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Hello,
This situation has come a few times on me lately, not sure the best way to play it. I'm playing low stakes, either 2c/5c or maybe .10c/.25c, I don't think there is a whole lot of difference in the levels, but that could just be because I haven't played it enough.
The situation involves me in late postion, an unraised (or min raised) pot where at least 4 or 5 prople are seeing the flop.
The flop comes out 9-10-Q. I hold JKxx. For arguments sake, lets say that there is a flush draw out there as well (which I have no part of)
There is a bet, and a call (maybe two calls). I know someone is on a flush draw, and almost sure that someone has a set.
So at this point, am I supposed to make a raise, and make people pay, even though I know they won't fold? Should I just call, then make the big bet on the turn, if the flush or boat doesn't hit? Or should I just call a turn bet as well, and see what happens.
One time I did raise, only to then have the original raiser re-raise... ended up 4 people all-in, the turn paired the board, so I knew I was dead. Had I just called the flop bet, I could have gotten away on the turn.
Just seeing what the best way to play these type of hands would be,
Thanks -
This is actually a very good question. I find myself in this situation a lot of times. If there are 4 people in the pot like you say, most likely one does have a flush draw and the other has a set. The problem you run into is one person could have a flush draw and KJXX or a set and KJXX and be ahead. With that being said, I would probably wait for a safe card on the turn and then shove a pot sized bet out there, and get all your chips in if there is a reraise.
I could be wrong about how to play this, but that is what I would do. I also like to raise preflop if I play a hand, it weeds out some weaker hands, and makes the pot bigger when you do hit a monster.
Hope this helps, I'm not a expert PLO player, but I have had some moderate success at 0.50/1.00 PLO and lower. Any good PLO players feel free to throw in your two cents as well. -
I like pot control until I see the turn. Unless I have a bunch of sick re-draws...
Kajun $endz -
I'm with Kajun, but I bet the flop.
Jam turn if it's safe. -
Kajun is right. I like to make my pot decisions on the turn as well. I started playing .10/.25 PLO 3 months ago and am now at .50/1.00 about to bump to 1/2. The game at this level is very beatable if you are patient and don't overplay hands.
In your situation you have the nuts on the flop. However, you are correct that a lot of people will not let go of the flush draw or 2 pair. If this were NL you would obv. shove. Since it is PL I would see one more card then put as much as you can in if it is not a scare card. -
Seems to me like the best way to play these hands is to do both, if you know what I mean. You should sometimes be betting, while other times you should be flatting.
Assuming you are at a table, though, and you somehow see that one player has hit a set and another has a flush draw (of which you have no part), your equity is actually quite small in relation to the pot you are building if you raise. For me, with no redraws, the optimal play is to peel a card off and see what develops on the turn. That way, you can make any raise you want to make sure none of your opponents are getting the right odds to call. Or, if a flush/boat card hits, you can get out of Dodge. This way of playing will reduce variance in the long run.
Arguments going the other way are that you want to maximize equity, so if you know you are ahead, you should jam the pot as much as possible. However, to me the gains rarely outweigh the risks. I plugged some random hands into an odds calculator to find some numbers. In your scenario, assuming you hold KJxx versus a nut flush draw vs. top set, you are actually around a 35% favorite to win, whereas the nut flush is about 25%, and the top set actually has the greatest likelihood of showdown value at about 40%. The chance of somebody laying down top set, even on such a scary board, is generally small unless you have a supremely tight image. Flatting the bet and waiting for a harmelss turn card reduces the chance of your opponents winning greatly: You are now around a 56% favorite, versus flush (16%) and set (28%).
Long story short: Reduce variance by peeling a card. Against less opponents, I am more prone to jam. -
I kind of feel like James Carville in Old School. Exactly what Maitre said. Good question.
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I appreciate the responses everyone... thanks again.
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