I read this forum a lot. I've been here for about 15 months, and have been posting strategy articles in regards to lower limit SNG's. It's what I know. I make a living off of the blunders of other people.

How many times have you heard "I'm on a bad run right now" or "I'm just taking some horrible beats lately" ??

If you're one of these people... hovering around the breakeven point of profit... don't you think it's possible that you're just NOT very good at all? That you really don't have any significant edge over your opponents?

Variance isn't an excuse. And if you haven't been winning consistantly before... VARIANCE ISN'T TO BLAME. Varance is defiating from the expected win rate. IF YOU DON'T HAVE A WIN RATE, STOP BLAMING VARIANCE.

I'm sorry to vent, but if you want to get better, follow a few simple steps.

1) Have an immediate goal. Turning a $50 deposit into $3,000 isn't one. $50 into $100 is.

2) Play one game strictly. I suggest SNG's, and CHOOSE ONE - 9 man or 18 man.. whatever

3) Play at LEAST 100 sessions.

4) Most importantly, join a poker school... it's rediculous how much information the school's give out for practically nothing.

Stop blaming variance. Don't become results oriented. Look outside "wow you went all in with 85 off". Re-steal with rags. Raise way more often. Put yourself in your opponents shoes on the bubble.

The sad truth is that people will do anything to blame anything they can as for reasons they aren't winning. If you haven't cashed in 20 straight SNG's... you're not very good. My longest OOTM streak is like 11 and thats over 3,000 samples.

You have just pissed me off.

I will be glad when the unexplainable run comes and kicks you in the nuts. I have had it happen to me and I know these runs exist. And they suck major ass.

Before the summer I was winning. Then I hit a wall where no 80% or better hand held for me. I don't give a shit how good you think you are sir, if you can't win as an 80% favorite and you can't seem to suck out either, you are going to lose your ass.

You need to re think your 'opinion' because it is flawed and self righteous bullshit.

I have never wished anyone would lose before, but if you are gonna come riding in here on your all mighty know it all horse, I'd be glad to see you get a dose of what can and does happen.

well then...that could have been said nicer.

... a "cold run" -- sure in the long term it will even out -- but if say 4 times in a row over the course of say 1 month, you are 2nd or 3rd CL with 13 to go in a large field MTT and you get your bigger PP beaten by a smaller with all the $ in AND the bad beat was dished out by one of the two people that could bust you. Now instead of a v good cash night, you make 4-6 entry fees or so. Thus, due to some unusual results on PARTICULAR KEY hands (right at the wrong time) your month is a neg $ month instead of a + $ month.

the odds of this happening are LOW (1% ish?) but it can and will happen; all professional poker players will have months like this (years?).

might not mean they are bad players over all.

just my two pennnnies

--tc

I agree entirely with everything Gidders said in this post, people come up with so many excuses as to why they are losing. Sure, some of them may not be excuses and they are actually just going through variance, but a lot of them are just lifetime losing players.

why do so many people spell it "rediculous"

Gidds, I'm going to take issue with your last paragraph. I agree with some of what you say here, but I think there's no need (or benefit) to tell people they're bad. People have a hard time accepting that they aren't winners at this game....helpful advice is good, telling people "start realizing you're a loser" isn't a good way to help them. I know your intentions are good here, but I think your method is a bit misguided.

BTW, I logged 482 SNGs on Party earlier this year with an ROI over 21%, and I had two streaks OOTM that were longer than any of yours. The buy ins were all higher than the level you generally played, and I played fewer tables than you do (which meant I should be more focused, and thus more likely to cash), and I was playing on Party, which I think is a higher variance game than a Stars SNG. Either way, not cashing for 13 straight didn't make me a bad player or a loser, it's just what happened. I probably would have freaked out, actually, except iMsoLucky0 had told me not long before about streaks of 18 straight OOTM that he'd had, and how they drove him insane. Somehow, hearing that from a player I respect as much as him made it a little easier to endure a losing streak. I knew I was probably making some mistakes during that time, though I hoped not too many, but mostly I was playing aggressively and well and things just weren't going my way. Fortunately, I never dropped down below 30 buy ins, which would have made me move down a level, so it shows how important all that BR stuff is.

Anyway, not trying to rag on you gidds, you know I like ya. Just suggesting maybe a little more diplomacy when trying to get a point across.

Yeah, you're absoulutely right Adam. I definitely didn't choose my words carefully in this one. For that I apologize.

I have never really gone on a rant like this before in my 1700+ posts, so this is definitely out of character for me, and for that, I hope the reader can understand.

My main point wasn't to say that going on a streak of 15-20 OOTM is HORRIBLE, and it is the worst streak ever... but it was rather... If you don't have anything to compare it to... than it's not variance.

If you or I, or ImSO or Gank or whoever plays a lot of SNG's goes on a bad run, and loses more buyins than expected, than THAT is variance... because we are proven consistant winners.

It's the people who tell the stories like "I am starting a SNG challenge... and man, has variance ever kicked me in the ass!! I went 14 straight without cashing."

That's where I go out on a limb and say that person probably needs to improve his game (notice I say he sucks. :) ) and variance has nothing to do with it.

I mean, that's poker guys. Variance, OOTM streaks, cold cards like you wouldn't believe.

That's poker.

btw, check out stevesbets.... PWNING the $650 WSOP gig.

Hey...

I don't think Gidders was trying to say that extended runs of downwards variance don't happen. I think he was trying to say that a lot of players don't understand the difference between being a WINNING long-term player, who is on a nasty slump of purely poor luck (not poor cardplay), and being a LOSING long-term player, who is on a nasty slump of probably not JUST poor luck (but also some poor cardplay, whether only while tilting, or just in general).

If you played for 2 years, and had never had a losing 2-week period for the first two years, and played 3 hours a day on average, and then finally had a losing week when you finally managed to take a bunch of suckouts, and lose 3 sets of 4-sngs (12) in a row, which made for a nasty little slump to get over, and too 15 days to recover from, this isn't a big deal. You are not a losing player. You have just had an intense period of short term downwards variance.

If you have played for 7 months, and only seriously for 2 months, and have only logged 100k hands maybe, or maybe not even that, and have just lost 15 straight sngs, while single tabling, many of them in fourth place, not all of them on bad beats, the problem likely is not purely poor luck, but might be in the cardplay as well.

Also keep in mind just how few poker players win long-term. I think the general consensus is that 90% of all online poker players lose long-term. Is it really all that mind blowing that if you are new to online poker, and have a lot to learn, and don't have much practice under your belt that you might just possibly be in the 90% majority of all poker players, and not the 10% minority? I personally KNOW that I am a LOSING long-term player in online cash games. I am fine with that. I feel okay, because I know I can be honest with myself. I know what I win at: low stakes sngs and mtts, and I know what I lose at: low stakes nl cash games. I know that if I practice, read, and watch, and learn, I may become a winning player, maybe even at higher stakes. I also know that I would not expect to win if I just suddenly jumped into something I am not already a consistently winning player at.

Be honest with yourselves guys. It will save you shitloads of money, and it will allow you to realize what you need to work on to get better, and win more money.

::ducks for cover::

-bfactor

If you wantt wariance play PLO cash...

Did that for a long time and I had to be honest with myself that eventhou I was a winner I was not quite good enough for the big levels so I reevaluated myself as a player and is now kicking but in limit cash while I am trying to become a good torunament player with the help of cardrunners.com and PokerXfactor.com

You have to be able to see your own flaws to make it in online poker (or live for that matter)

/Rant over MonK

have never really gone on a rant like this before in my 1700+ posts, so this is definitely out of character for me, and for that, I hope the reader can understand.

Yes you have. =)

I think his whole point here is that the only way you know for sure that your experiencing variance is if you have proven to yourself that you're a longterm winner over the course of at least 1000 sngs. Untill then, don't blame your losses on variance. I'm sure his training site attracts the low limit donks who constantly bitch to him about bad beats and losses and rigged, ect, and it probably just gets to him after awhile.

Thanks, GL.

i am assuming i added to this when i asked you about your longest streak. i have recently gone through a recession and was wondering what your worst stretch was. similar to what imsolucky did to adam, i wanted to hear so i could feel better about my losing stretch. my Roi is still fairly good and here are my results for the last two months. previously i didnt keep track but overall its still around 25-30 percent. <TABLE class=pd_table id=pd_table cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 align=center><TBODY><TR class=highlight_small id=even_small onmouseover="this.className='highlight_small'" onmouseout="this.className='even_small'"><TD>22.00 (154)</TD><TD align=right>$ 1028.00</TD><TD align=right>46.1</TD><TD align=right>30.34%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE class=pd_table id=pd_table cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 align=center><TBODY><TR class=highlight_small id=odd_small onmouseover="this.className='highlight_small'" onmouseout="this.className='odd_small'"><TD>33.00 (106)</TD><TD align=right>$ 360.00</TD><TD align=right>41.5</TD><TD align=right>10.29%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=pd_table id=pd_table cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 align=center><TBODY><TR class=odd_small id=odd_small onmouseover="this.className='highlight_small'" onmouseout="this.className='odd_small'"><TD></TD><TD align=middle><TABLE class=pd_table id=pd_table cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="98%" align=center><TBODY><TR class=heading><TD align=middle colSpan=3>Tournament Statistics (324 Tournaments)</TD></TR><TR class=heading_green><TD width="33%"><SPAN onmouseover=showmenu(event,linkset[18]); onmouseout=delayhidemenu();>In the Money</SPAN></TD><TD width="34%"><SPAN onmouseover=showmenu(event,linkset[19]); onmouseout=delayhidemenu();>ROI</SPAN></TD><TD align=middle width="33%"><SPAN onmouseover=showmenu(event,linkset[20]); onmouseout=delayhidemenu();>AvgUnitROI / Unit STD</SPAN></TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD align=middle>44.75% </TD><TD align=middle>24.89%</TD><TD align=middle>1.29 / 1.76</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>This include my recent slide, all of which has been on pokerstars. Roi through like 48 tournament is -14 percent. if you get rid of the 180 man sit and goes its only like -5 percent. i was curious if i should be concerned as i have never gone through something like this before. Your response didnt really help very much but i am sorry for messaging you and mainly being partially responsible for this "ventage". i never posted this to the community, moreso to you, whom i considered to be a god of lower limit sit and goes. I agree with what you say and why you are venting. i apologize if my messaging angered you in anyway. just know that im not a losing player who was confused about variance or cant figure out hes a losing poker player.
hodge