this hand has been leveling me for quite some time.. pre hand history.. lag player, jdpc, shoves 3 out of the previous 8 hands then decides to come in for a 2.3x open utg.. and i wake up to 10s.. push or fold in EP.. what do we do?
Full Tilt Poker Game #22969454813: FTOPS Event #16 (167286907), Table 137 - 300/600 Ante 75 - No Limit Hold'em - 00:30:31 ET - 2010/08/10
Seat 1: jdpc27 (9,545)
Seat 2: Viktor Jensen (30,393)
Seat 3: UgA7211 (9,992)
Seat 4: pmahoney22 (6,759)
Seat 5: Marsall1121 (19,851)
Seat 6: NL_Jedi (23,285)
Seat 7: Kazak132 (6,762)
Seat 8: pool_shark_10 (13,815)
Seat 9: papadelpoker (14,982)
jdpc27 antes 75
Viktor Jensen antes 75
UgA7211 antes 75
pmahoney22 antes 75
Marsall1121 antes 75
NL_Jedi antes 75
Kazak132 antes 75
pool_shark_10 antes 75
papadelpoker antes 75
pool_shark_10 posts the small blind of 300
papadelpoker posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to UgA7211 [Td Th]
jdpc27 has 15 seconds left to act
jdpc27 raises to 1,425
Viktor Jensen folds
UgA7211 raises to 9,917, and is all in
pmahoney22 has 15 seconds left to act
pmahoney22 has requested TIME
pmahoney22 calls 6,684, and is all in
Marsall1121 folds
NL_Jedi folds
Kazak132 folds
pool_shark_10 folds
papadelpoker folds
jdpc27 calls 8,045, and is all in
UgA7211 shows [Td Th]
pmahoney22 shows [9c 9s]
jdpc27 shows [Jc Js]
Uncalled bet of 447 returned to UgA7211
*** FLOP *** [5s 9h 7d]
*** TURN *** [5s 9h 7d] [8c]
illt8keth0se (Observer): 10101001010101
*** RIVER *** [5s 9h 7d 8c] [7h]
UgA7211 shows two pair, Tens and Sevens
jdpc27 shows two pair, Jacks and Sevens
jdpc27 wins the side pot (5,572) with two pair, Jacks and Sevens
pmahoney22 shows a full house, Nines full of Sevens
pmahoney22 wins the main pot (21,627) with a full house, Nines full of Sevens
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 27,199 Main pot 21,627. Side pot 5,572. | Rake 0
Board: [5s 9h 7d 8c 7h]
Seat 1: jdpc27 showed [Jc Js] and won (5,572) with two pair, Jacks and Sevens
Seat 2: Viktor Jensen folded before the Flop
Seat 3: UgA7211 showed [Td Th] and lost with two pair, Tens and Sevens
Seat 4: pmahoney22 showed [9c 9s] and won (21,627) with a full house, Nines full of Sevens
Seat 5: Marsall1121 folded before the Flop
Seat 6: NL_Jedi folded before the Flop
Seat 7: Kazak132 (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 8: pool_shark_10 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: papadelpoker (big blind) folded before the Flop

i obv give the insta pile thinking theres no way hes leveling me into folding.. wrong choice.. gg.. thoughts ? appreciate the feedback

 

Originally Posted by NG3434

cooler.. fire up a new game. Pocket 10s with what 14 BBs... I think thats an easy shove just got unlucky to run into those 2 hands

thats just it.. u looked at it without even thinking .. if ur open shoving then decide to 2.3x open utg.. that has to be a sign of strength 9 times out of 10.. not to mention its a 1k buy in..the more output ive received leads me to think its a snap fold.. i need qq+ and mayb ak in that spot

raise more pre flop, youll get him to fold out 99 more often then not.

as played tho, bet fold river.

 

Originally Posted by witcher1984

idk man we could ch/raise river?

on any other river , id agree.

One thing to factor in about the 3 of the last 8 hands that were won...

Assuming the blinds hadn't changed over those hands, 8 hands ago he would've had close to 6300. That puts him in the 10xBB range and he would be all in or fold. Now that he's got 16XBB utg, he no longer has to shove with the same range.

I don't know the player but I think he if he was open shoving, this would be a prime time to do that with JJ as his image is now reckless and he will get some thin calls. I think he realizes that with the over the top all in you make that he realizes what his image is and he is beating most of the range that you have, although the caller might have him beat. Even if the caller has him beat and you don't he still has 10xBB for the next hand. He puts you in a spot because what can you do on the flop if you flat call? You don't know where you are at and I'm betting you think he'll open shove, so it's fold or raise. It's a tough fold but one that you have to consider given the sudden change in his play. (Having said that I think post hand discussion makes it clearer and at least 90% of us call even though most of us wouldn't be really happy about it...)

This seems like a no brainer to get it in here...You think you're gonna be able to get it in much better once the blinds hit you with that stack???

 

Originally Posted by uga7211

lol.. if im getting it in 4-1 and im confident of that.. how do u consider getting that in good.. obv fold.. wowsers on that comment -ev obv

You were confident you were 4-1??? This seems absurd. Is he always showing up with a bigger pair? If so then I guess this is a snap fold...? You said yourself he is a LAG player.

absurdly easy fold

snap folding..... no way his range is balanced here (nothing against jdpc just that in an event liek this no reason to balance vs tons of satty qualifiers)