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Pot Odds question

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  1. ZorroZock ZorroZock is offline

    Palma
    Spain

    Posts: 4
    Joined: Nov 07

    Dec 29th, 2007 (12/29/2007 10:21am)

    <span lang="EN-GB">I have a fundamental question regarding pot odds. Perhaps I got something wrong from all the books. </span>

    <span lang="EN-GB"> </span>

    <span lang="EN-GB">I have two overcards on the flop (6 outs). I might draw to the best hand in about 6 * 4 = 24% of the time. If someone raises the pot more than a quarter, I should fold. If the pot is 400 and someone bets 100, that’s my threshold to get out.</span>

    <span lang="EN-GB">But now look at this: If someone bets pot size and I call, then I have paid one third of the resulting pot (original pot + bet + call). I only need to win 33% of the time to break even with such a call. Even 27o has a pot equity of more than that (against a random hand = 34,5%). Why should I ever fold to bets less than that ?</span>
    <span lang="EN-GB">Again, look at my first example: The pot is 400 plus 100 bet and plus 100 my call = 600. I only paid 100 to be in this 600-pot. That is 1/6 = 16,6%. My winning odds are 24%, so that should be an instant call. Or not ?</span>
  2. GAMEOF LIES GAMEOF LIES is offline

    Mentor, OH
    United States

    Posts: 265
    Joined: May 06

    Dec 29th, 2007 (12/29/2007 11:06am) in reply to ZorroZock

    whats your hand and whats the flop it helps to know before someone give you help on the hand
  3. rustypolano rustypolano is offline

    Daejeon
    Korea, Republic of

    Posts: 122
    Joined: Jun 07

    Dec 29th, 2007 (12/29/2007 3:11pm) in reply to ZorroZock

    There are 2 ways to think about pot odds, using odds like 2 to 1, 4 to 1 and what not or using % equity.

    If your odds in your case, with 2 live overcards on the flop you need to be laid 6 to 1 odds to hit your card on the turn. If your going all in then you only need 3 to 1 b/c you'll see the turn and the river.

    Meaning the pot needs to be 6 times as big as your call for the turn and 3 times big to see both the turn and river.
    For example. If the pot is 400 and some one bets 100 your getting 5 to 1 odds on your call. However if they beet 80 into a 400 pot then you get the odds to see the turn. If you only had 200 chips left here you might as well push b/c you'd get 3 to 1 (400 pot + 200 his bet and call + your 200 equals 600 pot to your 200 = 600:200 = 3:1)

    Thinking in terms of %s (what I do personally) then you add your call to the pot and divide the total pot then by your call. Pot is 400, he bets 100, you are going to call 100 then your getting 17% to see the turn (your call 100 divided by 400pot + 100 his bet + 100 your call ... 100/600 = 17%)

    So you said your winning odds are 24%, which is correct IF you go to the river with no other betting. In actuality your odds are only 12% to hit the turn, the betting lays you 17% which is a losing call or as they like to say a -ve expectation...

    I hate to say this but overcards on the flop is a bad example to use when talking about pot odds. you shouldn't be calling with only overcards except for special situations...
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