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Should I take this coin Flip?

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  1. jason7761 jason7761 is offline

    Harlow
    United Kingdom

    Posts: 46
    Joined: Apr 06

    Jun 7th, 2007 (6/7/2007 6:22pm)

    $10+1 normal sit and go......

    Player info:

    Me: playing tight as hell
    Big Staked06: had some good cards seams to be playing tight
    ShadyMo (the short stack) LAG his chip stack has been up and down like a whores drawers

    pokerstars Game #10319884569: Tournament #52286381, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2007/06/07 - 16:45:40 (ET)
    Table '52286381 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
    Seat 2: BigStacked06 (4865 in chips)
    Seat 3: ShadyMo (2025 in chips)
    Seat 5: Billygenius (3295 in chips)
    Seat 9: jason7761 (3315 in chips)
    BigStacked06: posts small blind 100
    ShadyMo: posts big blind 200
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to jason7761 [Ac Kh]
    Billygenius: folds
    jason7761: raises 400 to 600
    BigStacked06: raises 765 to 1365
    ShadyMo: folds
    jason7761: folds
    BigStacked06 collected 1400 from pot
    BigStacked06: shows [Jc Js] (a pair of Jacks)
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 1400 | Rake 0
    Seat 2: BigStacked06 (small blind) collected (1400)
    Seat 3: ShadyMo (big blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 5: Billygenius folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 9: jason7761 (button) folded before Flop

    Put him on a mid/high pair 10's to kings or AK and I was going to push or fold. I folded as i was sure the small stack would blow up at some point (i was right about him).

    Do you think the fold was wrong given the situation?
  2. sotti sotti is offline

    Portland, OR
    United States

    Posts: 1,342
    Joined: Sep 06

    Jun 7th, 2007 (6/7/2007 7:34pm) in reply to jason7761

    this is one of those situations where I think you honestly could've called to see the flop and gone no further than that.

    600+1365+200 = 2165 (total pot)/ 765 (to call) = 2.8:1 on your money, you are going to hit top pair on the flop 1 in 3 times meaning 2:1 for a call is your break even point.

    Calling and folding leaves you with about 2000 chips wich isn't substantially different from 2700 at this point in the s-n-g.

    Then again I'm a bit of a donk.
  3. lordxixor101 lordxixor101 is offline

    Westland, MI
    United States

    Posts: 6,364
    Joined: Mar 06

    Jun 8th, 2007 (6/8/2007 12:11pm) in reply to sotti

    This is tough. Folding keeps you in third, but everyone has reasonably healthy stacks here, even after the fold. If you call and win, you will be dominating a chip lead though, so if you play right and everyone plays by ICM, you would be a heavy favorite to win this thing.

    I hate just calling on a flop here. If you call, you are likely to miss (2/3 of the time) and then your folding. This also puts you right there for last. Plus, if you hit, there is no guarantee you're being paid off.

    Honesty here, I wonder how the ICM works out. I really think you have a strong shot to win here, so that's significantly worth more than 3rd. I bet you this is so close. It's not a bad fold (and, if you know the low chip stack is bad and will likely bust himself out, it makes it a lot easier to fold).

    Close call, not sure it's really that wrong either way you play (push/fold).
  4. BomboKlaat BomboKlaat is offline

    Bonmont
    Switzerland

    Posts: 1,030
    Joined: Jul 06

    Jun 8th, 2007 (6/8/2007 1:00pm) in reply to jason7761

    Vomit in your mouth, swallow, lather, rinse, repeat. This is just so awkward a spot. If you were shorter I would say shove. As it stands you can fold safely and still have 13bb's. You have to think you are racing at best here.

    While his reraise could just be good bigstack poker not letting you steal, it isn't really big enough for that and is more of a "I like my hand I'm going all the way" type of reraise. No need to get yourself involved in a race here with the table dynamic as it is. Stay away from the bigstack here and focus on opening/shoving the pot in position vs the other stacks which really need a hand to call you. Also, you have to take into account the lagtard and his propensity to get his chips in the middle. Is he weak/bad/dumb? If he is count on him to get his chips in in a poor spot. Fold and let others make mistakes which put them on the rails, the cl is telling you to go away, please do so.
  5. sotti sotti is offline

    Portland, OR
    United States

    Posts: 1,342
    Joined: Sep 06

    Jun 8th, 2007 (6/8/2007 3:08pm) in reply to lordxixor101

    ICM for shove call
    lose = 0
    win = 33.69
    v
    Fold = 20.74

    So you can see from those numbers above that a break even point for your equity is 61%, which you have against any upaired hand, but don't against any paired hand. On the balance of it I don't think coming over the top is a good idea.

    ICM for call (assuming he folds to an A or K on flop)
    call and hit = 28.38
    call and miss = 17.07
    v
    Folds still = 20.74

    where x is your percentage chance you need to win you have
    28.38x + 17.01(1-x) = 20.74 as the break even point X = 32% to break even on ICM.

    So being that a Kinng or an Ace will flop roughly a 1/3 of the time, calling isn't horrible either. Esspecially if you consider that you are in position and are very likely to get at leat one additional bet if you hit, any amount of money that goes into the pot after the flop will put you way ahead on ICM, Say he fires out another 1000 after the flop just to find out if you really have an A or a K, then you are at 31.21 then you are at a 25% to hit which puts calling way into your best option.
  6. sotti sotti is offline

    Portland, OR
    United States

    Posts: 1,342
    Joined: Sep 06

    Jun 8th, 2007 (6/8/2007 3:14pm) in reply to BomboKlaat

    racing at best? With AK hardly anything could be worse.

    He could have AA or KK, but I think the big stack can bully with a lot less than that. I would agree that AQ, KQ are less likely, but deffinetly possible.

    At best he's got the guy dominated and has odds to push over the top. At worst the guy has AA and he's crushed.
  7. GLMM GLMM is offline

    Whitman, MA
    United States

    Posts: 1,240
    Joined: May 06

    Jun 8th, 2007 (6/8/2007 3:36pm) in reply to sotti

    If the short stack was smaller,I'd say call / fold with the odds he 's giving you ..

    In this spot,4 handed, I think you reshove with A/K and try to take control of this sit and go..You want the $45 not the $18.

    ShortStack still has $2000 and could be around for a while,or worse,double up... You've got a premium hand, play to win.

    edit.."I was sure the small stack would blow up at some point (i was right about him)."

    ^^I just reread this,which could change my feelings a little bit..
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