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Question For gbmantis (or others)

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  1. LesW LesW is offline

    Boston, MA
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    Dec 14th, 2007 (12/14/2007 5:53pm)

    I am watching the replay and you laid down KJo on a jack high board after you opend from EP got flatted from the CO and c/r the flop then checked the turn and the river. The only hand I would put him on was JJ and now maybe 67 which you would consider not calling. Can you or someone else who has seen the hand talk about it plz?

    btw I understand the hindsight hole cards advantage etc etc, wondering if you also purposefully maybe threw away what you thought could be the best hand 50-60% of the time for other stategic reasons
  2. ucfchamp ucfchamp is offline

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    Dec 14th, 2007 (12/14/2007 5:58pm) in reply to LesW

    I saw this hand, I really think he thought he had the hand won. But folding up to the money was to hard for him not to do. I cant blame him. Also, I was really surprised he went all in with q10, I was shocked. He could have 3bet/raised and folded and still have almost 20K. He was live, and if he wins that hand, he wins the tourney, but Q10 I question, when he had enough chips behind him.????
     
  3. LesW LesW is offline

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    Dec 14th, 2007 (12/14/2007 6:06pm) in reply to ucfchamp

    I also think so not so much folding up to the money but just his overall equity. I think he looked at the table and didn't see any threats and decided to fold. I haven't got to the 20k hand yet...
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  4. LesW LesW is offline

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    Dec 14th, 2007 (12/14/2007 9:51pm) in reply to ucfchamp

    bumpy johnson
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  5. AFink93 AFink93 is offline

    Norwich, CT
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    Dec 14th, 2007 (12/14/2007 9:55pm) in reply to ucfchamp

    I hardly doubt Nick (Mantis) was folding up to the money.. Ever. That is all.
  6. amak316 amak316 is offline

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    Dec 14th, 2007 (12/14/2007 9:58pm) in reply to AFink93

    what did the other guy have?? i remember talking to mantis on aim about this hand and i def agreed it was a fold
     
  7. Schlik20 Schlik20 is offline

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    Dec 14th, 2007 (12/14/2007 10:07pm) in reply to amak316

    A9ss, nothing, a busted flush draw
  8. amak316 amak316 is offline

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    Dec 14th, 2007 (12/14/2007 10:15pm) in reply to Schlik20

    thats the thing, obv that guy is gonna have nothing a decent % of the time, but he overbet the pot, hes either gonna have it all or have nothing in that spot imo. the question is will he be bluffing often enough to make this a +EV call.

    given the situation that its early at the sunday million final table, still 8 (pretty sure there were 8 leftnot positive) left and the pay jumps are huge, furthermore its a random person at the biggest final table of his life. Will you expect him to be overbet bluffing in this kind of spot often enough for his tournament life on this big of a stage? I dont think its a good time for a hero call, just my opinion tho.
     
  9. LesW LesW is offline

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    Dec 14th, 2007 (12/14/2007 11:15pm) in reply to amak316

    reading your post you are almost saying that he folded what he felt was the best hand a good % of the time for a better spot. Think you are right I just wanted to be sure I was thinking along those same lines as he (winning player) was.
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  10. ucfchamp ucfchamp is offline

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    Dec 14th, 2007 (12/14/2007 11:29pm) in reply to amak316

    AMAK, but that did have missed draw written all over it. I agree with what you are saying. BUT, the way he was thinkin about it, I felt that he just knew he has the best Hand 90% of the time, but getting 8th in that tournament is just horrific. SUICIDAL.Your his boy, so you know better than me. What about his Q10 hand, I know making a play, isnt a bad thing, and sometimes you get caught. But too dump it in with out leaving yourself an out just seemed wrong. He can three bet, and then get out if he comes over the top. Just dont see the benefit of dumping. Third place is very nice though, and not hating.
     
  11. amak316 amak316 is offline

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    Dec 15th, 2007 (12/15/2007 12:39am) in reply to ucfchamp

    no its just a pot odds problem. I dont think the guys gonna be bluffing a high enough % of the time to make this a profitable call. hes getting < 2-1 on the pot so he has to win it at least ~36% of the time to be breakeven and i dont think the guy is bluffing more than 15% of the time on that board.

    KJ is the same hand as bottom pair for all intents and purposes, would you say its a good call with bottom pair long run? idk it might be on this board vs this opponent, but most people dont have it in them on a stage like this imho
     
  12. LesW LesW is offline

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    Dec 15th, 2007 (12/15/2007 1:04am) in reply to amak316

    Dunno, but some things didn't make sense, why didn't he re-reaise with QQ++ from the CO?
    Why did he check the turn? Then why not value bet the river if you have the best hand? I think the line he represented was I am making this look like a bluff hoping you call with top pr on the flop, but his gb's hand was too well disguised for villian to know he was that strong, and after the c/r .... hell idk - That is trouble because if the spade hits and he guy pushes that means he calls?

    Edit: c/r on a 9 high flop villian just calls Jack on the turn both check how is top pr just like bottom pr? It is not possible he thinks gb bluffed at the pot on the flop and he called him with TP then got scared by the jack and didn't bet turn? Wasn'tlike flop came jack high so bottom pr was the same as KJ imo if not plz explain amak316 thx
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  13. gbmantis gbmantis is offline

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    Dec 15th, 2007 (12/15/2007 1:09am) in reply to amak316

    Bleh.....

    Really tough spot. I basically had decided to give up on the pot once he called my c/r after calling my EP raise, I figured he was pretty strong. When I hit the jack on the turn, I thought I might be good, if he had like TT or 99 or something. When he jams the river like that, I know he doesnt have tt or 99, so he has either a busted draw, or he had a huge hand. I just didtn think it would be that likely that he'd have the sack to jam it with air there.

    He played it really poorly, he gave me a chance to be a hero on the river and busto him. So pointless to bluff it all in on the river, he should have just 3 bet all in on the flop with his nut draw.

    If the table was real tough, and I felt I would have trouble chipping up, I would have probably called, but I felt that the table was pretty soft and I'd be able to make something happen. I ended up getting the chip lead (2 different times,) just didnt end the way i wanted it to this time.

    Was pretty painful watching that replay lol.

    oh wellzzzzzzz
    1
  14. LesW LesW is offline

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    Dec 15th, 2007 (12/15/2007 9:35pm) in reply to gbmantis

    Thanks for the input mantis.

    wp
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