Why you will all eventually lose at poker!
Iím a very successful poker player who most likely everyone on this site is familiar with and have an instantly recognizable name. Iíve had appearances on the WPT finals and at WSOP events. Iíve also had big wins (and losses) online. You likely know me. But you may not know that I am one of many who are in the exact same position. While I could continue to do well and consider myself to be one of pokerís elite, I have seen the light. Do not be misled, the biggest names in poker right now are really making money through poker (books, endorsements, etc) and not by actually playing poker. The vast majority of even the top tier poker players have to be staked to enter tournaments, why? - Because they are flat broke. Most are already broke or will be soon. I too have won and lost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Do you really think you are better than these top pros?
Below is my rant regarding poker. And if you really stop and think about it, I think you will agree. Yes some people will win - just like some win the lottery. Yes - some will score big in a tourney or cash game and will use the money to purchase a tangible asset (real estate etc). But these are the rare exceptions; the vast majority of people who continue to play poker WILL eventually lose it all. It is inevitable - and here is why you just cannot win in the long run.
You basically have to overcome all of these obstacles to win in the long run.
- <LI>The number one reason why you cannot win in the long run is that Poker is a zero sum game - money just moves from one player to another in an endless circle. In the ultimate end, the house rake is the only constant and guarantee. The house will eventually have all the money. Why do you think the top professionals are starting to associate themselves with their own poker rooms, tournaments, casinos? They have realized that the house wins and the players lose. <LI>You will run into situations where you and one or more people are correct to risk all of their money and you will be the loser 50% of the time <LI>You will get sucked out on when you are a huge favorite <LI>You will need to bluff to win when the cards on not in your favor and you will be called <LI>You will get outplayed and bluffed on key hands when the cards are in your favor <LI>You will play against people who can afford to out-bluff you <LI>You will run into endless situations where you play it exactly correct and lose <LI>You will play against people who are better than you <LI>You will play against people with more experience <LI>You will play against people who get lucky <LI>You will play against people who are colluding and have an advantage <LI>You will play against people who are playing with stolen money <LI>You will play at times when you are not at your best and are tired <LI>You will go on tilt <LI>You will play against someone who is playing more focused than you <LI>You will eventually need to gamble to win and sometimes going in with the worst of it <LI>You will need to risk a lot in order to win a lot. The more you win, the higher stakes you will play until eventually you are back to zero. You will need to play above your bankroll. <LI>For online play, the possibility of the random card generator not being so random may affect the fairness of the shuffle <LI>For online play, the possibility of the sites ďjuicingĒ the flops to encourage action is there <LI>For online play, the possibility that an ďinsiderĒ (bot, employee, hacker, etc) knows the outcome of the hand before it is dealt and can take advantage is there <LI>For online play, the possibility that your account will get hacked and money stolen exists <LI>You will sacrifice other aspects of your life <LI>To truly be successful at poker, you have to be a big gambler, have to get really lucky, and then have to cash out. </LI>
Flawed logic in about 32894732984732894 ways.
The number one reason why you cannot win in the long run is that Poker is a zero sum game - money just moves from one player to another in an endless circle. In the ultimate end, the house rake is the only constant and guarantee. The house will eventually have all the money. Why do you think the top professionals are starting to associate themselves with their own poker rooms, tournaments, casinos? They have realized that the house wins and the players lose.
Does this mean people who deposit aren't adding to this zero sum?
Johhny bax disagrees
Oh maybe hes the 0.1%
Yes im the 99.9%
Someone had a bad day at the tables...
damn my calender is messed up i thought it was January.....
Wow...DrPhil posted at P5s...
Quick, someone call Doyle Brunson. After more than 50 years of providing for himself and his family playing poker, I am sure he will be crushed to find out it is all about to end.
Matusow is that you?
Ok, well thanks for the information, but a lot of your points either make no sense or simply do not occur. Thanks for your thoughts, but since I'm not going to live through infinity, I'll just try to be "lucky" and let my bankroll tell me when to quit.
1. If we let the cards do all the talking, then, yes, poker is a zero sum game, but that doesnt happen.
2. Not if you go in with the best hand more often
3. Yeah, but in the long run I'll win that pot
4. Ok, not if you know when to pick your spots
5. Yeah, sure it happens, but if you know your opponent you can minimize losses.
6. Yeah, but they'll also pay me off occasionally in a big way.
7. Fine, but you can minimize your losses.
8. Maybe so, but if I work on my game, someday I may be able to beat them. If not, then I can just go on beating the donks.
9. Not forever
10. Luck doesnt exist. You said it yourself, poker is a zero sum game.
11. Colluding will only get you so far, and with experience you can learn to recognize it. In reality, though, it isnt that big of a problem. Especially in tournaments.
13. If you're disciplined, you can learn to know when not to play
14. See above response
15. That doesnt make them better than me. Like I said, the donks are out there, all you have to do is find them.
16. Fair enough, you can't always have the best hand, you just have to deal with it sometimes.
17. Why do you need to play above your bankroll?
18. Even if it's not random, it's not random for everyone, therefore giving no one an advantage.
19. Yeah, if you knew anything about online poker, you'd realize that this is not true.
20. Do you really think that situation can occur? I suppose you think George Bush told terrorists to hijack planes and run them into the World Trade Center, dont you?
21. Yeah, that doesnt happen nearly as often as people think, it doesnt have to happen.
22. How does that make you lose at poker?
23. Not really, you can play a tight-aggressive style and try to avoid big pots.
Any other brainbusters?
Half the reasons basically say:
The other players are better than you.
I was gonna point out why all these reasons are wrong.... but petoria already did.
It's not Matsow.....he's won and lost millions, not hundreds of thousands.
It is true that most players lose in long run. How much have you guys won over your poker lives?
Is there no validity to the points made? Do the suggestions made by the "pro" leave no room for contemplation that perhaps there is some element of truth? Should a person be as risky with their future as they are with their chips?
Dr Jones? Lee Jones?? ^^
Just a few things.
1. This is just silly. Of course its a zero sum game. Some people win and some people lose. How does it follow that everyone loses?
2-3. Standard online bitching. We all know this.
4-9. Um, yes, probabably, but most players are so bad that these things won't happen very often if you are a decent player.
10. Yes. So? Presumably you get lucky now and then too.
12. Huh? Can't imagine many people with stolen money are playing very well with it.
13-15. These things are eminently controllable and a good player will be on the right end of these situations most of the time.
16. This is something that good players know and actually increases long term profitability. Part of poker is knowing when to gamble.
17. Well you don't have to play above your bankroll, its called discipline.
18-20. Please. Not again.
21. Again preventable stuff.
Look, I have no desire to play poker full time. I don't even play very often anymore because I've got other things going on in my life these days that take up most of my time, so this isn't a breif for a lifestyle I want to live. There are plenty of reasons not to play poker full time but lets talk about real issues and not a bunch of bitter, whiny, illogical crap.
"Any More Brain Busters?"
If you're really a known pro, and you truly believe in everything you've posted... why would you not tell us who you are? Or, do you know that alot of it is just plain silly, so you'd rather remain anonymoous?
A lot of what you post is, quite frankly, illogical, paranoid BS. Your post reads more like a propoganda piece for Gambler Anonymous... not a serious perspective from a seasoned pro.
The idea of a zero sum game is flawed. Before the rake gets all of the players money one person would end up winning the entire tables money or someone would have to reach into their wallets and reload.
This post is garbage. You're not a name pro, nobody knows who you are, etc, etc. I see right through your garbage, and so does everyone else. We've had posters like you before here---they may have even BEEN YOU. So a big pro would come on and try to give themself credibility by saying "you know who I am, you've seen me on TV," but not say who they are? Obviously they'd have to verify their identity to get the credibility you're trying to achieve. The only reason I haven't deleted this post yet is because I'm interested in seeing how many people tell you how full of crap you are. Falsely portraying yourself as someone you are not is one of the many reasons we ban users, of course.
Maybe you also are claiming that statistics are a made up thing? And any "pro" knows poker isn't a zero-sum game---it's a negative sum game! That's why all the talk about beating the rake. That's another reason it's so hard. Nobody here claims that everyone can win at poker, simply that some will. People who work really hard and are really smart win at this game.
I'm not into name calling, so I won't say what i think of someone who posts garbage like this. I will say it's completely unfounded, illogical, and ignorant, and that what's worse is that you lied about being someone famous and are too much of a coward to actually say who you are. Nobody here buys into your crap. Go somewhere else.
Great post Adam. These claims are likely the claims of a loser (either at poker or life), and are deeply flawed. Although these situations might apply to 90% of the poker playing public, it is downright ignorant to say that everyone will always lose. Posts 2-7 also assume that studious poker players will also adhere to these criteria at a percentage over 50% of the time. Every decent poker player knows that that is not the case. If you are getting your cards in consistently with the best hand, you will win at poker (assuming proper bankroll management). Not everyone can do these two things, and that's what the winning players feed off of, the general public's errors during play.
Take your fancy talking bullshit advice and get a life outside of poker, or learn how to play the game better. Simple. Even for a big name pro such as yourself. Which your name is what again? Oh yeah, you didn't have the gall to back up your illogical claims by providing your name. Fucking loser.
Well DRJONES, because Adam encouraged me to, I must say that you are full of crap. The only other point I was going to make, Apestyles made, so nevermind... GL with your continued BS, but please direct it elsewhere. -Sok
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