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I OPR'd JLizard and watched his play and knew he was very competent. I thought his shoving range would be something like 22+,A5s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs+,A7o+KTo+,QTo,JTo (22.5%) because I thought i probably looked weak to him from my play the last couple of rounds and I thought he may think I could raise/fold in this spot.
I thought his range for calling a shove would be much smaller and after stoving it after the ft I came up with 9.2% - 66+, A9s+, and ATs+. Given my assumptions, I know raise calling is more profitable than open shoving when just considering chip ev.
I want to know what you think about my assumptions for his ranges and what I need to consider in order to adjust them. Also, am I incorrect in using just chip ev at a final table or should I be considering payouts and using ICM...because uhh, I don't have a firm understanding of it.
Assassinato wins this thing, obv.
pokerstars Game #23206601723: Tournament #128525511, $150+$12 Hold'em No Limit - Level XXIII (6000/12000) - 2008/12/24 3:07:13 ET
Table '128525511 83' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 2: JLizard (621442 in chips)
Seat 3: ShoeGirl69 (262835 in chips)
Seat 4: droniko (432693 in chips)
Seat 5: KWBubba (176524 in chips)
Seat 6: 10 UDR PAR (289783 in chips)
Seat 7: Assassinato (330183 in chips)
Seat 8: Felted_Good (188217 in chips)
Seat 9: Playaplzzz (290323 in chips)
JLizard: posts the ante 1200
ShoeGirl69: posts the ante 1200
droniko: posts the ante 1200
KWBubba: posts the ante 1200
10 UDR PAR: posts the ante 1200
Assassinato: posts the ante 1200
Felted_Good: posts the ante 1200
Playaplzzz: posts the ante 1200
Playaplzzz: posts small blind 6000
JLizard: posts big blind 12000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Felted_Good [9s As]
ShoeGirl69: folds
droniko: folds
KWBubba: folds
10 UDR PAR: folds
Assassinato: folds
Felted_Good: raises 19000 to 31000
Playaplzzz: folds
JLizard: raises 569000 to 600000
Felted_Good: calls 156017 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (412983) returned to JLizard
*** FLOP *** [4c 7c Js]
*** TURN *** [4c 7c Js] [8h]
*** RIVER *** [4c 7c Js 8h] [4s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
JLizard: shows [2c 2s] (two pair, Fours and Deuces)
Felted_Good: shows [9s As] (a pair of Fours)
Assassinato said, "gg"
Anbessa9 [observer] said, "doooooceeeeeeee"
JLizard collected 389634 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 389634 | Rake 0
Board [4c 7c Js 8h 4s]
Seat 2: JLizard (big blind) showed [2c 2s] and won (389634) with two pair, Fours and Deuces
Seat 3: ShoeGirl69 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: droniko folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: KWBubba folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: 10 UDR PAR folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Assassinato folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Felted_Good (button) showed [9s As] and lost with a pair of Fours
Seat 9: Playaplzzz (small blind) folded before Flop -
I'm not folding this button vs blind <20bb. You got what you wanted, just UL you missed. Raise folding would be kind of bad for this very reason. That's my .02 anyway.
EDIT: Assass pwns. -
Looks fine, I prefer raise/call over open shoving.
pretty standard night for Assassinato I must say -
Shove that shit in yo
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If you went through that analysis before making the decision than I think you are fully correct to raise/call. I don't like open shoving obviously vs. a competent player b/c like you said it does give him a chance to rr light and make a mistake. If you have made up your mind to r/c than I like your play. Vs a weaker player I would open shove, but as played I think you did fine.
I cannont comment on ICM calculations at a FT bc I never make them anymore. :( -
I didn't really read your reply because most of it is irrelevant considering it's folded to me on the button and Jlizard is in the bb. He doesn't have an opportunity to get anyone oop to do anything crazy because it is heads up. and lol at Jlizard wanting to induce a shove from another player in a spot like this with something as weak as AQo
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Just snap shove that shit.

Assassinato is an instructor at PocketFives Training . To get more of his advice and to watch his training videos, click here.
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Assassinato, why open shove instead of raise/calling when I'm almost positive my expected value is greater when I raise/call? Should I be giving more consideration to the fact that I'm sticking around in the tourney more often if I open shove? I'm more concerned with giving myself an opportunity to win the tourney than moving up a spot or two. I just want some insight as to why you're shoving there and with how many bb's are you specifically going to raise/call?
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shove, he isn't calling that with 22
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