then they 're making a huge mistake by calling your bet . However , since the board is coordinated with cards that are in the playing zone , it's very likely that someone hit two pair on the flop and may re-raise you which would be an excellent result for you win or lose . -
I believe you want the flush draw to call you because you have a very strong hand. You just have to make sure you bet enough for it to be a mistake for him to call. I would not overbet teh pot. This is bad for two reasons...first you going to make most people fold when in fact you want a call (just not with correct odds)...second most people who chase draws with incorrect odds will chase for any price. By overbetting the pot you are crippling yourself if in fact he calls and hits.
-
Muchaka i'm sorry but you're mistaken .
This concept is also in supersystem , if you didn't know about this play , I suggest you read that section if you haven't already . -
Dunno, jay, I'm not prepared to tell a guy with as much success as muchaka's that he's wrong.
Given the stack sizes here, and the implied odds, I don't think there's any bet Hero can make that Villain isn't prepared to Call.
If we run this 20 times, Villain wins 7 for 21,000, and loses 13 for 27,300. Chasing the Flush is clearly the wrong thing to do. Villain's EV is -315 per trial. If Villain does the correct thing and Folds, he only loses 300, which costs Hero money.
This one is a case where we clearly want Villain to Call, so doing anything that discourages him is counterproductive. -
In fact this is a routine play for me . If Muchaka is right , then Doyle is wrong :) .
-
There are a few things he said that are incorrect . He mentions that you don't want the player with a flush draw to be chasing you if you overbet the pot . I don't mind if a player chases for his entire stack , even if it cripples my chance of winning the tournament and he gets there on the river .
-
Ummmm, reread his post please. He clearly says he does want Villain to chase. He just doesn't think there's any necessity to bet so much that you cripple yourself on those occasions when he hits.
Since you're going to lose 35% of the time anyway, why make it hurt worse than it needs to when it does? ie. Why bet more than the minimum needed to make chasing mathematically incorrect?
He's right, there is no reason to do so. Overbetting the Flop just reduces your EV for this matchup presuming there is any bet you can make that Villain doesn't Raise.
Pushing yourself is clearly wrong here, because it might cause Villain to Fold, and we've already seen that Villain saves money by Folding.
The only way Villain's Folding would make us more money is if we'd bet bigger PreFlop. If Villain were already in for more than 315, then his Fold makes us more money per hand than his chasing does. -
That is the point , I don't mind being crippled if I overbet the pot and he gets there . He clearly states that he wants the player to draw to the flush if you make a smaller bet . I claim that I wouldn't mind if the player pushes his entire stack which would make me a 2-1 favourite , even though I know i'll be eliminated 33 % of the time .
-
This hand presents something of a paradox and may illustrate an important difference between cash game play, and tournament play.
If playing a cash game, Hero makes the most money here by betting bigger Pre-flop and then getting Villain to do the correct thing and Fold on the Flop.
Let's say Hero bet 350 instead of 300 Pre. Now, Villain saves money by chasing since the very most he can lose is an average 315 per trial, whereas if he Folds, he loses 350.
On the other hand, in a tournament, we want Villain to do the incorrect thing and chase no matter how much we bet Pre. In a tournament, we want to win stacks not just chips, and this is a case where Villain will likely lose his whole stack 65% of the time.
So, in a cash game we want to bet bigger Pre-Flop and discourage a Call, whereas in a tournament we want to encourage the Call. -
If i'm a 2-1 favourite , I want to ecourage a call in a cash game and a tournament game .
Here are compelling arguments for overbetting the pot .
a) there are three other players in a raised pot
b) Most likely the flop hit someone pretty good
c) If any player has tptk or two pair , they would be foolish not to raise you
d) If someone chases with a flush draw , then clearly making an oversized bet is MUCH better than making a three quarter size bet . -
Your logic doesn't track.
First off, an oversized bet is more likely to make weak players Fold.
Second, a player who is experienced enough to see the overbet as a steal and Call is also too experienced to be chasing a Flush at bad odds. He'd just let you steal since he knows the Call is a long-term loser. That leaves only the lesser made hands who are really hurt by this play.
Now, you're down to the fish. They will chase their Flush no matter what odds are offered. They will also get there 35% of the time. By overbetting, you only hurt yourself when they do. An overbet on the Flop commits you to another big bet on the Turn if the Flush card doesn't show. Now you're in for a lot more money than necessary when that Flush card hits on the River.
Since a Flush has the best odds to hit, betting just enough to take away those odds is all that's required. Betting anything more just hurts your EV on the hand. -
Doyle mentions how he likes to play a made straight with ace king very fast on the flop . He likes to overbet the pot and hope that he gets played back by someone with another strong hand . If you have an aggressive image , then there are even more compelling reasons to make an oversize bet .
-
Well, Doyle would have bet more before the Flop, too.
Then, when he played that Nut Straight fast, he'd get the best of both worlds. If his opponent has a Drawing hand and correctly Folds, he realizes a greater EV on the hand than if the opponent had chased. If he gets Called, it's by a lesser made hand that is very unlikely to improve.
You've got to remember the quality of competition Doyle routinely faces. He isn't up against fish who routinely chase a Flush at highly marginal odds. -
Yes and thats exactly what i'm talking about . I believe it is correct to overbet the pot on the flop in any situation where you're playing in a raised pot and three other players have cold called your raise .
-
I don't know how to state it much more clearly.
When the stack/blind ratio is as low as it was here, overbetting does not help you when a chaser misses, but it does hurt you when a chaser hits. It's a reduced EV play. -
I like the overbet for a different reason. Say you bet 2/3 pot. One of the next 2 guys calls for whatever dumb reason (2 pair straight draw whatever) now if one of the players in the blinds is the one with the flush draw now they do have the implied odds to call. The overbet should get out any callers that give the flush draw odds.
-
That is another compelling reason phatcat , nice post .
-
No matter who's right here, it's great to see some heavyweights in this thread. Please, phatty, and Muchaka, continue to read these threads and chime in. I really welcome your insights.
Doesn't it all come down to the quality of the field?
With a weak field, I think the overbet may work the way Phatcat expects. But what about a strong field? Aren't those guys going to see an overbet as weak and vulnerable? Or, an outright steal?
I think that's likely. Which means that TPGK, or 2 Pair are going to Call. So a late position chaser is still going to have the Explicit Pot Odds he needs.
If the chaser is early, or if their are no Callers, it becomes a matter of Implied Odds. As long as Hero's stack is big enough to make the Implied Odds right, or at least very close, Villain will Push. Which, given Villain's stack, is nearly neutral EV with a Fold anyway.
In short, I don't think it matters what you bet as long as it's enough to deny proper Pot Odds. Villain seems likely to Push anyway. If he's late, overbetting seems more likely to give him the explicit odds he needs, which only makes his decision easier. -
I'm starting to feel that perhaps the overbet isn't a bad move here. It takes away my opponents option to raise and makes the price a little worse. Although I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that my opponent here would have called. It's just how this specific person plays.
Now, don't get too angry at me with this one: Is it at all acceptable to check after the flop? If he bets I clearly still need to at least call (if not go over the top here) if he checks, I can see the turn, if it doesn't pair the board or bring the third club, I still have the nuts.
It is a weak way to play it, but with only one card left you can almost definitely push the draw out. IF a club does come, i guess it still would be a mighty tough laydown for me, but whenever I am in these multi-way pots and two cards are suited on the flop, it seems somebody has a flush draw. -
I really hate a Check.
Sure, it has the potential to save a bet. But, that's only gonna be one time in 5.2 when the Turn brings the dreaded Flush card. So, you save a bet 20% of the time, and totally sacrifice a laydown 80% of the time. Not at all profitable.
You've got to do whatever you can to take away his odds for making the Draw.
I think you made a good bet. Less would definitely have been too little. My sense is that more would not have helped in the least. -
I think in the weak field/strong field scenario, the results are opposite of what you state. There is no way a strong player is going to think that anyone is going to steal on this flop. Its way too dangerous of a flop to try and steal as it likely hit more than one person. The weak player on the other hand just might see it that way and give you a call which you welcome. If this gives the flush draw his odds than so be it, you've got a huge pot built holding the current nuts and probable nuts in the end. If you take the pot down with your overbet that's fine too (im talking tourney strategy here, cash game maybe more of a mistake to scare off some weaker callers) as it minimizes risk of busting out to a draw or splitting the pot on such a scary flop.
-
I will defer to you, sir. gg, wp, and smd for being right ;-)
Oh, and f beanie while we're at it. -
Thanks to all for the valuable input! I guess I'll just continue to be happy when somebody calls all-in with a draw against the nuts...
-
The problem with your analysis here Dunce is that in order for it to be correct for the flush draw to call in that spot he needs to know that he has the best flush draw. Drawing the a 5 high flush is pretty weak in my opinion. I have read The Theory of Poker so I know that the implied odds will be reduced due to the fact that the 5 high flush can only be the best draw X% of the time. I'll leave that X% for somebody else to figure because as I could teach anybody about higher order Differential Equations, I am still lost in the woods when it come to probability.
Hero, I feel you made the correct play by betting but I wouldn't expect a fold when you pushed all in due to the simple fact that Mr. 5 high Flush draw already committed himself with the 1600. If you are consistently getting the money in verse nothing but a flush draw, you will make a killing in this game. I'll take that situation 100% of the time.
I am pretty sure that Hellmuth would be the only player to try and look for a better spot to get his money in the middle then after flopping the nut straight. Your 2-1 or could be even better if me is making that play with two pair or the bottom end of the straight. PUSH AND PRAY.
Similar Threads
-
3 Replies
Pair, Flush Draw, Inside Straight Draw (Turn decision)
By Redman7027 in Poker Discussion
Last Post: Jun 28th, 2010, 04:49 PM -
0 Replies
Flopped flush and open ended straight flush draw
By molotok in Poker Discussion
Last Post: Dec 10th, 2007, 07:05 PM -
6 Replies
Flop Nut Straight - Straight Flush Draw. Can I lay it down.
By OhToBe in Poker Discussion
Last Post: May 12th, 2007, 01:56 PM -
2 Replies
So I flop the wheel, nut flush draw, straight flush draw
By PokerLungs in Poker Discussion
Last Post: Oct 6th, 2006, 11:29 AM -
0 Replies
Guidelines on playing multiway pots when a flush or straight draw is present.
By Vegas_Shades in Poker Discussion
Last Post: Jun 7th, 2005, 10:20 AM








