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Satellite Q, final 3 with AA, Weird spot, results

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  1. ch0ppy ch0ppy is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 2:50pm)

    pokerstars Game #15522825865: Tournament #78558173, $2000+$100 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2008/02/24 - 15:39:46 (ET)
    Table '78558173 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
    Seat 1: Apathy123 (7726 in chips)
    Seat 4: Mr.Wrong (10004 in chips)
    Seat 8: ch0ppy (9270 in chips)
    Apathy123: posts the ante 75
    Mr.Wrong: posts the ante 75
    ch0ppy: posts the ante 75
    Mr.Wrong: posts small blind 400
    ch0ppy: posts big blind 800
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to ch0ppy [Ac As]
    Apathy123: raises 6851 to 7651 and is all-in
    Mr.Wrong: raises 2278 to 9929 and is all-in
    ch0ppy:

    wth do i do? it's probably incredibly marginal either way.

    top 2 get seat
    17 133 
  2. DJam21 DJam21 is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 2:52pm) in reply to ch0ppy

    If it's top one gets paid, call.

    If it's top two, fold as either you're just about to win or there's going to be a really small stack.
  3. Fife19 Fife19 is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 2:54pm) in reply to ch0ppy

    Oh my. My first instinct was call, but youre in really good shape if you fold even if apathy wins the hand. I think fold is the best option?

    (im assuming two get seats)
  4. AMelione AMelione is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 2:55pm) in reply to ch0ppy

    didnt' see 2 seated...i fold there will be low stack..but i dont' erally know waht i'm talkin about haha
  5. Jaybone2315 Jaybone2315 is offline J.B. Grindier

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 2:55pm) in reply to DJam21

    ^exactly
  6. The Universe The Universe is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 2:55pm) in reply to ch0ppy

    call
     
  7. Bigchip79 Bigchip79 is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 2:57pm) in reply to The Universe

    ^^^ CALL, but a fold isn't bad...either way, w.e u done, u won the seat right?
  8. Fife19 Fife19 is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 2:58pm) in reply to AMelione

    After looking at this again... I think this is a call. Both of their hands need to outdraw you for you to lose the seat. You beat apathy, you get the seat. Apathy beats you but you beat mr.wrong you have 4500ish and mr.wrong has 800ish in chips left. If mr.wrong beats both you and apathy you still get the seat.

    Ive gotta go with call here.
  9. Mr_BigQueso Mr_BigQueso is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 3:02pm) in reply to ch0ppy

    i think this is a call, but i would defer to charder30 because he knows EPTs like the back of his hand and he ft's them on the reg
    368 11
  10. andressoprano andressoprano is offline whaddya think of my game?

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 3:08pm) in reply to ch0ppy

    If they were even in chips i'd fold, but they're not, and if Mr. Wrong loses,he'll have over 2k still, and can easily win two hands on a roll and bust you later on. I call here.
     1
  11. bustarimes bustarimes is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 3:21pm) in reply to ch0ppy

    assuming only the info given. . .

    Ap shoves for 7.7k. Ap is the low stack by 1.5k and blinds+antes=1425. . .picking up the pot blind gets Ap to a tie with you. 3 players left so his shoving range is wider than one might assume. . .i'm no expert but probably AJ+ and 88+. . . probably looser than this but it depends on the table.

    Mr. Wrong is the big stack, but not by much. . . so his call is only with the intention of winning. . . I can only think that he has AK or JJ or better. . .

    That being said, you've got the best starting hand and you're in second place. . . sorry for the long recap, but these are the assumptions plus facts that I think are pertinent. . . Ch0ppy, feel free to add anything else that should be considered.

    The issue now is whether or not you should call based on the satelite structure paying out ONLY 2 players.

    My gut says call.

    The logic follows:
    1. The only way you lose is if Apathy wins, but Wrong beats you (the first guy in with the widest range has to give you a bad beat, as does Wrong. . . and Apathy has to beat Wrong). I haven't done the math, but AA obv starts off ahead and has to end up third, behind the first in and the calling big stack in that order.

    It is likely that Wrong has AK, JJ, QQ, KK, or maybe even AA.

    For you to end up losing, Wrong has to hit a straight, a flush, or a set. . . AND Ap has to beat his straight, flush, or set. Although I haven't done the math, the likelihood of this is very low. . . less than 2% I imagine (approx 5% margin of error if on the low side).

    2. The alternative is folding. The possibilities:
    a. Ap wins. . . the chip scenario then is Wrong with 2k, Ap with 15k, and you with 9k
    b. Wrong wins. . . and game over, you get a seat.

    Scenario A is the problematic one. Wrong then becomes the short stack, but the blinds+antes are at 1425. . . and if he can pick up a blind or double up, he again becomes dangerous to you. . . but you'll probably still win a seat.

    This is a really basic analysis. Someone should do the math, but if you fold, I doubt the chance of you losing the seat is less than 2% that I made up in logic 1.

    busta
     
  12. DJam21 DJam21 is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 3:24pm) in reply to ch0ppy

    Thing is though, if Apathy wins the main pot, you'll have about 2000 chips. Yes Wrong will have about 730, but if he wins the next hand (when he's the button, and knowing he'll have to go in since he knows you'll be passing your SB), then he'll be on about 2000, whilst you'll be on 1600 (or he'll be on 2400 with you on 1200).

    Not saying a call is wrong, but a fold isn't too bad.

    Also, don't forget Apathy was the original pusher. Wrong knows he'll be short stack if he loses so he's gonna have a decent hand.
  13. charder charder is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 3:29pm) in reply to DJam21

    didnt run any math, but it looks like a fold at first glance (assumin 2 seats)
     
  14. bustarimes bustarimes is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 3:32pm) in reply to DJam21

    Having not done the math, I think the fold is the wrong play mathematically (ie, Ch0p gets the seat more often if he calls than if he folds). Where are the math wizards to do some calculation?
     
  15. ImSoMucked ImSoMucked is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 3:40pm) in reply to ch0ppy

  16. IWEARGOGGLES IWEARGOGGLES is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 3:57pm) in reply to ImSoMucked

    Looks like a fold.
    181 
  17. andressoprano andressoprano is offline whaddya think of my game?

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 4:11pm) in reply to bustarimes

    ^^^^^^Cosign, agreed, end of the thread.
     1
  18. bustarimes bustarimes is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 4:16pm) in reply to charder

    What are your reasons for folding? I understand that folding is the safer play, (ie, you get your seat is the big stack wins the hand). . . but I do not see the wisdom in not entering the hand.

    You give yourself a better chance at winning, and I do not believe that the chance that you lose the hand AND that Wrong beats you is greater than your chance of losing and playing out the tourney in what is probably the minority of the time that Apathy holds up against Wrong.
     
  19. Etrain99 Etrain99 is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 5:08pm) in reply to ch0ppy

    call .. both need to draw out .. highly unlikely with aces
  20. mattdogg2443 mattdogg2443 is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 5:17pm) in reply to ch0ppy

    fold
  21. Fife19 Fife19 is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 5:18pm) in reply to Etrain99

    Yes, both need to draw out, and in specific order of apathy>mrwrong>ch0ppy.
  22. andressoprano andressoprano is offline whaddya think of my game?

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 5:26pm) in reply to ch0ppy

    OK, now tell us what happened.
     1
  23. JasonGray JasonGray is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 5:30pm) in reply to Fife19

    I think theres a good argument both ways for sure. After thinking about it I think calling is a bit better.

    When you call you are going 2 vs 1 with yours and mr wongs hand which yours is huge and wongs should be pretty big as well so the odds of the shortstack beating BOTH of you is pretty damn low. Even if he did get so lucky youd be battling mr wong with 2kstack vs his 3k stack which is anyones game and youre probably 50/50 of getting a seat at that point. So lets give the shortstack a guestimate of 15% chance of winning/beating BOTH of you with his holding. and give you a underestimated 40% chance of winning a seat IF the shortstack wins the hand and youre battling wong for 2nd. IF you fold apathy's chance of winning increases a lot depending on how tight you think wongs range is but id say this guy has a 30%+ chance of winning which is 2x as much chance that the guy doesnt lose and it's over. Then you have a 14k, 4k, 9k battle which your chance of getting top two increases to something like 65%?

    Overall I think it's very close either way but actually lean towards the call
     
  24. Wawa711 Wawa711 is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 5:34pm) in reply to ch0ppy

    fold, u have enough chips even if apathy wins, and hell be in the BB next hand for over a third of his stack. So he'll be all in with ATC. if u lose this 3 way all in ur crippled no matter who wins.
     
  25. stevie444 stevie444 is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 6:45pm) in reply to ch0ppy

    SNG Wiz says its a call with AA regardless of ranges, KK is a call if unless both players are pretty tight and QQ is basically never a call.

    Also whoever said on the other page that the guys shoving range is like 88+,AJ+ is waaaay off, its so much looser - as is the other guys calling range.
    315 12
  26. aad aad is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 8:06pm) in reply to ch0ppy

    call because it's unlikely BOTH of them will beat you.
  27. FishOnTilt FishOnTilt is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2008 (2/24/2008 9:06pm) in reply to aad

    i think i fold...but like u said its really marginal either way....
     
  28. ch0ppy ch0ppy is offline

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    Feb 25th, 2008 (2/25/2008 1:09pm) in reply to ch0ppy

    <span>Results:</span>

    pokerstars Game #15522825865: Tournament #78558173, $2000+$100 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2008/02/24 - 15:39:46 (ET)
    Table '78558173 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
    Seat 1: Apathy123 (7726 in chips)
    Seat 4: Mr.Wrong (10004 in chips)
    Seat 8: ch0ppy (9270 in chips)
    Apathy123: posts the ante 75
    Mr.Wrong: posts the ante 75
    ch0ppy: posts the ante 75
    Mr.Wrong: posts small blind 400
    ch0ppy: posts big blind 800
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to ch0ppy [Ac As]
    Apathy123: raises 6851 to 7651 and is all-in
    Mr.Wrong: raises 2278 to 9929 and is all-in
    ch0ppy: calls 8395 and is all-in
    *** FLOP *** [Td 2d 5d]
    *** TURN *** [Td 2d 5d] [Qc]
    *** RIVER *** [Td 2d 5d Qc] [4s]
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    Mr.Wrong: shows [9h Ad] (high card Ace)
    ch0ppy: shows [Ac As] (a pair of Aces)
    ch0ppy collected 3088 from side pot
    Apathy123: shows [9s Ks] (high card King)
    ch0ppy collected 23178 from main pot
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 26266 Main pot 23178. Side pot 3088. | Rake 0
    Board [Td 2d 5d Qc 4s]
    Seat 1: Apathy123 (button) showed [9s Ks] and lost with high card King
    Seat 4: Mr.Wrong (small blind) showed [9h Ad] and lost with high card Ace
    Seat 8: ch0ppy (big blind) showed [Ac As] and won (26266) with a pair of Aces

    Not that it matters with this hand, but here's how it ended up.
    17 133 
    Thread Starter
  29. pistol-pete pistol-pete is offline

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    Feb 25th, 2008 (2/25/2008 1:53pm) in reply to ch0ppy

    nh, but how do people feel about the A9 call?
    Seems wrong to me.
  30. Dissident Dissident is offline

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    Feb 25th, 2008 (2/25/2008 1:57pm) in reply to pistol-pete

    It is 3 handed on the bubble I dont think A9 is that bad there

    I dont know much though
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