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Satellite Fold Equity

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  1. xrtitleist xrtitleist is offline

    Posts: 185
    Joined: Jun 06

    Nov 20th, 2006 (11/20/2006 10:31am)

    This is a situation that I've encountered a few times since I started playing satellites like crazy. This one is from a $39 freezeout to the Sunday Million. There were approximately 45 players left, and 28 got the seat. I was in 30th at the time.

    Table setup is as follows- two stacks of 7k across the table, and a 15k stack two to my right. To my left are medium stacks.

    I have 3600, blinds 100/200 with a 25 ante, in the BB, and I pick up AKs. Everyone folds to villain in the cutoff (7k stack) who has been very active, and has shown the ability to lay down a hand to a reraise. He makes it 800 to go, and it folds to me. I was pretty sure I had him crushed, so at the time I thought that pushing was the only play. I did push, he calls with QJs (strange considering his prior laydowns, all to medium stacks), and I actually hold up.

    I'm not really concerned about the play, because of his propensity to lay down to a RR shove. My question is this: if I can see his cards, and know that he is going to call, is pushing the proper play? Should I take this edge now, or wait for better spots to use my fold eq on the medium stacks to my left? I'm essentially calling an all-in with just above a 60% edge which is horrible if you're on the bubble. But considering we were a good 16 players from the bubble, can I pass up this edge?
  2. grapsfan grapsfan is offline Head Curmudgeon

    Rosemount, MN
    United States

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    Nov 20th, 2006 (11/20/2006 10:42am) in reply to xrtitleist

    I don't think you have enough chips to wait for better than the chance to double up as a 2:1 favorite. Like you said, you certainly are short enough where you can't fold to the money.
     
  3. coolhandluck coolhandluck is offline

    Santa Monica, CA
    United States

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    Nov 20th, 2006 (11/20/2006 11:27am) in reply to xrtitleist

    You can't fold. I look at these $39 freezeouts this way: One seat for every six entrants, therefore the avg chip stack at the end is 6 x 1500 chips = 9000. My rule of thumb is that if you can get to 80% of the avg chip stack needed to finish the tourney, then you are in somewhat decent shape. 3600 is nowhere close to being able to coast in. There are only two hands where you are dominated. I think if you win this hand, you might be able to coast in or at least have a great chance of getting a seat.
  4. xrtitleist xrtitleist is offline

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    Nov 20th, 2006 (11/20/2006 12:38pm) in reply to coolhandluck

    Thanks for your opinions, I did end up coasting into the seat.
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  5. MonkeyCowboy MonkeyCowboy is offline

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    Nov 20th, 2006 (11/20/2006 2:28pm) in reply to xrtitleist

    How many times has this play not worked out?
    Call me a pussy but I fold here.
    I disagree that this is as good a time as any to double up. In these sats you are not wanting to risk all your chips. The key to these that many people miss is learning not to play.

    In a regular MTT hell yes I push here 100% of the time. But you do not need to chip up here. I'm just saying why risk all your chips second into the pot.

    His call is a perfect example of not knowing when not to play.

    He is on a blind steal and is TSTF.

    BTW you were -2/17 so although you are in the must play zone but you are not so negative as to be desperate. I disagree with this shove in the 36's
  6. xrtitleist xrtitleist is offline

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    Nov 20th, 2006 (11/20/2006 2:42pm) in reply to MonkeyCowboy

    I think the right approach would be to figure out how many times I get the seat by folding, and how many times I get it by pushing.

    edit: horrible math skills..

    I know when not to play, that isn't the problem. I had plenty of fold equity considering his prior play and the size of my stack. What I need to understand is when TO play, because we all know that you don't maximize your EV in sats by folding every time you're faced with a great chance to pick up chips w/o showdown.
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