[suitedaces1012]

sitting around 31 of 51 right now with money paid at 45...table has been fairly tight as money bubble is approaching; blinds go up in 3 mins or so

thus with these dynamics and just over 10 big blinds is an easy push on the button here?

also, i always hear ppl say "you only need to win this x times out of x times for it to be profitable".....how do i figure this ratio out (my stack is around 20k and theres around 4k in the middle)

Full Tilt Poker Game #9442076914: $6,500 Guarantee (1r+1a) (71960180), Table 29 - 800/1600 Ante 200 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:52:31 ET - 2008/12/11
Seat 1: suitedaces1012 (20,717)
Seat 2: putUonTILTnow (15,443)
Seat 3: RomanHoman (34,865)
Seat 4: jesseryan1 (15,860)
Seat 5: HhCMotU23 (20,326)
Seat 6: adelabe (19,621)
Seat 7: HZMCONNECTION (17,791)
Seat 8: sigmachi293 (70,837)
Seat 9: socke169 (7,491)
suitedaces1012 antes 200
putUonTILTnow antes 200
RomanHoman antes 200
jesseryan1 antes 200
HhCMotU23 antes 200
adelabe antes 200
HZMCONNECTION antes 200
sigmachi293 antes 200
socke169 antes 200
putUonTILTnow posts the small blind of 800
RomanHoman posts the big blind of 1,600
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to suitedaces1012 [Jc 9d]
jesseryan1 has 15 seconds left to act
jesseryan1 is sitting out
jesseryan1 has timed out
jesseryan1 folds
HhCMotU23 folds
adelabe folds
HZMCONNECTION has 15 seconds left to act
HZMCONNECTION folds
sigmachi293 folds
socke169 folds
jesseryan1 has returned
suitedaces1012...?

[Deoxyribo]

idk the exact math but this looks like a push to me.

[NeverScaredB]

Shove. Not close.

[ABorges]

Push, not only you have a decent hand to do it, you also have a shorter stack whose calling range is usually pretty narrow and a not much bigger stack who is calling light either. I don't figure the ratio you're talking about, I just grew an intuition in these kind of spots, but with some pretty simple calculations you could get there. I really don't feel like doing math, someone will probably do it though...

[doubledave22]

unless u have like a really bad image or history where u think these guys will call light more than normal then yeah its a shove. to figure out the ev you need a few pieces of info. A) their calling ranges B) how your hand does vs their calling ranges. C) the % of the time ull pick up the pot preflop (due to their calling ranges). Then you calculate total ev by a bunch of math too lazy to explain right now maybe later.

[jsmanuel]

 

Originally Posted by doubledave22

unless u have like a really bad image or history where u think these guys will call light more than normal then yeah its a shove. to figure out the ev you need a few pieces of info. A) their calling ranges B) how your hand does vs their calling ranges. C) the % of the time ull pick up the pot preflop (due to their calling ranges). Then you calculate total ev by a bunch of math too lazy to explain right now maybe later.

^ This.

With given info this is a shove.

[Jennifear]

Push because:

- Those antes are REALLY fat! 200 antes at 800-1600 are large, and that's a consideration.

- Even though your stack is ~12BBs, your M is lower than usual because of those fat antes.

- putUOntilt might make a decision that keeps him in the money by folding a hand that should be a borderline call. Some of those hands might be Q9, K9, QJ, KJ, and MAYBE A9!

- RomanHoman might think that you wouldn't shove 12BB without a pretty big hand near the bubble and might call too tight as well.

- J9o plays okay against monsters, better than say, K7o does.

Puuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuush!