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PLO8 hand: I really liked this flop at first...

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  1. grapsfan grapsfan is offline Head Curmudgeon

    Rosemount, MN
    United States

    Posts: 7,980
    Joined: Jun 05

    Apr 8th, 2011 (4/8/2011 5:07am)

    Rush PLO8 cash game. thalia and telica are both regulars in the game.

    Is this an insta-fold, or am I not in jail here as bad as I think I am?

    Full Tilt Poker Game #29715355456: Table Lickety Split (6 max) - $0.25/$0.50 - Pot Limit Omaha H/L - 21:11:43 ET - 2011/04/07
    Seat 1: jmujake ($93.65)
    Seat 2: PJPHIL ($26.40)
    Seat 3: thalia12 ($11.30)
    Seat 4: telica77 ($44.10)
    Seat 5: grapsfan ($88.50)
    Seat 6: kdiddy96 ($154.10)
    thalia12 posts the small blind of $0.25
    telica77 posts the big blind of $0.50
    The button is in seat #2
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to grapsfan [Qs Tc 9h Jh]
    grapsfan calls $0.50
    kdiddy96 folds
    jmujake folds
    PJPHIL folds
    thalia12 raises to $2
    telica77 calls $1.50
    grapsfan calls $1.50
    *** FLOP *** [Th Qd 3h]
    thalia12 bets $6
    telica77 raises to $24
    grapsfan ???????
     
  2. AmSlim22 AmSlim22 is offline

    Port Jefferson, NY
    United States

    Posts: 8,633
    Joined: Jan 06

    Apr 8th, 2011 (4/8/2011 5:19am) in reply to grapsfan

    ehh, i dunno. i prob fold. also may just open fold first to act.

    it is prob close. obv u would just get it in with thalia. telica could just have nut flush and a pair, or KJ and flush draw. obv set is small poss. just seems like u need to hold and prob at least some of ur str8 draw isnt good, and flush may not be good. so i dont think u are as able to improve as it seems u are.

    tough spot for sure.
     
  3. doc793 doc793 is offline

    Clio, MI
    United States

    Posts: 192
    Joined: Apr 06

    Apr 8th, 2011 (4/8/2011 5:32am) in reply to grapsfan

    Fold. Against 2 regulars in this game you are likely going to have to fade almost everything if you aren't already behind. Obviously 8 is good. K is a maybe and guessing flush is not. Can't see anyway that you are the favorite here unless they both have AKJx without the flush draw.

    Best guess. Preflop raiser AAxx and you aren't getting him out because he is pot committed. He will not be far behind you here. Raiser has a set(most likely) or a nut flush draw and likely at least one gut shot straight draw to go with it.
     
  4. Dissident Dissident is offline

    Posts: 8,282
    Joined: Jun 05

    Apr 8th, 2011 (4/8/2011 6:15am) in reply to doc793

    Dealt to grapsfan [Qs Tc 9h Jh]
    *** FLOP *** [Th Qd 3h]

    So we have:
    Top two
    Open ended straight draw.
    Jack high flush draw.

    I dont see myself ever folding. I'm sticking it in and hoping he doesnt have nut flush draw or KJAA
  5. nw25th nw25th is offline

    Daejeon
    Korea, Republic of

    Posts: 1,386
    Joined: Jun 07

    Apr 8th, 2011 (4/8/2011 8:48am) in reply to TrueMetalMan

     
    Originally Posted by Dissident View Post

    Dealt to grapsfan [Qs Tc 9h Jh]
    *** FLOP *** [Th Qd 3h]

    So we have:
    Top two
    Open ended straight draw.
    Jack high flush draw.

    I dont see myself ever folding. I'm sticking it in and hoping he doesnt have nut flush draw or KJAA


    I don't fold dream flops...esp if you're playing this hand in split...you pretty much flopped rummy here...
  6. grapsfan grapsfan is offline Head Curmudgeon

    Rosemount, MN
    United States

    Posts: 7,980
    Joined: Jun 05

    Apr 9th, 2011 (4/9/2011 2:51am) in reply to nw25th

    Thanks for the responses...can be tough to get input on anything non-NLHE....

    My thoughts were that thalia almost certainly had AAxx. I'm a little nervous about him having the nut flush draw and/or something like AJ or AK for the bigger straight draw which fucks some of my outs. I have a tough time putting anything but a set, most likely 33 since I have top two.

    If I'm wrong on either of those reads, I'm in really good shape. Along with everything else already in the pot, I couldn't fold...and just calling didn't make sense either when both guys had most of their stack in the middle and it felt like I flopped as close as I could to gin, without actually having the nuts.

    As it turns out, I was wrong on BOTH reads, and was still fading most of the deck. Here's the full hand:

    Full Tilt Poker Game #29715355456: Table Lickety Split (6 max) - $0.25/$0.50 - Pot Limit Omaha H/L - 21:11:43 ET - 2011/04/07
    Seat 1: jmujake ($93.65)
    Seat 2: PJPHIL ($26.40)
    Seat 3: thalia12 ($11.30)
    Seat 4: telica77 ($44.10)
    Seat 5: grapsfan ($88.50)
    Seat 6: kdiddy96 ($154.10)
    thalia12 posts the small blind of $0.25
    telica77 posts the big blind of $0.50
    The button is in seat #2
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to grapsfan [Qs Tc 9h Jh]
    grapsfan calls $0.50
    kdiddy96 folds
    jmujake folds
    PJPHIL folds
    thalia12 raises to $2
    telica77 calls $1.50
    grapsfan calls $1.50
    *** FLOP *** [Th Qd 3h]
    thalia12 bets $6
    telica77 raises to $24
    grapsfan has 15 seconds left to act
    grapsfan raises to $52
    thalia12 calls $3.30, and is all in
    telica77 calls $18.10, and is all in
    grapsfan shows [Qs Tc 9h Jh]
    thalia12 shows [Kc 2s As Jc]
    telica77 shows [7h 9s Ah Qh]
    Uncalled bet of $9.90 returned to grapsfan
    *** TURN *** [Th Qd 3h] [Js]
    *** RIVER *** [Th Qd 3h Js] [8h]
    grapsfan shows a flush, Jack high, for high
    telica77 shows a flush, Ace high, for high
    telica77 wins the side pot ($64.25) with a flush, Ace high
    thalia12 shows a straight, Ace high, for high
    telica77 wins the main pot ($32.25) with a flush, Ace high
    No low hand qualified
     
    Thread Starter
  7. Marky_Crash Marky_Crash is offline

    United Kingdom

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    Joined: Jul 08

    Apr 9th, 2011 (4/9/2011 3:33am) in reply to grapsfan

    UTG id fold here without much thought , i mean even if you outright flop the flush its hard to get any real value as you should only get action postflop from hands that are beating you so extracting value postflop will be a real problem.

    Id actually fold this on the BTN for the same reasons and would only be playing this hand out of the blinds.

    As played id be happy getting it in with thalia all day long , your easily ahead of his range with his stacksize on this flop and i agree he could easily have naked aces , he could obviously have the flush draw with the aces too but im not going anywhere on the flop versus his stack.

    However obviously telica repots it and causes the dilema , i think its a very easy fold on the flop TBH i mean you say both are regs im guessing telica appreciates you have a large stack behind him so hes letting you know hes strong and i would really put him on a set here (possibly with flush outs) i know he could be isolating light but i really dont see it and think the vast majority of the time he has a pretty huge hand.

    I think a lot of the time your going to be screwed both ways (verses better FD and a set) between the 2 of them and your only invested for a couple of bucks so id sigh/fold.

    PS i havnt looked at the outcome not really interested in being results orientated ill look after this post.
     
  8. MookMonster MookMonster is offline

    Manhattan, NY
    United States

    Posts: 5,170
    Joined: Oct 05

    Apr 9th, 2011 (4/9/2011 4:20am) in reply to Marky_Crash

    im a reg. o8 and i dont think im ever folding there....

    You are prob ahead but do need to fade some outs.

    You also have them both covered by alot so you may loose only half ur stack to win a nice size pot.

    Im calling it all in there...
  9. garyak1 garyak1 is offline

    Grande Prairie
    Canada

    Posts: 716
    Joined: Sep 06

    Apr 9th, 2011 (4/9/2011 4:30am) in reply to MookMonster

    I fold pre but would have put thalia on nut fl and telica on a set - most likely 3s cause jjxx and qqxx are unlikely starting hands and u have one of each but jja2 and qqa2 could be possible starting hands, I would think yur fl was no good - i think i fold the flop too but real close.
  10. doc793 doc793 is offline

    Clio, MI
    United States

    Posts: 192
    Joined: Apr 06

    Apr 9th, 2011 (4/9/2011 4:53am) in reply to Marky_Crash

    As the cards lay you made the right play. You had 34% equity overall in the main pot and 58% in the side. Easy call looking at the cards. You did get it in good. Well done.

    Telica pushed a little lighter than I would have imgained. In his spot I understand what he did. Think I would just call there and try to get you to come in. Didn't think of top pair/nut flush draw for him.

    Looks to me that you were in an almost best case scenerio here. Not quite. They could both be push the broadway wrap without the flush draw. That would clearly be the best.

    Played around with the a odds calculator and it seems for the likely villian cards you are going to be a slight +ev or a big -ev. Not a good situation to be.

    Overall I still have to say it is a fold though.
     
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