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The recent Hellmuth quartered in the Big Game and odds

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  1. Norhas00 Norhas00 is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 12:12am)

    Here is the video im sure youve all seen by now -
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ID8rap6LFVo

    Now I have a couple buddies in a debate about how high the odds or percentages are regarding this happening. One friend claims it would happen around 1-31,500 and did some really long statistical analysis to come up with that. My other friend claims its only 1-740, as his percentages go from 15%, to 10% on the third run, to 9% on the fourth run. Who is correct?
  2. OnTheBink OnTheBink is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 12:28am) in reply to Norhas00

    wow!...hadnt seen this actually. So sick...lol
  3. TiltinShoes TiltinShoes is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 12:31am) in reply to OnTheBink

    LOL, phil looked like he was going to puke on the fourth river... before it turns.
  4. watson5j watson5j is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 12:52am) in reply to TiltinShoes

    omg classic, love love loved that shit...and the fact that everyone was on top of his case the whole time was amazing!! lol
  5. Kiba52 Kiba52 is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 1:08am) in reply to watson5j

    hilarious when he does the dance
  6. yarbles yarbles is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 1:29am) in reply to Norhas00

    tony g is the man...
    439 
  7. The Spewtard The Spewtard is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 4:11am) in reply to yarbles

    Would have been funnier if it happened to Negreanu imo
    770 2
  8. grandmamoneybags grandmamoneybags is offline

    Atlanta, GA
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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 4:18am) in reply to The Spewtard

    dude the shoulder shake after winning the fourth one was so funny... epic
  9. StaySuckaFree StaySuckaFree is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 4:57am) in reply to The Spewtard

     
    Originally Posted by The Spewtard View Post

    Would have been funnier if it happened to Negreanu imo

    this
  10. Ace10Suted Ace10Suted is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 5:24am) in reply to Norhas00

    Ha! I had NOT seen that yet. That's freakin classic. I LOVE how all of Phil's peers are rooting against him so hard(except Doyle). That shit cracks me up so bad.
  11. crackofdawn crackofdawn is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 6:03am) in reply to Ace10Suted

    haha love how everyone ignores the question........me too
  12. TrueMetalMan TrueMetalMan is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 6:25am) in reply to crackofdawn

    bahahahah
  13. I JaNiSaRy I I JaNiSaRy I is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 6:40am) in reply to grandmamoneybags

     
    Originally Posted by grandmamoneybags View Post

    dude the shoulder shake after winning the fourth one was so funny... epic

    GIF please one time haha
  14. johnea6 johnea6 is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 6:43am) in reply to I JaNiSaRy I

    hahaha "i thought he had 10's full, that's how i think about poker"...
  15. viking13 viking13 is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 6:57am) in reply to johnea6

    "The bike is coming."
  16. jacksfull77 jacksfull77 is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 7:04am) in reply to viking13

    rofl, this was hilarious

     
    Originally Posted by crackofdawn View Post

    haha love how everyone ignores the question........me too

    LOL, forgot this thread was asking a question
  17. jimmycrackcorn jimmycrackcorn is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 8:11am) in reply to I JaNiSaRy I

     
    Originally Posted by I JaNiSaRy I View Post

    GIF please one time haha





  18. RaidenRadio RaidenRadio is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 8:24am) in reply to jimmycrackcorn

    brilliant!
  19. matze_widi matze_widi is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 8:25am) in reply to I JaNiSaRy I

     
    Originally Posted by I JaNiSaRy I View Post

    GIF please one time haha

    what does GIF mean??
    i lol´d so hard when everybody was rootin against philyboy
     
  20. rocksolid124 rocksolid124 is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 8:29am) in reply to matze_widi

    Negreanu deserves to be punched in the face fwiw.
  21. Acpittboss Acpittboss is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 8:34am) in reply to rocksolid124

    I love how everyone was rooting against Phill
  22. Kreuznagel Kreuznagel is offline Banned Troll

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 11:57am) in reply to Acpittboss

    That was too funny, but DN truly is a slimey faggot.
  23. Chavalo Chavalo is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 1:23pm) in reply to Kreuznagel

    They're both wrong.

    First trial = 0.15
    Second trial = 0.15
    Third trial = 0.10
    Fourth trial = 0.09

    (0.15 x 0.15 x 0.10 x 0.09) = 0.0002025

    You divide 1 / 0.0002025 = 4938

    So, the odds of winning those four trials in a row are 1 - 4938 approximately
  24. DOITDEALER DOITDEALER is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 2:36pm) in reply to Kreuznagel

    did anybody else notice how negreanu tried to talk with a little bit of a ghetto slang at the beginning like c'mon dude you're the whitest white dude there is just because you're playing with a black guy to your right doesn't mean you have to try to fit in as usual....

    also, every time i open one of these threads with a long poker clip I"m always like I'll never watch this whole thing and then sure enough I do, never fails.
    Edited By: DOITDEALER Jun 16th, 2010 at 02:36 PM
  25. Norhas00 Norhas00 is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 2:41pm) in reply to Chavalo

     
    Originally Posted by Chavalo View Post

    They're both wrong.

    First trial = 0.15
    Second trial = 0.15
    Third trial = 0.10
    Fourth trial = 0.09

    (0.15 x 0.15 x 0.10 x 0.09) = 0.0002025

    You divide 1 / 0.0002025 = 4938

    So, the odds of winning those four trials in a row are 1 - 4938 approximately

    But he didnt win all four, he won the last three....thats what i was wondering what the odds were for...
    Thread Starter
  26. The_Enigma The_Enigma is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 4:22pm) in reply to Norhas00

    For a 100k cash game it did lack abit of class from DN (one where he's probably not playing his own $). You dont see Doyle engaging in the same antics and I dont think you would see PA, Ivey, or Dwan doing the same thing either. I guess DN would be cool with high fives around the table when he lost a 575k pot on a 1 outer to Gus on HSP. Just saying for a cash game its below the belt, I cant stand Hellmuth either.
  27. bonflizubi bonflizubi is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 6:22pm) in reply to The_Enigma

     
    Originally Posted by The_Enigma View Post

    For a 100k cash game it did lack abit of class from DN (one where he's probably not playing his own $). You dont see Doyle engaging in the same antics and I dont think you would see PA, Ivey, or Dwan doing the same thing either. I guess DN would be cool with high fives around the table when he lost a 575k pot on a 1 outer to Gus on HSP. Just saying for a cash game its below the belt, I cant stand Hellmuth either.


    I thought Tony G was way more out of line yapping at Hellmuth with Doyle still to act after Phil in teh JT TT hand.
     
  28. Pezzo Pezzo is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 6:34pm) in reply to The_Enigma

     
    Originally Posted by The_Enigma View Post

    For a 100k cash game it did lack abit of class from DN (one where he's probably not playing his own $). You dont see Doyle engaging in the same antics and I dont think you would see PA, Ivey, or Dwan doing the same thing either. I guess DN would be cool with high fives around the table when he lost a 575k pot on a 1 outer to Gus on HSP. Just saying for a cash game its below the belt, I cant stand Hellmuth either.

    I would normally agree, but two things a little different here that a regular HSP type cash game and the hand with Gus you mention;
    1) the guy who won the hand is the underdog, the only guy at the table without millions of dollars in his bank account, he is the "loose cannon" and the point of the show, so high fives for him winning is a little more reasonable.
    2) It was a bit of a slowroll, the guy wasn't going anywhere and Hellmuth knew it...
     
  29. The_Enigma The_Enigma is offline

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    Jun 16th, 2010 (6/16/2010 8:27pm) in reply to Pezzo

     
    Originally Posted by Pezzo View Post

    I would normally agree, but two things a little different here that a regular HSP type cash game and the hand with Gus you mention;
    1) the guy who won the hand is the underdog, the only guy at the table without millions of dollars in his bank account, he is the "loose cannon" and the point of the show, so high fives for him winning is a little more reasonable.
    2) It was a bit of a slowroll, the guy wasn't going anywhere and Hellmuth knew it...

    Both those points were top of mind in the OP, I do agree and that is the premise of the show, I think DN puts himself down to a lower level than the classier TV personalities that are also respected players. Who knows maybe its his lack of cash game success in big games in recent years or that he prefers to get into a pissing match with anyone UB. Maybe Doyle was in for the high fives but couldnt stand up...I dont know.
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