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Question about +EV / -EV{Kind of long} serious question though.

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  1. bigfatstub bigfatstub is offline

    Arizona City, AZ
    United States

    Posts: 1,237
    Joined: Mar 06

    Sep 23rd, 2006 (9/23/2006 11:52pm)

    This post has nothing to do with AJ or micon the icon on who would be +EV to bet on in a fist fight although I have not seen a good fight in awhile. Would be nice if they made it WWE style though,

    This is not a bad beat post, I may be a whining little bitch right now though. I would send a letter to UB but they would never respond anyway.

    I can thank bighems bacause of his post below. Everytime I take a beat I open this up and laugh my ass off.

    Here is the link if you need it:
    http://www.pocketfives.com/7669D51E-...DE4E7E277.aspx

    Ok here is the scenrio / Question.

    Is it ever +EV to fold AK preflop. I am able to do it. All my buddies I play with live are able to do it. However online it never seems to happen. Now I know I also wins chips/money with this. I used to think it was only AK that people cannot get away from. However it seems now it has gone down to AK-A9 and the biggest reason players give you is it was sooted. Oh yea KQ of spades is also the nuts.

    I played a tournament tonight where I picked up QQ in the big blind. Now it is a small buy in tournament and when I first see my cards I know I am going to get beat. Sometimes you just know. Which for me playing the hand then is -EV Right? However I played it anyway. Blinds are 30-60 and their is a raise to 210 then 3 people call and then a raise to 550 then another caller and its up to me. I push all in for another 5250 in chips and guess what everyone calls. Huge pot and after looking at everyones hand I was ahead. Here are the hands I am up against. AK, AJ, A6, pocket 10's, pocket 7s and another hand I don't remember right now I am trying to get HH. Well we flop a 7,4,2. I am pissed at this point but the person with pp 7's was a short stack so I can still win a huge pot. The turn is a 10 for a set of 10's now I can still win some chips until the river ACE comes and I am out. Now some of the details are skethy until I get the HH. But that is about right.

    So is it +EV to call with these hands. Obviosly my first thought is hell no. But maybe I am missing something. I don't mind bad beats. I really don't. I give them out as much as I get them. However I am able to lay hands down.

    Why do people have so much trouble with this. I am playing the wrong site's, the wrong levels, I play freerolls, to $50 buy ins. I do not keep a bankroll online anymore. If I want to play I put money in and if I win I take it out. I play for fun, recreational. In fact I have more fun on these boards reading than I do playing most of the time. I mean who doesn't enjoy a good read from Action Jeff.

    It seems to be more of an online problem then live. But I am probably wrong with that as well. If someone would answer some of these for me that would be great.

    Is it possible to lay down AK, AQ, AJ in an online tourney? Is it ever +EV? Or should I just instant call every AK I ever get from now on or maybe all they way down to A9? It seems to work for everyone else.

    Stubbby
  2. rivverkiller rivverkiller is offline

    White Rock
    Canada

    Posts: 6,352
    Joined: Feb 06

    Sep 24th, 2006 (9/24/2006 12:08am) in reply to bigfatstub

    In low limit tournies you will get calls like that. OMG shit happens. keep reading Hem's articles and don't worry about it.

    *EDIT* Yes it is +EV to fold AK, AQ, AJ. AK is the most overplayed hand in poker. 22 is a fav. against you!!! Please read some of the articles in the strategy archives before posting again.

    Rank Gigacock
     
  3. Davio Davio is offline

    Antwerp
    Belgium

    Posts: 505
    Joined: Sep 05

    Sep 24th, 2006 (9/24/2006 12:41am) in reply to rivverkiller

    AK gets more and more value the deeper you are into the tournament.

    At low limit tournaments, anything goes though.

    "It's a frickin' mine field!"
  4. Mort Mort is offline

    Schmargendorf
    Germany

    Posts: 265
    Joined: Sep 06

    Sep 24th, 2006 (9/24/2006 12:12pm) in reply to Davio

    He had an ace and a king in his hand. Therefore there's less chance of someone else having AA or KK . That makes it a must-call with AK. Yeah, if he had x-ray vision and saw that two of his outs were dead, he should have folded it. But then you should have had a time a time machine and known the case ace was gonna drop and folded pre-flop.

    This is a very sad story, but AK had to call. And if you had folded it, you'd have been the donk.

    He's almost certainly slightly worse then coin-flipping and getting almost 5:1.
  5. No1CeLtSfAn34 No1CeLtSfAn34 is offline

    Herndon, VA
    United States

    Posts: 867
    Joined: Aug 06

    Sep 24th, 2006 (9/24/2006 12:31pm) in reply to bigfatstub

    Not knowing you or the other players and not knowing how any of you guys play, I would have mucked the QQ. I mean there was an opening raise, 3 callers and then a re-raise. In my experience at my home games and my friends home games, that re-raise would be ONLY AA or KK. Obviously that wasn't the case in this particular game though. Also, I don't think that has ever been a 6 handed pot after a raise pre-flop in any of my home games. Overall I would say the play at this game comes across as VERY loose/aggressive and kind of "beginnerish". I maybe wrong, but that's what I am getting. Anyways...

    Now about laying down AK, AQ or AJ in an online tourney. While you are definitly right and it does seem that there are people who would prefer to give up their 1st born, rather than fold AK, AQ or AJ, there are definitly situations where they should go in the muck. I mean when you are playing at the higher levels, like say the Big Sundays or the Big Guaranteed MTT's, when there is a a raise, a re-raise and a call in front of you. That is definitly a spot where AK will go into the muck, esp. if the re-raise is from a solid player. I mean in the lower stake tournaments, like you said KQs is classified as the nuts. I have mucked AK many many times, but it is still very hard to fold, even after a raise, re-raise and another raise. I mean I have sean it go raise, re-raise, re-re-raise, call and seen the hands turned over and they would be 55 88 A10s AJ. I think it totally depends on the play at the table. There are times when it will go raise, re-raise and you will just know for a fact that your AK is buried. There are other time when it goes raise, re-raise and you will push all-in with your AQs, because you know it is the best hand. Well that's all from me.

    -B-
  6. bigfatstub bigfatstub is offline

    Arizona City, AZ
    United States

    Posts: 1,237
    Joined: Mar 06

    Sep 24th, 2006 (9/24/2006 7:05pm) in reply to No1CeLtSfAn34

    <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>Not knowing you or the other players and not knowing how any of you guys play, I would have mucked the QQ. I mean there was an opening raise, 3 callers and then a re-raise. In my experience at my home games and my friends home games, that re-raise would be ONLY AA or KK. Obviously that wasn't the case in this particular game though. Also, I don't think that has ever been a 6 handed pot after a raise pre-flop in any of my home games. Overall I would say the play at this game comes across as VERY loose/aggressive and kind of "beginnerish". I maybe wrong, but that's what I am getting. Anyways...</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
    That hand in question is not from a home game. It was from a online tourney that I had just finished. My home games are actually pretty good over all. Not begginerish as you put it. Anyway the hand was from an online tourney.

    Mucking QQ I should have done it only because I knew it would not hold up. It was a $20 buy in and I knew I was ahead {played with someone the people before and from imformation from the current tourny} but I also knew it was not going to hold.

    Anyway I still want to know why AK - A9 and KQ is the nuts preflop and why no one can muck it preflop.

    I also want to rant about why the case ace usually comes up online. Why even if you get KK you are only about a 20% favorite preflop if someone has an ace since their is an 80% chance that the ace wiill come up and you will bust.

    Maybe I am just a negative person.
    Stubbbby
    Thread Starter
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