Check out our brand new Local Poker Communities! Get updates and interact with poker players in your area.
Visit the United States Poker Community | Visit the California Poker Community | Read more about the Launch of P5s Local

Probability Prob Bet

Reply to Thread
  1. Piloteg Piloteg is offline

    Miami, FL
    United States

    Posts: 82
    Joined: Oct 08

    May 1st, 2009 (5/1/2009 7:46pm)

    I just moved to Las Vegas and my roommate, also a poker player, and I have been making a few prop bets with one another.

    The latest one came up today: if four players each have a different pocket pair, what percentage of the time does at least one player make a set on the flop. We set the over/under at 45% and I took the over for $200.

    If someone who is math inclined can just confirm that this is how you'd get the answer:

    1 - [36 * 35 * 34] = 0.46089
    [44 43 42]

    I'd appreciate it
  2. goofy2485 goofy2485 is offline This thread sucks.

    Tucson, AZ
    United States

    Posts: 9,181
    Joined: Mar 07

    May 1st, 2009 (5/1/2009 7:50pm) in reply to Piloteg

    (8/44)+(8/43)+(8/42)=.558

    8 cards that make a set.

    44 cards unkown -1 after each card shown.
  3. rhinodash rhinodash is offline

    Las Vegas, NV
    United States

    Posts: 382
    Joined: Nov 05

    May 1st, 2009 (5/1/2009 9:21pm) in reply to Piloteg

    Sick hidden brag about moving to Vegas...
  4. j_farah j_farah is offline

    Mississauga
    Canada

    Posts: 2,388
    Joined: Jul 06

    May 1st, 2009 (5/1/2009 9:32pm) in reply to Piloteg

     
    Originally Posted by Piloteg View Post

    1 - [36 * 35 * 34]  = 0.46089
         [44    43   42]  

    This is right.
  5. MDG0RD0N MDG0RD0N is offline

    Posts: 401
    Joined: Dec 08

    May 1st, 2009 (5/1/2009 10:19pm) in reply to goofy2485

     
    Originally Posted by goofy2485 View Post

    (8/44)+(8/43)+(8/42)=.558

    8 cards that make a set.

    44 cards unkown -1 after each card shown.

    So if each player at a nine-handed table held a different pocket pair, then the odds would be (18/34) + (18/33) + (18/32) = 1.64, yes? Since 18 cards make a set, and there are 34 unknowns before the flop?
  6. goofy2485 goofy2485 is offline This thread sucks.

    Tucson, AZ
    United States

    Posts: 9,181
    Joined: Mar 07

    May 1st, 2009 (5/1/2009 10:24pm) in reply to MDG0RD0N

     
    Originally Posted by MDG0RD0N View Post

     
    Originally Posted by goofy2485 View Post

    (8/44)+(8/43)+(8/42)=.558

    8 cards that make a set.

    44 cards unkown -1 after each card shown.

    So if each player at a nine-handed table held a different pocket pair, then the odds would be (18/34) + (18/33) + (18/32) = 1.64, yes? Since 18 cards make a set, and there are 34 unknowns before the flop?

    Maybe I'm going crazy but that would mean that more often than not, 2 people would hit a set. But I'm probably wrong.
  7. chrispy2005 chrispy2005 is offline

    IL
    United States

    Posts: 988
    Joined: Oct 06

    May 1st, 2009 (5/1/2009 10:32pm) in reply to Piloteg

     
    Originally Posted by Piloteg View Post

    1 - [36 * 35 * 34] = 0.46089
    [44 43 42]

    this is correct. 1 - probability of none flopping a set
     
  8. EyeKnows EyeKnows is online now

    Posts: 6,646
    Joined: Sep 06

    May 2nd, 2009 (5/2/2009 12:02am) in reply to chrispy2005

     
    Originally Posted by chrispy2005 View Post

     
    Originally Posted by Piloteg View Post

    1 - [36 * 35 * 34] = 0.46089
    [44 43 42]

    this is correct. 1 - probability of none flopping a set

Reply to Thread

Similar Threads