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Satellite - what's your play?

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  1. Dunce Dunce is offline

    Posts: 1,153
    Joined: Mar 05

    Jun 9th, 2006 (6/9/2006 5:27pm)

    Situation: Satellite Tourney awarding multiple seats. You are sitting 3 outside the money with 30 to go. In SB with KdQd. 1 Limper. Blinds 400/800/100

    If you Fold through, it's maybe 50/50 that you get a seat. With a suited KQ, you put in a Min Raise. The Limper, a very aggressive player who overplayed TP about 12 hands ago and got crippled makes a min-Reraise. He has since more than doubled back up, and you barely have him outstacked. His Reraise smells, so you Call.

    Flop: 9d Ad 4c. Pot = 7000

    What's your play? If you bet and he Pushes over-the-top, what then?
  2. jay_shark jay_shark is offline

    NY
    United States

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    Jun 9th, 2006 (6/9/2006 5:30pm) in reply to Dunce

    How much do you both have in chips ?
  3. Dunce Dunce is offline

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    Jun 9th, 2006 (6/9/2006 6:00pm) in reply to jay_shark

    He's got 20,420. I've got 24k.
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  4. jay_shark jay_shark is offline

    NY
    United States

    Posts: 2,633
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    Jun 9th, 2006 (6/9/2006 6:08pm) in reply to Dunce

    I would check in this spot . If he bets close to the pot or more ( as long as I don't think he's pot committed ) , then I would probably push all my chips in the middle as that play wouldn't make much sense to me . If he bets half the pot , I would call for a couple reasons .

    a) he may have a medium pocket pair and by calling , you can confuse him .

    b ) you are getting close , if not correct odds to chase your flush draw .
  5. Dunce Dunce is offline

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    Jun 10th, 2006 (6/10/2006 10:24am) in reply to jay_shark

    I had hoped this one would provoke more discussion because it is another grey area hand. The correct plays from this point forward depend on how accurately you've read your opponent. How accurate your read of his probable holding is.

    He is the most active and aggressive player at the table. I've seen him play hands as low as 4/3 offsuit to a Raise. He's done everything from bully people out of pots preflop to bully them out on the flop to tease them along to the River. He could be on a naked steal or he might have the nuts with A/9.

    After the Flop, I decided that board gave me a perfect opportunity to represent the Ace I didn't have, so I bet exactly half the Pot, 3500. He immediately Pushed. So, what hands fit the way he has played?

    To me, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT don't fit at all. 99 or 44 he either would have bet more Pre, or he'd simply Call and extract more on the remaining streets. A/x would fit as would 9/x or 4/x.

    I finally decided he was on a naked steal and Called. Mathematically, it was a good Call for what I'd decided he had, which was precisely nothing. I was wrong. He actually had A/10. I needed 1.7:1 and I was only getting 4:3. If I'd given him any Ace, any 9, or any 4, Calling was almost precisely break-even ( 43.4/56.6 ).

    The point I'm trying to get across here is that the rightness or wrongness of a play depends on the accuracy of your read, not the cards per se. If he'd had what I thought he did, I was a 60+% favorite and this was a Must-Call. But, if I'd given him any Ace, I was a 37% dog and it was a Must-Fold. I probably let my need for a double-up overide my better sense. That's dumb. And, fairly typical for a dunce ;]

    If anybody cares, the Turn bailed me out with the 5d.

    The kicker is that he came back, under a totally different screen name, to berate me in particular and the whole table in general for being the worst players he'd ever seen.

    I guess you get "good" by multi-accounting.
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