So I am looking for some motivation to grind online, and am trying to see what sort of action I can get on this bet..

I am saying that I will win the 100 rebuy on stars, daytime or night time, over the course of playing 14 days online.. what will most likely happen is that I will play 6 days straight, take a day off, then play another 6 days straight, day off, and then play 2 days, to complete 14 days of playing the 100r daytime and night.

No chopping allowed, I have to win it outright...

Looking to get some decent odds, and willing to bet between 5 and 10k, possibly more depending on the demand I receive...

Oh and some background.. I have never gotten to 7 in the 100r in my life.. have played it probably near 50 times, maybe 60.

Let me know if anyone's interested.. since most of you hate me online, I'm sure a lot of you would love to take my money so here's your chance

what are odds?

A. I need at least 7 to 1 give or take...

B. I'm not taking small bets.. 500 dollars at least each bet, not interested in booking small bets for $10, etc.

Wouldnt you need your betters to not play against you?

 

Originally Posted by albari

Would only include the 100r at 2 and 8 pm (730 on sundays) on stars, nothing else..

Need a lot more than 3.5 to 1, that's nowhere near a fair price

How many runners is average over the 28 youde play?? I dont pay too much attention to rebuys i dont play, 300? 500? 1k?

there are some nights that the 100r barely gets over 100 ppl...

Agree. 4 - 1 seems about fair for this.

someone should figure the odds of any one player winning it over that period of time. bet it's a lot higher than 7-1.

 

Originally Posted by Riverhorse

someone should figure the odds of any one player winning it over that period of time. bet it's a lot higher than 7-1.

Seems easy

If you assumed all skill levels are equal and find the average # of entries divided by # of tournaments he will play

But I have failed almost every math class I have ever taken so people shouldn't gamble money based on my equations

pm me your aim and we can talk some #'s

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Originally Posted by Riverhorse

lol's

If the fields were assumed to be all equal in skill and he played 28 of them all with 100 entires. The odds of him playing all 28 and not winning any of them would be .99^28 which is .755.

Which means in lamen's terms, 75% of the time he played a sample size of 28 tournaments he would not win any of them.

So what ur saying is, you want to make a bet you prolly can't do unless variance is tremendously on ur side, just so you can make a lil bit...since u will be breaking even almost (unless you bink on a sunday). Cuz roughly 60 timesx300=18,000, and first in these is like <25k normally, except a couple days.

 

Originally Posted by funnygut

 

Originally Posted by 4sakenme

Much simplier way to figure this out. Assuming equal skill and average field size of 100, odds of winning any one tournament is 1 out of 100 or 1%. So playing x amount of tournaments means your chances of winning any one of them is the sum of your chances of winning one, same thing as (1%)x.

So if planning to play 26 tourney over a two week period, under these assumptions you should win this bet 26%. Soooooo your running way below expectations buddy. Self analysis time?

lol that is such bad logic
so, if i play 100 times, im going to win one.....hmmmmmm

ORLY?

its simple math kid, sorry if it's over your head.... open up your pre algebra book.

 

Originally Posted by 4sakenme

ORLY?

its simple math kid, sorry if it's over your head.... open up your pre algebra book.

So if he played 1000 tourneys there is a 1000% chance hed win one? lol Youre math is flawed.

 

Originally Posted by supra1988t

 

Originally Posted by 4sakenme

ORLY?

its simple math kid, sorry if it's over your head.... open up your pre algebra book.

So if he played 1000 tourneys there is a 1000% chance hed win one? lol Youre math is flawed.

you innumerate(yes this is a word, should learn what it means) mofo's tilt me nearly to death, why is it so hard to bend your brain around this concept?

if he plays 1000, 100 person tournies assuming equally skill, expectation would be that he would win 10 of them!!!!!!!!!!!!! A 100 person tournament..... one person out of that 100 will definately win = 1% shot. Play two tournaments, two 1% shots....... Play 1000 tournament = 1000% chance. <holy applied math batman, you mean 1000% is actually possible?>

get it? if you don't, well at least cell phones come with calculators now so you can figure out what is 20% of a $100 dinner bill.