Check out our brand new Local Poker Communities! Get updates and interact with poker players in your area.
Visit the United States Poker Community | Visit the California Poker Community | Read more about the Launch of P5s Local

Question for you math guys, call or fold?

Reply to Thread
  1. JAAAAA!!!! JAAAAA!!!! is offline

    Greenwich, CT
    United States

    Posts: 1,889
    Joined: Jan 07

    Oct 10th, 2007 (10/10/2007 1:20am)

    OK, I have 10,300 chips at the start of the hand. The level is 200/400 25, and the table has all 9 players.

    It's folded to the cutoff, who goes all in for 1,600 total. It's folded to me in the BB.

    My range for the shover is any two cards.

    225 in antes, 200 in SB, my 400 in BB, and the 1,600 shove = 2425

    It costs me 1,200.

    I have 4 7 off suit.

    Call or fold?
  2. BarryGS BarryGS is offline

    Posts: 295
    Joined: Dec 05

    Oct 10th, 2007 (10/10/2007 1:58am) in reply to JAAAAA!!!!

    I think it is slightly + EV but I still think it is a fold. I used to call every time in a spot like this but I now want to get a little juice on my EV (if that makes sense). If I think I am a two to one dog and and I am getting 2 to 1 pot odds I used to called every time. Now if I think I am a two to one dog I want to get around 3 to 1, espeically like the situation you set up.

    I have been thinking about that a lot lately. If you're in the BB with 30 BB and some shoves a bigger stack and shows you KQ suiteed, do you call with your A2 offsuit? Your a 54-46 favorite and you would be getting a little odds on your money. I used say yes, easy call, its +EV. Now I say I think I fold and look for a better spot.

    I would like to hear waht others say about this. Am I over estimating my edge?
  3. UbiQuiToUs UbiQuiToUs is offline

    United States

    Posts: 5
    Joined: Oct 07

    Oct 10th, 2007 (10/10/2007 2:01am) in reply to BarryGS

    I like your reasoning barry.
  4. Shufly Shufly is offline

    San Francisco, CA
    United States

    Posts: 36
    Joined: Sep 07

    Oct 10th, 2007 (10/10/2007 2:09am) in reply to JAAAAA!!!!

    You're getting over a little more than 2:1 on your money and you are a 1.5:1 dog vs a random hand (guessing since his range is any two cards that a random hand will do) so that means call?

    I pretty much just want everyone to call me a donk, so...
  5. BarryGS BarryGS is offline

    Posts: 295
    Joined: Dec 05

    Oct 10th, 2007 (10/10/2007 2:25am) in reply to Shufly

    Diffantly not a donk reply. I though it was closer to 1.8 to 1, I just bought a new computer and I need to download pokerstove. If it is 1.5 to 1, thats definatly some EV juice. I am pretty sure you can make an arguement both ways here. I am in the middle of Bill Chen's book now, good stuff.
  6. darkcheck_ darkcheck_ is offline

    Costa Rica

    Posts: 5,007
    Joined: Jan 06

    Oct 10th, 2007 (10/10/2007 2:29am) in reply to JAAAAA!!!!

    wth do u think hes pushing ATC?

    you dont think he knows how short he is and he is likely getting looked up realllllll light?

    i prob just say fuck it and call
     
  7. WeWaysAwIn WeWaysAwIn is offline

    Posts: 1,479
    Joined: Aug 07

    Oct 10th, 2007 (10/10/2007 3:09am) in reply to JAAAAA!!!!

    I fold. The cutoff position he can wait 5 more hands before he has to shove any two. I'd put his range at 22+ A2+ K9+ JT based on experience of calling in this spot way too often.
  8. Raoeoiku Raoeoiku is offline

    Bolton
    Canada

    Posts: 293
    Joined: Aug 06

    Oct 10th, 2007 (10/10/2007 3:48am) in reply to WeWaysAwIn

    If you somehow knew he was pushing any 2, it would be an easy call. However, its unlikely his range is that wide, and its probably a lot closer call than you think. Vs most players I'd say you're probably not getting quite the odds you need, but its so close that you should take into account the affect it will have on your image.

    To me your image will benefit from calling, and be hurt by a fold, and its enough that its worth the close call on EV. Besides, if he is pushing a bit wider range, you'll actually be +EV, while its unlikely to be -EV by much vs any reasonable range.
     
  9. sharkzilla1 sharkzilla1 is offline

    Grand Blanc, MI
    United States

    Posts: 1,491
    Joined: Jul 06

    Oct 10th, 2007 (10/10/2007 3:54am) in reply to JAAAAA!!!!

    If you are for sure hes pushing 100% of hands then its a call. I dont think you could know this though that hes pushing exactly 100%.

    I checked some numbers to see where you are a 2:1 dog or better and basically its around if hes shoving more than 60% of hands you can call and take the small gamble for a good price.
  10. JAAAAA!!!! JAAAAA!!!! is offline

    Greenwich, CT
    United States

    Posts: 1,889
    Joined: Jan 07

    Oct 10th, 2007 (10/10/2007 11:41am) in reply to sharkzilla1

    I'm just looking for a mathematical answer, and for the sake of the exercise, his range is any two cards.

    FWIW, I took this straight from the hand history of a tourney that my friend was playing in last night ($55, 25K guaranteed). He folded, and AFTER THE FACT, I told him that he cannot fold there, and that I would have called with a 2 and a blackjack strategy card. He told me I was out of my mind, and there's no way he can call there with 4 7.

    FWIW part duex, AFTER the hand, the same guy open pushed even more BBs, and showed down 47 (isn't it ironic, don't you think?), so I think his range being any two cards on the first one is accurate.

    I'm really looking for a definative answer, like you ev vs. any two cards is X, any help?
    Thread Starter
  11. EddieO EddieO is offline

    Tampa, FL
    United States

    Posts: 1,635
    Joined: May 07

    Oct 10th, 2007 (10/10/2007 11:48am) in reply to JAAAAA!!!!

    I would call - you'll still have more than 20 bb if you lose, and you're getting more than 2 to 1 to call. His range should def be any 2 cards here - so you only need to be about a 32% fav to win this hand in order for the call to be accurate. Its not hard to figure out that your hand is def more than a 32% fav against his range.

    The odds are close enough that you could argue not wanting to call because you are potentially doubling up a short stack - but I make the call usually more than not.
  12. TheMayor TheMayor is offline

    Boston, MA
    United States

    Posts: 4,699
    Joined: Jul 06

    Oct 10th, 2007 (10/10/2007 11:53am) in reply to JAAAAA!!!!

    I'm really looking for a definative answer, like you ev vs. any two cards is X, any help?

    www.pokerstove.com might be able to help you out on this brain buster......
Reply to Thread

Similar Threads