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Should I follow my gut even though it isn't a 'real' tell?

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  1. Izaak Izaak is offline

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    Dec 31st, 2011 (12/31/2011 6:55pm)

    For example I played this unknown player heads up. On the button i min raised 10j he called. 8c10dkc. He checked I bet 3/4 he called. Turn came 2d check check. River came a blank and he bet pot. My instinct said bluff because his play made no sense but I have no read on him. I kind of knew he was bluffing but folded and he showed 67clubs for a busted flush. If I followed my gut I would of won. Also another example is

    Well ill just say his played made sense but I didn't have any history with him so knew nothing about him and even though his play made sense it FELT like he was bluffing. I had 0 tells on him. Should I have called i was getting 2/1 on a call?

    My question really is why does your gut tell you something? Is it because you subconsciously picked up on something? Or Is it just paranoia?
  2. kevmode kevmode is offline

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    Dec 31st, 2011 (12/31/2011 8:55pm) in reply to Izaak

    Usually for me my 1st instinct is always right when it comes to decisions on the river.
     
  3. RedIceRap RedIceRap is offline Moderator

    Ludwigsburg
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    Dec 31st, 2011 (12/31/2011 9:55pm) in reply to kevmode

    This kinda spot is usually a snap call for me. Always go with ur guts imo.

    I check behind turn to pot control and at the sam e time look weak and get villain to bluff river. This is not an instinct spot for me anymore.
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  4. sirjwab sirjwab is offline

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    Dec 31st, 2011 (12/31/2011 11:19pm) in reply to kevmode

     
    Originally Posted by kevmode View Post

    Usually for me my 1st instinct is always right when it comes to decisions on the river.

    Exactly this, never doubt your gut. 6th sense FTW
  5. BMastaG BMastaG is offline

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    Jan 1st, 2012 (1/1/2012 12:13am) in reply to sirjwab

    go with the first instincts i agree...must have confidence in your reads. But facing elimination at a major tourney, I may double check.
  6. RedIceRap RedIceRap is offline Moderator

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    Jan 1st, 2012 (1/1/2012 4:05am) in reply to BMastaG

    i think if u feel like ur hand is good in this spot then it is most of the time. if he isnt pot contrilling himself why does he check twice on a TKX flop with a flushdraw??? JQ has a draw and a flushdraw has a draw. basicly a lot of hands have air on the river and try to take that pot down there. i had a lot of "instinct" spots and this isnt one of them. this is one of them: http://www.pocketfives.com/f7/tough-...ourney-652914/
    and that player told me later that he had a boat and it was a nice fold by me a few days later and he had no reason to lie imo, especially cause that play made a lot of sense with a boat. honestly, i think every good player will agree with me that it is a snap call vs a random every day all day esp this early in a tourney when there are so many bad players still in it. if u think this is just an "instinct" call and not a standard call then you are either way too tight or ur basic understanding of ranges or hand reading isnt that good.

    i mean, what's his range there? JQ, prolly every suited connector, and some kings like KQ, KJ, maybe a slowplayed KT, slowplayed set, and maybe a few more hands. but the hands that have u beat are rather unlikely because of that draw heavy flop. even a good player doesnt have a good hand often there because when u check behind the turn it kinda looks like you are drawing urself and u look pretty weak by checking behind turn. so if i had a hand like AT if i was the villain i prolly would check to induce a bet from u and also for pot control.
     252 
  7. dadams588 dadams588 is offline

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    Jan 5th, 2012 (1/5/2012 5:22am) in reply to RedIceRap

    Snap call river vs 95% of villains here ainec. Your HU and ranges are going to be super wide... he will likely bluff all missed draws viewing your check on the turn as a give up... dont make a habit of folding this spot or you will be run over.
     
  8. matze_widi matze_widi is offline

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    Jan 5th, 2012 (1/5/2012 4:57pm) in reply to dadams588

    bet turn
     
  9. double_kyan double_kyan is online now

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    Jan 5th, 2012 (1/5/2012 5:13pm) in reply to matze_widi

    why not tell us the river card anyhow ,instead of saying blank? ..........anyhow usually if the story doesn't make sense its a call, but this action reeks of" snappage that pot bet son" as far as your question goes instincts come from experience of hands played imo,but u created him to bet river and failed to see that .
    Edited By: double_kyan Jan 5th, 2012 at 05:20 PM
     1
  10. rivverkiller rivverkiller is offline

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    Jan 5th, 2012 (1/5/2012 9:16pm) in reply to double_kyan

    bet turn for value, check back river vs. most players headsup. after checking turn, snap call river. draws missed and he could value bet worse.
     
  11. feedthemfish feedthemfish is offline

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    Jan 8th, 2012 (1/8/2012 8:30am) in reply to rivverkiller

    follow that gut.

    Main Reason:
    You ever did a bluff/call gone wrong then river card hits and you think "only way i win this hand if i bet big or ship it in"

    this happens all the time in poker and no matter if you're the person shoving or calling the guy w/ the most guts usually wins.
  12. MarkH MarkH is offline

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    Jan 10th, 2012 (1/10/2012 9:02pm) in reply to feedthemfish

    If, before you folded, you thought "his play makes no sense, looks like a bluff" then it's not your gut telling you to call it's your brain. If it wasn't till after you thought about the hand for awhile that you decided his play made no sense then it was your gut.

    Unlike others in this thread I approach my gut with caution. Most of the time it's a subconscious read on the play and correct but many times it's more conscious desire than subconscious read and your gut is telling you what you want to do, not what you need to do.
  13. tyson219 tyson219 is offline Moderator

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    Jan 10th, 2012 (1/10/2012 9:25pm) in reply to MarkH

     
    Originally Posted by MarkH View Post

    If, before you folded, you thought "his play makes no sense, looks like a bluff" then it's not your gut telling you to call it's your brain. If it wasn't till after you thought about the hand for awhile that you decided his play made no sense then it was your gut.

    Unlike others in this thread I approach my gut with caution. Most of the time it's a subconscious read on the play and correct but many times it's more conscious desire than subconscious read and your gut is telling you what you want to do, not what you need to do.

    ^^^ Great post. I was going to say something similar last week, but forgot about this thread. In general, I rarely "trust my gut". Instead, if my gut is telling me to do something different than I want to do, I use my timebank and consider villain's range, our perceived range, and how the hand has played out and then make the best decision I can. At times your gut instinct may tell you something, but generally you should be able to come to a logical conclusion as to why you have that feeling and make your decision based on that.

    My gut used to be a huge nit and force me to fold in spots where I should have been jamming or calling. It wasn't until I realized it was a fear of making a bad decision that allowed me to ignore my gut and instead make rational decisions.

    FWIW, this is a snap call in pretty much every HU game w/o a lot of history. No offense, but I would be very cautious about the stakes you play HU at if you don't realize this is a super snap call. Based on this hand alone, you sound like a very exploitable opponent.
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  14. taaffey taaffey is offline

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    Jan 10th, 2012 (1/10/2012 9:38pm) in reply to tyson219

    Nice post Tyson. I suggest you guys Blink by Malcolm Gladwell. While I don't agree with some of his pseudo-science conclusions its a great read and has some interesting concepts on snap decisions or 'thin slicing'.

    This rapid formulation of an opinion is called thin slicing, where someone uses their past experiences and expertise to form an opinion. A person can thin slice without even knowing that they are thin slicing. The book talks about how our adaptive unconscious is able to not only start to make these decisions for us without us being consciously aware but also our adaptive conscious is also able to send messages throughout our body that allows us to began to react without being consciously aware of why we’re reacting in a certain way. There is also a down side to thin slicing. Because most of thin slicing is based on personal experiences, sometimes these experiences can lead us to make the wrong decisions or conclusions
    Edited By: taaffey Jan 10th, 2012 at 09:39 PM
     
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