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Should i fold KK here?

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  1. jdk13 jdk13 is offline

    Prince George
    Canada

    Posts: 138
    Joined: Aug 07

    Aug 25th, 2007 (8/25/2007 7:06pm)

    Really tough situation at the end of a 6 man sit n go, (all 4 ppl all-in) should i have thrown away KK here?

    Full Tilt Poker Game #3363110465: $55 + $5 Sit & Go (Turbo) (25718944), Table 1 - 120/240 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:57:04 ET - 2007/08/25
    Seat 1: JohnnyDrama13 (960)
    Seat 2: Nate Fisher (4,090)
    Seat 5: jdk13 (2,900)
    Seat 6: Spudz (1,050)
    Nate Fisher posts the small blind of 120
    jdk13 posts the big blind of 240
    The button is in seat #1
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to jdk13 [Kd Kh]
    Spudz raises to 1,050, and is all in
    JohnnyDrama13 calls 960, and is all in
    Nate Fisher raises to 4,090, and is all in
    jdk13 calls 2,660, and is all in
    Nate Fisher shows [Qs Ah]
    jdk13 shows [Kd Kh]
    Spudz shows [2h Jh]
    JohnnyDrama13 shows [Td Qc]
    Uncalled bet of 1,190 returned to Nate Fisher
    *** FLOP *** [4d Ac Th]
    *** TURN *** [4d Ac Th] [8h]
    *** RIVER *** [4d Ac Th 8h] [5h]
    Nate Fisher shows a pair of Aces
    jdk13 shows a pair of Kings
    Nate Fisher wins side pot #2 (3,700) with a pair of Aces
    Spudz shows a flush, Jack high
    Spudz wins side pot #1 (270) with a flush, Jack high
    JohnnyDrama13 shows a pair of Tens
    Spudz wins the main pot (3,840) with a flush, Jack high
    JohnnyDrama13 stands up
    jdk13 stands up
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 7,810 Main pot 3,840. Side pot 1 270. Side pot 2 3,700. | Rake 0
    Board: [4d Ac Th 8h 5h]
    Seat 1: JohnnyDrama13 (button) showed [Td Qc] and lost with a pair of Tens
    Seat 2: Nate Fisher (small blind) showed [Qs Ah] and won (3,700) with a pair of Aces
    Seat 5: jdk13 (big blind) showed [Kd Kh] and lost with a pair of Kings
    Seat 6: Spudz showed [2h Jh] and won (4,110) with a flush, Jack high

    With the bubble looming and the chip leader already in, folding was probably the move but if i take down the hand looks like an easy win what do u guys think?
  2. Sigmapoker Sigmapoker is offline

    Lakeland, FL
    United States

    Posts: 431
    Joined: Aug 07

    Aug 25th, 2007 (8/25/2007 8:02pm) in reply to jdk13

    I think you have to chalk this one up to bad luck. It's unfortunate that it worked out the way it did for you, but playing 4 handed and having 3 guys shove and then waking up with KK is a dream scenario. You did every thing you could and it didn't work out for you, but you can't fold here in my opinion.
  3. jdk13 jdk13 is offline

    Prince George
    Canada

    Posts: 138
    Joined: Aug 07

    Aug 25th, 2007 (8/25/2007 8:17pm) in reply to Sigmapoker

    Thanks for the reply, ive just never ran into a situation like that b4 but i feel better hearing that i made the right play. Maybe if this was a satellite tourney with the top 2 getting paid the same i fold KK but other then that i dont see how it can be done. Also if the guy in SB doesnt make his runner runner flush i still take 2nd after getting beat by the AQ due to having the biggest stack of the 3.

    This was my 1st post on here, just wanted to say im glad i found this site some sick players on here giving good advice, i know has helped me improve my game lots already.
    Thread Starter
  4. havocpoker havocpoker is offline

    Rochester, MN
    United States

    Posts: 64
    Joined: Mar 07

    Aug 25th, 2007 (8/25/2007 9:44pm) in reply to jdk13

    Tuff spot, If I was going for the win I would call, if I needed the money I would fold.
  5. MYBLUEDOG MYBLUEDOG is offline

    Greenville, MS
    United States

    Posts: 1,999
    Joined: May 07

    Aug 25th, 2007 (8/25/2007 11:39pm) in reply to jdk13

    Push, Push, Push, ???? find [KK] fold is the correct play. Your pot equity is about 40% at best. You're about a 3:1 dog against the field. Fold and play for the win later. You gotta have some patience to take 1st or 2nd. Sure you have massive chip lead if you win. If you loose, you get nothing. T2900 is way ahead of anyone who ends up loosing. Best case senario, you move directly into the money (2nd) and play for first. Worst case senarion is you're down to 3 way action playing for the money with the second place stack or tied for stacks Roughly 2900 to 3300 each.

    Oh, if you don't have any poker skill, follow the crowds advice, push-GAMBOOL!!!!

    Hold'em Simulation
    <span>600,000 trials (Randomized)</span>
    <table border="1" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><th>Hand</th><th>Pot equity</th><th>Wins</th><th>Ties</th></tr><tr><td>KdKh</td><td>40.56%</td><td>242,906</td><td>1,728</td></tr><tr><td>AA,AQ</td><td>33.93%</td><td>201,108</td><td>5,947</td></tr><tr><td>*h*h</td><td>15.21%</td><td>89,268</td><td>4,923</td></tr><tr><td>QT-Q7</td><td>10.30%</td><td>59,040</td><td>6,480</td></tr></tbody></table>
  6. Sigmapoker Sigmapoker is offline

    Lakeland, FL
    United States

    Posts: 431
    Joined: Aug 07

    Aug 26th, 2007 (8/26/2007 12:16am) in reply to MYBLUEDOG

    MYBLUEDOG I understand what you're saying about folding, being patient and waiting to play heads up. At the same time, if he feels that he isn't up against AA then he's a big favorite and why not get his money in when he knows he's good? If he's a 3:1 favorite against the field and he can become an overwhelming chip leader and put himself into a position to possibly steamroll his way to first, shouldn't he take it? There's a lot to be said for folding, but I think an argument can be made for calling as well. Then again, I'm far from a pro so I'd be glad to hear other people's opinions. I could probably have stood to lay down KK preflop in the past before.
  7. MYBLUEDOG MYBLUEDOG is offline

    Greenville, MS
    United States

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    Joined: May 07

    Aug 26th, 2007 (8/26/2007 3:48am) in reply to Sigmapoker

    Folding has almost no negative impact. Calling and loosing 25 to 40% of the time has severe negative impact on tournament life.

    But an argument can be made for either situation.

    If you loose to the short stack and win from the big stack you end up with T3600 - 3800 and have a chance to take down ITM finish.

    You just have to be resolved to bust out about 35% when you go in against 3 other players. You only have to win against the big stack to maintain your stack. Foldiing has more +EV in my book.

    Knowing that bigstack might be trying to isolate and he's your primary concern, here's another way to look at it.
    Hold'em Simulation
    <span>345,885,408 trials (Exhaustive)</span>
    <table border="1" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><th>Hand</th><th>Pot equity</th><th>Wins</th><th>Ties</th></tr><tr><td>KdKh</td><td>69.40%</td><td>239,277,714</td><td>1,501,196</td></tr><tr><td>AA,A*,QQ,JJ</td><td>30.60%</td><td>105,106,498</td><td>1,501,196</td></tr></tbody></table>

    But you still have to think about that %of the time he has [A,x] and catches.

    Looking at it from this perspective, makes a pretty compelling case for calling.

    There are just lots of ways to play it.
  8. grayggr grayggr is offline

    Manchester
    United Kingdom

    Posts: 140
    Joined: Mar 07

    Aug 26th, 2007 (8/26/2007 4:38am) in reply to MYBLUEDOG

    You've obviously seen heavy action before the action is on you and perhaps a fold is feasible. However Spudz and JohnnyDrama are both short staked and could be pushing with any holdings (as turned out to be the case), and the only worry is Nate. With his stack he could enter the pot after posting the sb knowing that the two short stacks are probably making last ditch pushes, especially easy for him to do with a hand like AQos. He'll also make the push with JJ QQ KK AA AK not wanting you to enter the pot behind him. However despite all of the action. When all is said and done KK is a monster in any game but 4 handed I have to call. He has Aces, so be it, they have Ax, and an Ace hits on the board so be it, I was destined to lose the pot.
  9. Passiveplay Passiveplay is offline

    Erlanger, KY
    United States

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    Aug 26th, 2007 (8/26/2007 10:32pm) in reply to jdk13

    I think you have to call here, because even if the big stack has AA you are probably in the money assuming it holds up against the two SS. If one of the SS have AAyou are a big favorite to beat the large stack and the side pot will make up for it. The only way you don't make the money and get busted is if the perfect storm happens and you lose the side pot the big stack the the main pot to one of the short stacks. But of course that is what happened because sometimes poker is a bitch.
     
  10. shanetrain22 shanetrain22 is offline

    Posts: 5,179
    Joined: Oct 06

    Aug 26th, 2007 (8/26/2007 10:40pm) in reply to jdk13

    ship the sherbert
     1
  11. Skyroller Skyroller is offline

    Charlotte, NC
    United States

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    Aug 27th, 2007 (8/27/2007 2:37am) in reply to shanetrain22

    Only thing you are worried about is AA. You didn't think he had it, and he didn't, so nice play there.
  12. lordxixor101 lordxixor101 is offline

    Westland, MI
    United States

    Posts: 6,364
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    Aug 27th, 2007 (8/27/2007 9:55am) in reply to grayggr

    grayggr,

    I agree with you, and I think you can ignore the 2 small stacks here. If it was just them, you're calling all day every day.

    The scary part is the big stack. Now, your going up 4 handed for all your chips. The big stack has a hand too (I don't think he pushes junk here).

    But, you also have to think about, winning 6 handed tournaments is the only real money. You don't get very much for finishing 2nd. So ICM says to play to win.

    Even if the low stack has atc here, the caller likely has something (ace is always possible). Big stack might have a real hand, but if he has AA, is he really pushing here? With AA, he really wants you in the hand too, since he's HU for that money with you (I know about wanting to isolate, but I think this might be a shot to gamble with AA there, since you are likely folding anyway).

    Given all this, I think you have to call. If you aren't up against AA (and you don't have to be) you are in great shape here. You are guaranteed 2nd, and way up in the lead. Even if you lose the hand, you can be in decent shape if you beat the chip leader.

    After that, the hand worked out horribly for you. Ace hits, giving the big stack the win over you. But, then a flush hits, so that one of the low stacks live. You should have at least gotten out of here with 2nd place in this spot, even losing.

    So, horrible luck, but, talking it through, I think pushing is the right play here.
  13. sotti sotti is offline

    Portland, OR
    United States

    Posts: 1,342
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    Aug 27th, 2007 (8/27/2007 11:31am) in reply to jdk13

    I don't think folding is unreasonable there.

    If you had QQ I'd say easy fold.

    Especially with the possibility that there might be two people pushing with big Aces, I think the call is deffinetly not out of lime and playing to win for sure.
  14. jdk13 jdk13 is offline

    Prince George
    Canada

    Posts: 138
    Joined: Aug 07

    Aug 27th, 2007 (8/27/2007 8:33pm) in reply to jdk13

    Yeah i agree u pretty much have to throw away QQ in that situation, and probably AKs, AQs also, whereas AA is the only insta-call. KK is the one hand where i wasnt sure what to do, because as was mentioned earlier i knew it was unlikely Nate would push all in with AA after the 2 small stacks pushed in front of him, as it would kill his shot at getting me in the hand and finishing the game. Essentially by pushing there he was sending me a pretty big message that he wanted no part of dealing with me in that hand. I put him on a hand range of AJ+, 99+, with AA and AK unlikely and KK very unlikely as i had KK myself. When you take that info into consideration, something like AQo was right in the middle of that range and very likely.

    Looking at the numbers:
    pokenum -h kd kh - ah qs - 2h jh - td qc
    Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
    cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
    Kd Kh 562278 51.77 520637 47.94 3093 0.28 0.518
    Qs Ah 251609 23.17 824215 75.89 10184 0.94 0.236
    Jh 2h 156897 14.45 926018 85.27 3093 0.28 0.145
    Qc Td 105040 9.67 970784 89.39 10184 0.94 0.101

    It wasn't an insta-call for me by any means, I used up a good amount of my time bank thinking about the situation. In the end, I got my money in very good 4 handed, and just got UL, and as ive learned on here its more important to focus on making the right play and try not to be so results-oriented.
    Thread Starter
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