A friend of mine sent me this hand and was asking about the implications of calling or folding pre. I just wanted to get some feedback on it.

<h4>Hand info:</h4><table><tbody><tr><td><span>Date:</span></td><td>Unknown</td></tr><tr><td><span>Type:</span></td><td>Cash Games</td></tr><tr><td><span>Game:</span></td><td>Hold'em NL</td></tr><tr><td><span>Table:</span></td><td>Unknown</td></tr><tr><td><span>Blinds:</span></td><td>$400/800</td></tr></tbody></table>

<h4>Table info:</h4><table width="250"><tbody><tr><td align="left">Posts small blind $400</td></tr></tbody></table>
Seat 1: Zooho27 ($40,055)
<table width="250"><tbody><tr><td align="left">Posts big blind $800</td></tr></tbody></table>
Seat 2: DZIQS1 ($8,005)
Seat 3: <a href="javascript:profile_nick('HERO ')">HERO </a>($20,855)
Seat 4: AMluiza ($7,320)
Seat 5: Bunda13 ($12,713)
Seat 6: Hoejtaler ($15,950)
Seat 7: C.R.E.A.M 1 ($9,310)
Seat 8: perplexe1 ($16,235)
Seat 9: kaabouche ($11,890)
<table width="250"><tbody><tr><td align="left">Dealer</td></tr></tbody></table>
Seat 10: hubsi0202 ($12,910)

Dealt to HERO


<h4>Preflop: <span>(Pot: $1200)</span></h4>RAISE HERO, to $1,799
FOLD AMluiza
FOLD Bunda13
CALL Hoejtaler, $1,799
FOLD C.R.E.A.M 1
FOLD perplexe1
RAISE kaabouche, to $2,798
FOLD hubsi0202
FOLD Zooho27
FOLD DZIQS1
CALL HERO, $999
CALL Hoejtaler, $999

<h4>Flop: <span>(Pot: $7,795)</span></h4>
CHECK HERO
CHECK Hoejtaler
BET kaabouche, $4,000
FOLD HERO
FOLD Hoejtaler

<h4>Showdown:</h4>kaabouche wins the pot of $10,394

It says it is a NL cash game, but the stack sizes are wtf.

The pot contains ~$7600 before we make the call and we have to call ~$1000. Odds of flopping a set is 7.3:1, so even without implied odds, we should be ok here.

As a rule of thumb, I like the villian and I to each have 15 times what I am being asked to call before I set-mine since I don't always get paid when I hit. But that is in a situation where the villian is the raiser and I am calling behind. Which means other than our bets, there is only 1 BB and 1 SB in the pot. With antes in play, this number can be shifted down some.
This spot is pretty different, the Raise by the villian is rediculous. He is giving both of you an opportunity to outflop him with, atleast in your case, proper odds to do so.

Good fold on the flop.

I thought it was quite an interesting one really strictly because of the ridiculous bet sizing pre flop so I thought I'd run a few numbers.

Hero 20,855

Villain 11,890

Player1 15,950

Blinds are 400/800 no antes

Pot (1200)

Hero bets 1,799 (19056)

Player 1 c 1,799 (14151)

Villain r 2,798 (9092) here the pot is now (7,596)

It is 999 more to call in to 7,596, so you are getting 7.6 to 1 to make the call.

Odds of hitting your set on the flop,12% chance of hitting your set

giving set mining odds of around 7.5 to 1. i.e. you are getting the correct odds to call right

now.

So you call and player 1 calls.

Hero c 999 (18,057)

Player 1c 999 (13,152)

Pot (9594)

Obviously right now, you are putting the villain on a monster, so if you miss you throw your hand away.

If you check whether you hit or not, lets say the villain still makes the same bet, almost

half his stack.

villain b 4,000 (5,092)

Here it is not a question of what you do, more, have you hit?If you have, you jam

and he calls (obviously this is not taking in to account what player 1's actions are), if you miss you fold.(Simple explanation I know but I dont think too much depth is needed here).

So we can say that by putting in the extra 999 pre flop and if we play it as above (and obv the guy

isnt a complete retard and folds the flop after putting half his stack in), that we will

get the rest of his chips i.e. 9,092 more.

Unfortunately, we will not get the rest of his chips 100% of the time when we hit our set so I will just set a figure of between 88% and 90% of the time we hit our set we win the hand.

We miss our set 88% of the time and we hit it 12% of the time, of this 12% we will win the hand outright, say, 90% of the time.

So we can say:

88% of the time we lose 999

1% of the time we lose 9,092

11% of the time we gain at least 9,092 (not taking in to account player 1's actions).

If we use these figures over a sample of 100 hands then we get:

88 times we lose 999 = 87,912

1 time we lose 9092 = 9,092

11 times we gain 9092 = 100,012

which over 100 hands means that we would have profit of 3,008.

Obviously these numbers are not 100% accurate and it doesnt really take in to account player 1's actions, but it is clear to see that making the call is a +ive ev play and profitable over a large sample of hands.

 

Originally Posted by slks

So villain never has AK or AQ?

With his stack, this would be a terrible play with either of those hands! However, I suppose you cant completely rule it out, but the chances in this case, I think are minute.

 

Originally Posted by brysch22

The idea with setmining tho is having the plan before the flop comes out..flop a set or fold...regardless of the board etc, because preflop you made the decision and have to follow ur preflop decision in this spot (or your gonna be having problems often if you change ur mind after the flop).

Completely agree, there is no way your decision should waver post flop, it doesn't matter what the villain has(could have) in this spot, its fold or shove imo.

what site is this? i might try and deposit