donnie-

the question is if you think he would check say AK on that flop. or KQ. there aren't any other kings he should have really unless he has flatted 3bets on the button alot.

ALso, is that a pot size bet on the river?

I'm inclined to call there IF he has NOT ever played pot control and checked TP good kicker. If he has checked flops behind for deception than it's an uglier spot. doesn't he take a chance with QQ on river also since you never repped the king yourself?

BTW i think you need to cbet that flop.

I'd prefer a c-bet on the flop most of the time, but like halper said, there's nothing wrong with a delayed c-bet on the turn.

As played, I'm folding. Something between K-10 and K-Q fit perfectly with how he played the hand (right down to sitting there and requesting time pre-flop to figure out if he had the implied odds to see a flop). It's not a pot-sized river bet, but it's close enough for jazz...with these stacks, there's really no difference between 3/4-pot, pot, and shove.

Anything other than a King is air here, and I don't think he'd bet air enough to make it worth a call.

He shows up with AK here a ton. You would need a better read on the guy to call. There are a few of them capable of a bluff here with an ace but very few and their game becomes transparent after some time with them at the table. Most of the time a 3x pre at this buyin level is a big hand but some villians do this with weaker hands and 2x thier monsters.

Sick spot. You have a great stack still and should be able to pick up chips in much easier spots. I fold with out more of a read on opponent.

I'll bite, your up against a big stack that doesn't get out of line, why preflop raise here, and end up in a huge pot? I would either flat and play flop, or fold and go on.

As played, my guess from your statement that this guy might be sick of you and see you as a nut. This smells like a king, and I think K10+ is in his range.

Good post by P0KERDUUDE. But is a $5 MTT player capable of making this move this deep in the tournament? I complete agree that any capable player would jam their entire range and this is a call. Not sure though if your average $5 donk is capable of making this play.

I honestly would OPR villain and call if he has experience, otherwise leaning towards a fold.

 

Originally Posted by P0KERDUUDE

Well... I haven't played these limits in a long time, but the game is always evolving and his play doesn't seem too advanced if it is a bluff.

You just do not see too many bluffs at this level of BI played the way this hand was played. He opens in MP for 3x and plays this hand just like AK would be played at this BI. You will spot the players getting out of line in time at the table and can make adjustments in your own calling range as time goes by. I agree that at in a $26+ BI villians range would include more hands. I just see him showing up with AK more than 70% of the time in this spot.

The greater importance here is Donnie's stack size vrs calling and losing and folding. Folding allows him to play a broader range without being in shove/fold mode while there are still a bunch of 10-20bb stacks left. With only 22 players left in the tourney you are not seeing villian put a move on you very often.

You make very valid points here. I have been deep alot lately in spots very similar to this and have been hero calling too much. The reality is that donnie should not be in this spot period. He should be folding pre IMO vrs this stack with no reads that villian has been out of line.

I am excited to see what villian showed up with here.

 

Originally Posted by bonflizubi

At this buyin does anyone flat behind with AK and not just jam it in from the button? 90% of the time they get it in pre here and don't flat.

Also, a bluff is a bluff. And bluffs in lower buyins often get even more ridiculous and unthoughtful. I think a bluff makes up a decent part of the range here.

This is an interesting low stakes hand. According to OP, "Right now villain is down $600 having played just over 100 mtts with a $9 Av BI". Villain is scared money and wants to make a big cash. With 22 left, I don't see an inexperienced player jamming here without a K. Personally, I fold here. Here is my thought process:

1) I doubt it's AK because he'd probably jam. However, scared money could flat with AK because they don't want to flip and want to see a flop.

2) I think KT, KJ and KQ are in villain's flatting range.

3) I think villain checks behind on the flop because a) scared money and b) worried that KT-KQ is outkicked.

4) Flats the turn because still worried about being outkicked or maybe scared of the 9.

5) edit: Value bets the river because has the nuts. [thanks P0KERDUUDE]

In a $26+, I think this is an easy call because as said above, villain is shoving his entire range which is much more heavily weighted towards hands without a K. In a <$10 MTT, I don't think a losing player is bluffing in this spot very often. He's checking behind any pocket pair and A high. I think you're likely to see a K 70%+ of the time.

I hope I can explain this properly. I agree that if you are looking at this hand only the villian has a much wider range than only a K but in this situation with similar stack sizes the villian here is checking to keep the pot smaller and not lose his whole stack as well as get value from weaker hands that 3 bet him pre. This is VERY common at this BI level close to FT.

When he calls the turn he will have the K most of the time. The play at this part of the tourney is not fast paced and full of crazy bluffs and shoves. In the micro level players do slow down as you approach the FT. They rarely bluff. The players that are getting out of line are easy to spot/exploit and if donnie had noted this it would be a much easier call but that is not the case here. When he bets the river that big, if he is bluffing, congrats to him, he played the hand super well. As nice as it sounds to have 100bbs heading into the FT bubble the reality is that there are so many easy spots to pick up chips there is no reason to put this much on the line in a spot that is very marginal when we still have a great stack to play with. Flame away but I do have a little experience in this BI with a number of wins in the last few weeks/years. I have also crashed and burned by getting myself into spots like this.

My guess is donnie folded and is second guessing his decision (as villians image may have changed as the tourney progressed) or called and villian showed KX.

And for what its worth, this player is not down $900 at the time of this tourney. He was up over 2K.

I would also like to say this is a great hand to break down and I do like and respect the responses today. Very interesting spot to say the least and interesting to see other views.

 

Originally Posted by bonflizubi

At this buyin does anyone flat behind with AK and not just jam it in from the button? 90% of the time they get it in pre here and don't flat.

Also, a bluff is a bluff. And bluffs in lower buyins often get even more ridiculous and unthoughtful. I think a bluff makes up a decent part of the range here.

Yes. It is very common at this BI for the button to flat behind with AK with these stack sizes.

 

Originally Posted by tyson219

Good post. Slight correction to the above though -- he won 2.1k in the tournament being discussed. Based on OPR, he was a losing or close to breakeven player at the time Donnie looked him up.

His full tracking OPR puts him up $4268 abi $13 over 534 tourneys.

 

Originally Posted by Boandaro

His full tracking OPR puts him up $4268 abi $13 over 534 tourneys.

I use DB obv fail on my part, but stats aside I def appreciate all the feedback on this hand. As Boandaro stated, I did fold, I just felt that someone this close to the FT in a $5 donkament isnt going to have it in their game to bet JJ/TT type hand to blow me off of my hand (what really looks like air, actually). I played this super passively, and as I stated in OP I OBVIOUSLY should have blocker bet the river, if I blocker bet the river for like 30% of pot or something its a different matter.

Idk its really tough to say if he had it, its so close its sick, but I just really felt like he wasnt going to be bluffing. Pokerduude, I love your reasoning for calling here, I can pretty much guarantee a win in this thing if I call and win and get such a massive stack to push push push the $5 donks. I really just wanted to know everyones thoughts, so thanks everyone for your input, I'm def still 2nd guessing my fold, but we'll never know what he had.

I'd still appreciate input from anyone who has it

Also thought I'd add that his normal raise sizing pre is 3xing it. He's folded a few times to a 3bet, but like I stated in OP he's picked his spot and when someone does decide to play back he'd always shown the nuts.