1. OP really blows the recession thing out of proportion imo.

    But, the average player is definitely improving. It's just becoming more and more important to constantly improve your own game. If you're ahead of the learning curve, you can't just sit around stagnant or yeah, you'll fall behind. But, poker's still going to be profitable for quite awhile if you can think on a level one step higher.
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  2. If I were an American I would be much more concerned about depositing and withdrawing through US banks.

    Thankfully, I am a Djiboutian from Djibouti, so I don't have to worry about that.
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  3. This is why I would never dream of trying to play professionally unless I knew that I could make so much $$$ over the next couple of years that it would be worth the damage to my future career, business, etc.

    Anyone who is dropping out of college or quiting a good job to play poker these days so that they can grind out a high 5 figure or low 6 figure salary is taking an unbelievably gigantic risk with very little return unless they somehow get a lot better at poker or something happens to rejuvenate the number of fish out there for the long haul.

    It is pretty scary that, not counting weekends, even at a .25 .50 online cash game a table of 9 will routinely have 4 or 5 solid winning regs, and maybe 1 real major donk if you are lucky. 5 years ago you could sit at a $2$4 game and it would have maybe 1 or 2 winning regs, maybe 2 or 3 breakeven nits, and 4 or 5 money spewing donks.
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  4. "Please someone convince me im wrong............"

    I like your analysis, and you definitely make a lot of good points, but
    I think you're missing two important points which might make things
    less scary....

    1. The economy can (and will eventually) turn around. The stock market
    has already made a sizable rebound. I'm sure the folks back in the 30's
    during the Great Depression thought things would never get better. Well,
    guess what? It did get better.

    2. No doubt the higher limits are getting much tougher, but the low and mid
    limits will always be filled with fish. I've been playing micro and low stakes for
    three years now and I haven't seen the overall quality of play go up that much.
    Some markets in the world haven't even seen their poker boom yet. Russia
    saw a recent boom, and that recently infused the game with still more fish.

    Again, a lot of your theory makes sense, and you obviously put a lot of thought
    into it, but it makes some assumptions that are incorrect, imo.
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  5. I think that its clear that the Key thing that needs to happen is for online poker to be legalized and regulated in the US, AND for the government not to put some kind of outlandish monster tax on poker income. No point having more fish online if you have to pay a 30% gambling tax on top of your regular income tax everytime you withdraw money.

    If the game is legalized, then it's just all up to the online companies Marketing the game. Can Party Poker, Stars, FTP, Cake etc market poker in a way that actually attracts new players to the game itself instead of just fighting with one another over the people who already play poker.

    If I were one of those sites I'd focus some of my advertising on trying to attract "gamblers" instead of exclusively selling to people who consider themselves "poker players". Show commercials with guys who just won some huge tournament , going out and spending their huge winnings, and living the dream etc.... Thats how they can bring the gamblers back to the poker tables and though I know it sounds bad, traditionally its always been the gamblers that made poker highly profitable for the real poker players.
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  6. Marketing 101...every new/emerging market goes through 4 stages.

    Introduction
    Growth
    Maturity
    Decline

    2 cents
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  7.  
    Originally Posted by toastynuts View Post

    Marketing 101...every new/emerging market goes through 4 stages.

    Introduction
    Growth
    Maturity
    Decline

    2 cents

    this product is renewable in that it is a competition between people. every generation is going to have its competitors to fill the void of the previous ones...
     
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  8. Meh, all of this could happen, but you could also be an optimist and think... hey if we develop a cheap and efficient energy source the money will rain down like at the strip club in a hip hop video.

    Also, if everyone starts playing unexploitable poker, yeah it's time to start looking for a new job unless you're one of the best at running good, tilt control, and BR MGMT.

    You probably don't need to worry about that though, there's still plenty of really bad players out there that think they're awesome, enough that a mediocre player can make a living imo.
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  9. foutight, ur a fishcake
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  10. A+ post. I'm scared of exactly the same things Fou. I really do think the edges are substancially lower than ever and having a backup plan is a neccesity. I've heard talk of a second poker boom from overseas but who knows. FOL

    Edit: at least mid-stakes will always be juicy.
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  11.  
    Originally Posted by pikappraider78 View Post

    huh? tilt just raised gurantees like a week ago. stars lowered theres monthes ago and have been crushing gurantees since the new late reg. cake has bee nadding tournaments and gurantees also

    this!

    also, u do make some good points in the op. however, I could not disagree more with the lack of fish / new players on poker sites. i live in hong kong and, therefore, play the early server time tournaments after work. you have no idea how many terrible euro / asian players are joining the tournaments and playing brutal poker. furthermore, poker has yet to really boom in asia. however, with the introduction of the appt and pokerstars-sponsored events / card rooms left and right in asia, poker is bound to catch on.
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  12. The whole world IS fucked... It will never return to what it was like in the summer of 69


    LOL, and fyp.
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  13. some valid points but OP is way too emo. Pokers getting harder, and the saying "if you're not getting better you're getting worse" is more true now than ever but no limit is a long long long long ways away from being unprofitable, not to mention the fact that other games couldnt be softer right now (so ive heard) and live games are at least 5 years behind online games. Dont let your imagination run too wild.
     
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  14.  
    Originally Posted by WSOP Legend View Post

    furthermore, poker has yet to really boom in asia. however, with the introduction of the appt and pokerstars-sponsored events / card rooms left and right in asia, poker is bound to catch on.

    This is a good point. Do you think the major companies like Full Tilt/PS will be able to operate freely in the major markets like China and Indonesia? That would sure make up for the missing US market. Is Japan already open?
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  15. i dont play mtts but most sng regs are lol bad.. the key is to ot play like the training sites tell you how to. think of your own system
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  16. US regulation and licensing is all that is keeping the floodgates from bursting wide open once again IMHO
     
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  17. Better to expect the worst and be pleasantly surprised imo , and this is sorta the strategy im going for.

    Fun story... when I was in cancun in june 08 I met a head programmer for a new poker engine he was building. Kinda crazy coincidence that the group of people I decided to talk to in line at the restaurant (and ended up joining them for dinner) included a head programmer for a poker engine.

    Anyways, i asked him about the (then) upcoming recession and how it would affect the online gambling industry and he wasnt phased at all. He mentionned (like you guys did) that gambling tends to go up during times of recession and he also confirmed that the online gambling industry was projected to grow for a very long time. The growth he was talking about was about the business of running a online gambling site and not necessarily how easy it would be for a player to make money , but it was still somewhat reassuring.
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  18. There will always be money at games like 2/5nl live if your just looking to make a decent- better than average living. Avg. joes won't stop playing that game, but if you play 40hrs a week and study the game, your going to have a big edge when there are playing once or twice a week.
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  19.  
    Originally Posted by allin4flush View Post


    This is a good point. Do you think the major companies like Full Tilt/PS will be able to operate freely in the major markets like China and Indonesia? That would sure make up for the missing US market. Is Japan already open?

    I really have no clue when it comes to Japan and Indonesia. However, major sites like Stars are definitely popping up. I know there is a card room sponsored by Stars in Hong Kong as well as in Macau. I've been to the Macau room a few times and it is definitely becoming more popular.
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  20.  
    Originally Posted by FouTight View Post


    The thing is , the more hurdles there are to getting $$ online, the more fish wont bother, but you can be certain the pros will find a way around it. Result = less fish, same amount of sharks.

    Result = less fish, MORE sharks, because the players who have always been great will be better and because the player pool is stagnant, those who once were good players will evolve into great players.
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  21. if the US clears up the grey area to the avg joe and legalizes it and makes it easier to deposit (neteller etc.), online poker will def surge again, but if u are a live tourney pro in europe, there is good news, because its apparently booming like it was 2003 again with the numbers of entrants and the skill level, so if your single and dont mind traveling, europe has soft action. but will sustain for awhile etc., but ppl just cant put up endless 5k+ tourney buyins in the US forever.
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  22.  
    Originally Posted by jtown1010 View Post

    there's still plenty of really bad players out there that think they're awesome,

    Atleast one less, I have finally come to terms with that fact that I basically suck at poker.
     
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  23. Less "pros" IMO. I think the game is dynamic & interesting enough to keep the fish coming into the game. I'm not worried because I have a job & other hobbies.
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  24. Speaking as a UK-based player, and one that's recently come back to the game after a 2-year break; I'm not overly concerned about the state of online poker in the next 12 months.

    As some of the previous posters have mentioned, there seems to be a continuing increase in interest in poker over here in the UK - I have a few ideas why this is happening, but mostly it's just a feeling:

    1) 2 years ago, if I spoke about poker to anyone at work, I'd get a blank "huh, what?" response. Now, it takes me about 20 minutes to organise a 9-player cash game at a weekend.

    2) The poker sites are being very clever in their advertising over here at the moment - a lot of it is timed to catch the current crop of 19-24 year olds, a lot of whom are university students with spare cash.

    3) I've noticed a slight improvement among some of the other players at the lower-limit games, but a bigger increase in the number of players with an outright "gambling" playing profile, rather than a poker playing profile. (By which I mean - 2 years ago, around 1 player in every 3 SNGs I played would open shove in the first orbit with a marginal hand and a full 75BB starting stack. Recently, that's been around 1 in every 2 $5 SNGs)

    Anyhow, that's just my SB...Good luck at the tables!
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  25. I've played online since 2003 and would agree with most of what Fou is saying. I'm a mid-stakes MTT player and in my experience the games are getting tougher with each passing year - common sense should tell us this is to be expected as the player pool grows in experience.

    I have already noticed some 'big name/online pros/grinders' playing at the lower limits - moreso than I remember in previous years.

    One thing I think is a major factor is the difficulty US players have in depositing/withdrawing from the poker sites. The net effect is a gradual decline in US recreational players and a higher core of US players who are 'pro' or at least winning players.

    I think Stars in particular realised this a while ago and have made efforts to introduce new blood into the poker economy by marketing heavily in Europe - EPT for example. Over the last two years I have noticed a huge increase in European players (German/French/Italian) and more recently Russia seems to be represented more frequently at the tables. I would guess the next move will be to develop the Chinese/Asian market.

    It is in the online sites best interests to ensure they continue to bring new markets on stream and as long as they continue to do that there will still be profit opportunities for the online 'pros'.
     
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  26. I think you have NOTHING to worry about. So your having a bad month and your not losing. Poker is here to stay, and will continue to be a way to make money for decent to good players. Sure the games have gotten tougher, so just play, your good and your results will still be +EV.

    Your pokerstars OPR says your ahead more now in OCT. 77K than you made all last year 73.3K ? What are you complaining about ? Your Gloom & DOOMish man
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  27. I just really believe that thinking and bringing energy towards these types of things can only increase its chances to manifest, for some people this may be a reality but if you make sure its not YOUR reality it will be fine, being scared and worried about it only increases the chances of it being part of your reality....
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  28.  
    Originally Posted by rock3656 View Post

    I just really believe that thinking and bringing energy towards these types of things can only increase its chances to manifest, for some people this may be a reality but if you make sure its not YOUR reality it will be fine, being scared and worried about it only increases the chances of it being part of your reality....

    rock seems to be an intelligent human being, if he is in fact human
     
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  29. Fou,

    I think your thinking about this somewhat wrong. The poker economy may shrink, but it won't collapse on itself. It could shrink rapidly for a bit (though, with the ease of online poker rooms offering cheaper tournaments, I don't think it's going to shrink to the pre Moneymaker days.

    Where you are making a mistake is your saying there are fish and sharks, and the fish are shrinking while the sharks remain the same. This isn't exactly true. As people who are fish today leave today, there is still the same percentage of fish, it's just that some people who were sharks (and could feast off those bad players) are now the bad players themselves. The big sharks eat them, and they are fine (Phil Ivey isn't gong to go hungry).

    So, where this is scary is, some guys who make their living now in poker (especially if it's a marginal living at the higher stakes) might be out of the game.

    But, poker has been around for a very long time, it isn't going to disappear in total.
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  30.  
    Originally Posted by rock3656 View Post

    I just really believe that thinking and bringing energy towards these types of things can only increase its chances to manifest, for some people this may be a reality but if you make sure its not YOUR reality it will be fine, being scared and worried about it only increases the chances of it being part of your reality....

    Cali metaphysicalness ftw...btw, sick score last night kid Rocco--#1 by X-mas imo
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