doubt its a fold

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Ok I'm really confused. The fact that he has 11 BBs and they blinds are fixing to go through him in which he has no re-raise fold equity how is this not a shove. His 11 bb stack size and the fact that the blinds are about to go through him trumps everything else. Shove.

 

Originally Posted by darkhawk-200

in the sense that this is 100 FO and the guys don't think about your range?

Half the guys at the table are regs.

Let's say everyone assigns him the range of 10+aq+ and play accordingly. Thus he can raise/fold any two cards profitably. Thus raising just that range is exploitable. It's just a wide version of he only has AA in this spot.

What you said is that folding AQ here is exploitable, which would mean that Wandigo is taking advantage of the fact that you are folding AQ, which is just absurd because it's pretty absurd to think he'd look at some airball hand and be like "welp, everyones prolly gonna fold AQ if I open here, so lets goooooo"

Also after looking at the stacks at the table, there are a few ppl he'd be getting an insane price against to call their shove, and some people who are likely not folding hands like AQ/88 and possibly wider just because he opened with his stack size, so it seems even more likely he has the range he's repping.

I wanna start by saying i know im not ANYWHERE near qualified to make a judgement based on skill, i just wanted to throw out numbers and a muppet opinion...

 

Originally Posted by pikappraider78

I know wandigo is a reg and is fairly tight/solid. he is probably not raise folding his stack in this spot especially with the sizes behind. I think he open jams the weaker parts of his range some significant % of the time. I know at first this looks like a trivial shove due to how short we are etc but if you actually think about what he is opening to that size with that stack in this spot it becomes alot tougher. what do you do and WHY

pokerstars Game #35415919745: Tournament #219010857, $100+$9 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level X (300/600) - 2009/11/15 21:40:29 ET
Table '219010857 78' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Ocall (3417 in chips)
Seat 2: + to the EV! (20015 in chips)
Seat 3: ZSP-Shark (5736 in chips)
Seat 4: 00psiedaisy (10576 in chips)
Seat 5: joben19 (15385 in chips)
Seat 6: dirkdiggler9 (10478 in chips)
Seat 7: ksmergs (8090 in chips)
Seat 8: wandigo (10083 in chips)
Seat 9: raiderryan78 (6780 in chips) 1420 + 5360 more
Ocall: posts the ante 50
+ to the EV!: posts the ante 50
ZSP-Shark: posts the ante 50
00psiedaisy: posts the ante 50
joben19: posts the ante 50
dirkdiggler9: posts the ante 50
ksmergs: posts the ante 50
wandigo: posts the ante 50
raiderryan78: posts the ante 50
joben19: posts small blind 300
dirkdiggler9: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to raiderryan78 [Ah Qd]
ksmergs: folds
wandigo: raises 820 to 1420raiderryan78: ?????????<span> POT IF RAISED JAMMED: 4190 </span>
<span></span>

So since you only have <span>5360 to jam over the top of the pot that becomes 4190 (with youre 1420) He has 1.78:1 to call... Assuming hes calling 100% you would need ~45.5% equity which you dont get until you put his range at [88+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+] which i think is stupid bad if hes a good tight player (and thats still only a 4 chip gain) Making it an easy fold... </span>

<span>I may be wrong but i think the assumption that the small raise is that much stronger than a jam from EP w/ 16.8bb is a little bit simplistic, im only a $5-$10 donkament player but that seems a little beneath a thinking reg... </span>
<span> If hes folding even just 20% of his opening range you only need like 40% equity and if he folds 1/3 you only need a little more than 36% equity to break even, obvs making it a better play...

that being said i fold b/c there isnt a way (other than him folding A LOT) that its more than a few chips +ev... AND these are assuming that everyone behind folds everytime which is a stupid assumption (just made the math easier).
</span>

What I like best about this post is that now people are going to be making seriously nitty folds thinking that their situation is similar to this one

 

Originally Posted by pikappraider78

i have a theoretical question.... Im going to make up simple numbers for ease of the spot. lets say our stack is 7k and the blinds are 300-600. we do an equity calc and find that shoving AQ in this spot is -CEV by 300 chips. so the expected value of our stack is 6700 if we shove.

then we wait and get hit by blinds and antes and our stack is now 5900. we get in a different spot and lets say we just open shove from the cutoff with a wide range. we do an equity calc and find that is is +CEV by 600 chips. so our EV our stack is 6500.

does this mean its better to take the -ev spot with aq?

Im 95% sure that is correct... Like you said the value of youre stack is actually altered with each play and thus you would be losing chips in the long run by not taking smaller % with a larger stack...

I didnt think about this with the numbers previously... being in the blinds in three hands it would probably be better to take a slightly -ev situation than it would be to wait through the blinds and take a slightly +ev situation...
Wheres boku when you need him...? lol
In this situation tho, I still think that if he is r/c 100% of his range its a marginal at best of b/c of the tag player and the EP raise w/ <20BBs...
Doesn't mean that when Im short-ish and waiting for a hand i have the discipline to fold but even if behind only calls AKs, QQ+ one of the 6 yet to act wakes up with one of these 4 hands ~11% [1-(216/220)^6] of the time, taking away a lot of your rejam equity...

 

Originally Posted by pikappraider78

i have a theoretical question.... Im going to make up simple numbers for ease of the spot. lets say our stack is 7k and the blinds are 300-600. we do an equity calc and find that shoving AQ in this spot is -CEV by 300 chips. so the expected value of our stack is 6700 if we shove.

then we wait and get hit by blinds and antes and our stack is now 5900. we get in a different spot and lets say we just open shove from the cutoff with a wide range. we do an equity calc and find that is is +CEV by 600 chips. so our EV our stack is 6500.

does this mean its better to take the -ev spot with aq?

no cause anything that reduces ur stack is bad. ull have 6700 then hit the blinds opposed to having 7k and hitting the blinds. you cant think that far in the future i dont think unless its a really specific situation.

Dfish said everything i was going to! I'd get it in though, wandigo crabs a little

 

Originally Posted by pikappraider78

i have a theoretical question.... Im going to make up simple numbers for ease of the spot. lets say our stack is 7k and the blinds are 300-600. we do an equity calc and find that shoving AQ in this spot is -CEV by 300 chips. so the expected value of our stack is 6700 if we shove.

then we wait and get hit by blinds and antes and our stack is now 5900. we get in a different spot and lets say we just open shove from the cutoff with a wide range. we do an equity calc and find that is is +CEV by 600 chips. so our EV our stack is 6500.

does this mean its better to take the -ev spot with aq?

they're independent events. you shouldn't make a -EV move expecting to see a +EV spot in the future like this. who is to say you will ever get the opportunity in the next orbit to open push in a profitable manner? all you can do is make the best move at that moment in time.

of course there is the whole argument about making slightly -EV moves to set up metagame for the future, but that is irrelevant to your theoretical question.

because if you hit the minraise button it raises the blind which is 600. 820+600 is 1420.

 

Originally Posted by DFish

What you said is that folding AQ here is exploitable, which would mean that Wandigo is taking advantage of the fact that you are folding AQ, which is just absurd because it's pretty absurd to think he'd look at some airball hand and be like "welp, everyones prolly gonna fold AQ if I open here, so lets goooooo"

Also after looking at the stacks at the table, there are a few ppl he'd be getting an insane price against to call their shove, and some people who are likely not folding hands like AQ/88 and possibly wider just because he opened with his stack size, so it seems even more likely he has the range he's repping.

the question at hand is if shoving aq is profitable, it's profitability depends on wandigo's opening range. He has a raise/calling range, and a raise/folding range. If he is raise/folding, it matters 0 what he is opening.

Over the long run of the game, because of the structure of no limit hold'em limited by stack sizes, if u r folding aq to him with that stack size. It's not profitable.

If you have a specific read that his range is that tight, go ahead and fold, and it's probably I'm saying there is no reason to believe his range is that tight or he can't raise/fold with that stack. He may or may not know this, but whatever.

If you look at the game itself from an equilibrium perspective, if he knows you're folding aq, he can raise/fold anything. This is simple math, if people are folding aq and only shvoing 1010+ ak. Thus folding aq is not an optimal play in equilibrium from your perspective, and thus exploitable, how does that not make sense?

In th

 

Originally Posted by darkhawk-200

the question at hand is if shoving aq is profitable, it's profitability depends on wandigo's opening range. He has a raise/calling range, and a raise/folding range. If he is raise/folding, it matters 0 what he is opening.

Over the long run of the game, because of the structure of no limit hold'em limited by stack sizes, if u r folding aq to him with that stack size. It's not profitable.

If you have a specific read that his range is that tight, go ahead and fold, and it's probably I'm saying there is no reason to believe his range is that tight or he can't raise/fold with that stack. He may or may not know this, but whatever.

If you look at the game itself from an equilibrium perspective, if he knows you're folding aq, he can raise/fold anything. This is simple math, if people are folding aq and only shvoing 1010+ ak. Thus folding aq is not an optimal play in equilibrium from your perspective, and thus exploitable, how does that not make sense?

In th

Folding is never profitable, it always has an EV=0, the issue is whether or not the EV of shoving is >0 or not, which is simply a function of how often Wandigo is raise/folding (if ever), combined with our equity against the range with which he raise/calls (which is not gonna be better than 40%, and that is probably a good bit too high).

As I said, I don't have a great deal of history with Wandigo, and I am under the current impression that he is a pretty decent reg on the tighter side, which would mean that he is only raise folding here if for some reason he feels like game flow dictates that a steal is profitable from this position. I cannot judge by looking if this was his thought process at the time, nor if he would even attempt such a high risk play. As such, I can only make a decision based on the limited information I believe to be true, which would be that he is generally raise/calling his entire range of hands he chooses to play from this position with this stack size, in which case, we do not have enough equity to get it in, especially when considering the times someone behind wakes up with a big hand (albeit very rare).

Just becuase we are short, and have a hand we would generally be thrilled to see with this stack size, it does not mean there aren't specific situations in which we simply must sigh and fold, and this looks to be one of them.

However, if GrinderMJ's post is accurate, and Wandigo is in fact highly likely to get out of line here, then by all means get the pile in.