Considering gags stack Moorman is flatting high suited cards (mostly broadways) in pos.
I would say 9ts plus but 89s isnt out of question, he might consider "repping" high cards on flop anyway so calling with 89s or 78s might not be out of question (with the plan on floating some high card flops or just betting if checked to). he also might have low pp just to hope that some of the blinds completes as well and hoping to being multiway with a set in position.
Nontheless I think his most likely range is 9ts plus.
If checked to on turn he will bet all his floats, if gags flats I think he will give up on most rivers just because gags is a good player and he knows gags knows that he rarely has str8. Its also a cool call cause we have qt and moorman has alos lots of q s do he is drawing pretty thin with his expected range. Call turn prob folding river or calling if OI.

 

Originally Posted by funnygut

Some seriously illogical responses itt.

What could check/shove on flop possibly accomplish? He will call with every hand that has us beat, and will fold out a bunch of air from his range that we have reason to believe he'd be willing to float and get tricky with later given our history if we bet flop.

Betting turn simply because we don't know whether to check/call or check/fold is ridiculous too. All betting would do is again narrow moorman's continuing range and miss more value from air.

As to the turn and river, seems like most 8x hands in his range raise flop, as would any flopped 2 pr probably, so I think both streets are a check/call given that moorman is as capable of having absolute 0 as he is.

I dont see flatting moorman down here as very good. First you're letting him peel two cards on a draw heavy board that hits his range hard and he'll be owning us a lot and we are basically guessing as to where we are . At least the c/s flop outright ends the hand and sure we are getting called by hands that beat us but there is a lot of medium strength hands that moorman will have a tough decision. If we had a stronger hand like 2p I could see betting flop then check calling down but I think the majority of times moorman will b/f this flop greatly outweights the times when he actually has a hand and when he actually does have a hand you're theoretically c/c down anyways so ur getting stacked either way. I dont see anything wrong with c/s flop with top pair and a medium kicker against a highly aggressive player who is aware of his image and has the ability to call our shove with a lot of pair draw combos. I dont see it as a bad play to just end the hand on the flop even if he's betting the flop with air it's not like we have a super strong hand that isnt vulnerable to his range.

Let me preface this by saying I have not read anyone's responses, just Gags' original post. So if I'm retreading over anything that's been mentioned before forgive me.

One thing that frustrates me with this hand is its really hard to define Moormon's flatting range. He typically is a threebet/get it in player, and you've certainly proven to him you're willing to fourbet light, so yes, most players of this type would be threebet/getting it in with the range you have described. Since Moormon came up as the crazy multitabler winning triple crowns every couple of weeks you know his game had to be preflop intensive. It's very difficult to to 20 table and flat a bunch of 10-7 suiteds in position and play postflop.

However, with his considerable live success as of late, he's been working more with deeper stacks and having more time to think through each hand. Perhaps live he has been working on flatting players and putting them in difficult spots.

The fact he is even flatting versus a 30 BB stack surprises me. Often I see him just 3bet or fold versus that kind of stack's open. Perhaps this is evidence he could be flatting as wide as one gappers.

Then again, my database on him over several thousand hands shows he does not like to call opens from any position, so perhaps his calling range is just the suited connectors and unsuited broadways.

Then again, he's probably paying a little more attention to this table because you are deeper.

Then again, then again, then again...

Another thing that complicates his flatting range to me is that I think a good regular, as Moormon undoubtedly is, will know when a person is not going to fourbet light a second time. So while of course he'd still be wanting to get it in with the top of his range, perhaps he doesn't think a hand like 7-7 is going to be getting fourbet into enough to make it an automatic 3bet/call. In my perception Gags30, and this is admittedly derived from a small sample of hands, is one of the more careful regulars. I don't see him just fly off the handle fourbet off crap here all that often, especially versus a good regular who is anticipating it.

Looking at my database you run nittier than many regs, so I think Moormon might not believe you're going to fourbet wide a second time.

So maybe some hands like A-10 or 7-7 will be in his range as well.

Going back to the one-gappers and maybe even the two gappers like J-8 suited...I think this is an excellent spot to flat them. From your stack size and position in the hand you can make a continuation bet fairly comfortably, but on the turn your options become more stressful. A double barrel will put you into a more crippled stack territory if you are wrong, and also you will be getting a good price facing a shove on the river. Many MTT regulars seem to have made a profession out of avoiding difficult decisions, so they'll never double barrel this turn without the intention of shoving the river. So, they check a little more than usual on the turn, and give up a little more often not wanting to face the river shove they will often face. Not saying this is you Gags, but something I've generally observed in MTT regulars. Perhaps Moormon shares this view. Maybe not. I don't know.

It's also uncommon for MTT regulars to get flatted from this stack by regulars, so their discomfort level might be higher. When a player is stressed he goes to his default play. I believe Gags is careful, and therefore finds a fold more than an aggressive double barrel.

Kasspav in my limited experience with him seems to favor threebetting when in position, so I don't think we'll see a squeeze from him. That's more evidence Moormon could flat wider. Kasspay is really the player with the stack to make a play here, so it's him I'd be more worried about...and I'm not all that worried here in Moormon's position. Kongen doesn't really have the stack to 3bet or shove light, so I don't think Moormon will have to worry about him either.

Anyways, that was my longwinded explanation about why I'd be worried about a wider flatting range.

I say this because once we get to the flop I think the majority of Moormon's holdings have hit this more firmly than you have. If you throw in the two gappers there's more straight/two pair combinations. While I worried previously about 6-6 and a 7-7 being in his range I think he would've raised those on the flop.

This turn would be easier to play if Moormon was a pot controlling player who doesn't like to bet/fold two pair combinations on this board, for fear of getting bluffed off. I have him betting in position versus a missed c-bet 68% of the time. He's a great player, he will be balancing that tendency by value betting thinner. He can't be betting all those times with only the nuts or air.

I think your best case scenario here is that he is betting with a draw. This is not a board I think he'd flat without any real equity...underpairs or overcards without straight draws. I think he will bet there with diamonds often. His draw is going to miss the majority of the time on the river. He's not going to depend on a card peeling off. He is more likely to combine his drawing equity with the likelihood you'll fold on this scary board, as you are a thinking player who will not call here without a plan for the river.

Even when he is bluffing he has 18-25% of a chance of besting your hand by the river, depending on how many pair outs he has. He's capable of value betting thinly, and most of what he value bets here is beating your hand.

If you call turn you are also depending on having an opponent who cannot bet the river wide. Moormon is not that player. While his river aggression frequency is not the highest on my database, I assume he is paying more attention to his deeper runs. His river aggression frequency is actually 13% on my database, which is low, and typically not a player who bets missed draws. You typically need 25%+ river aggression frequency to see missed flush draws all the time. He also has a high went to showdown percentage, which means he tables a lot of two pairs.

Still, I think the majority of those hands, actually almost all of those, probably came when Moormon was playing a ton of tables and not playing against players he knew so well. There's a lot of value for him to play a more standard game until he gets deep, and then he can turn on what's helped him cash for $10,000,000+ over the last few years. He is more likely going to be playing his lights out poker in this deep run. He knows you are a more solid player and capable of making larger folds, so he will be bluffing more. He also has more combinations he's value betting when he is more focused.

I think you have to check/fold here on this turn, because I don't believe he checks back the river enough with hands that you beat, and you can't call a river bet with your holding.

I think you played the hand fine if you check/folded turn. I like value betting on the flop and check/calling turn if the turn is a blank, getting value from flush draws+pairs, flush draws, pair+ straight draws. If his bet in position versus missed c-bet were lower, as it is with many regs, I would value bet myself because I don't think he will bet those hands, but instead would take the opportunity to see the river.

Turn just hit his range solidly, making double barrel unprofitable as a bluff or for value, and a check/call unprofitable versus most of his range and his likely course of actions with that range on the river.

Rather than write my typical over-indepth response I'm going to have to say that versus Moorman I'd c/c and then c/c anything but a J, Q, K, or 8.... I just think his flatting range is most likely going to include two weakish broadways more often than suited connectors versus a player like you. And, although i do think he would bet 2 pair on the turn, I believe he would also raise all of those 2 pairs on the flop. Also, all of his 8x hands would have a pair and an oesd and I assume he'd raise those hands on the flop as well. T97dd isn't the kind of board people slow play strong hands on therefore I think his turn bet is most likely a floated KQ or QJ or something super random.

He could even be flatting much wider and turning all kinds of garbage into bluffs. I think the fact that he raises all strong hands and 8x hands on the flop should make this a prime time to bluffcatch/call down.

Edit- would like to say that I haven't read any responses and I haven't given the hand tons of thought but my first instinct is bluffcatch. That being said, moorman is one of the few online players who has really given me trouble when I bluffcatch him. He's a tough one.

I think when you said he knows that you never have the str8 when you check opens up his range even wider. You have the history with him and know him well, but it sounds like he bets 100% of the time there with position, the stack, and the scare card. Granted, that's about the ugliest card to come off for you and is a mind f*** which makes me feel it's a better card for him to rep as opposed to an A on the turn. Especially since your check is saying I don't have the str8, and you hate the middle of the deck board texture. It's a perfect scare card then and he may be putting you on bigger cards. It's a rough spot but callable. There's hardly a riv card you will love without it coming super lower or pairing up your hand again. If you feel good with your stack size after a possible call and riv fold if it comes even uglier I think you should look him up.

 

Originally Posted by the_dean22

He always puts you in weird spots, that's why he's the greatest. Think you gotta c/c turn, c/c river against Chris or any other tough aggro villain in this spot. Dunno how he can ever have an 8 here (like you said 88 3b/calls pre, and as Tyson said, all of his hands containing a lone 8 would raise flop)

I do however think it isn't as cut and dry as with most players that he either has a set or an 8 when betting this turn. Moorman is good enough to take u to two streets of value town with KT/AT here while many others might chk back turn and/or river with those hands.

Looking fwd to seeing the results on this hand :)

don't know if he really goes for two streets with KT/AT here, i can see maybe one street but two seems a little spewy, even your bluff catching range on the riv is pretty close here to KT/AT and will often have it beat (assuming we're pretty much c/c'ing almost every single river here with better than those hands). i know he's spewy but it just feels like he's wasting those hands by going after a river barrel if the worst we can c/c two times here w/ is QT/JT.

i kinda agree w/ the consensus it's either c/f and feel like a pussy or c/c and just cover our eyes. he's clearly capable of turning worse into a bluff on two streets here so i don't really hate it, but i also don't particularly hate letting him bluff us if the table/tournament is pretty soft. i haven't played the 50rb (or for that matter vs moorman since this past wsop but i assume he hasn't really changed) because i uhh live in the united states (bleh) in forever, so i dunno and i don't recognize anyone else here. it's a minor point though because i kinda like c/c and just live with it, it's f'in moorman and feel like most of you have his range in this spot pretty close to right, and the type of hands he'd turn into bluffs as well.

This is the perfect board to play in position: Moorman might have made his straight, a set, an open ender, flush draw, 2 pair, 1 pair, or have complete air. With a set, flush draw or 2 pair, he most likely re-raises the flop. This leaves him with a straight, open ender, 1 pair, or complete air.

Now when the turn hits, he may have improved to a straight or 2 pairs. At this point, Moorman is probably 95% sure that you don't have a straight and that you are also worried about the flush draw. I think Moorman bets this turn with anything after you check to him.

If you bet the turn hard (65%-85% pot), I think it indicates hands like JJ+. And if Moorman decides to come over the top (which I think he might do with any piece of the board), he will probably still take it down. Unfortunately, you do not have the chip stack to fight off his aggression.

Once the flop is called, you are pretty much dead in your tracks (unless you re-raise the turn all-in and pray he has nothing). One thing you could have tried, is to check-raise the flop big to see if he really wants to continue with his hand.

Gags shoved turned, moorman called with QJdd, river bricked, nh gags